Transnational Threats

1
Transnational Threats in an
Interdependent World
2
An Interdependent World

• Peace of Westphalia
• Contemplated inviolate borders
• United Nations
• Contemplated a co-dependent world
• Neither scheme is viable today
• From 1648 until Post WWII, threats to security
  were defined by borders
• Democracy within grasp of most
• Aggressor states no longer the primary cause of
  transnational problems

3
End of Cold WarThe Fall of the Wall

• Loosed tensions originally confined by a bi-polar
  world
• 191 nations in the world
• Created additional space for OC which became
  increasingly transnational
• Privatization permitted corruption
• Started the trend toward open borders
• Weak states foster crime and conflict
• All conflict becomes a breeding ground for
  corruption, organized and transnational crime and
  terrorism

4
Six Clusters of Threat

• Terrorism
• Transnational OC
• Inter-State Conflict
• Internal Violence (incl. civil war/genocide)
• Economic Social threats (incl. disease)
• WMD

5
Universal Problems

• 50 of conflicts ending in past two decades
  erupted again
• Increasing numbers of armed, non-state parties
• Increasingly target civilians
• 13 million internally displaced in Africa alone
• Public Corruption

6
Prevention and Remediation

• A capable state is the best preventive
• Strengthen capabilities of host nation
• Help alienate the enemy
• All capabilities are needed at the same time
• Ability to work through issues is more important
  than learning how it was done last time

7
International Terrorism
Loosely Affiliated Extremists
State Sponsored
Formalized Groups Formalized Groups
8
Al-Qaida Operational Methods

• Three styles of attack
• A Team - most dedicated disciplined
• B Team affiliated groups
• C Team sympathetic extremists
• Analysis of methodology may assist in detection

9
Methods of Attack

• Unconventional Plots
• WMD attacks
• Attacks on hazardous material sights
• Innovative use of available resources

• Historical Methods
• Conventional Explosives
• Car Bombs
• Truck Bombs
• Boat Bombs
• Aircraft Bombs
• SAM attacks
• Assassinations
• Kidnappings
• Maimings

10
Bali, Indonesia 10/12/02
Car Bomb
Hundreds killed and missing
11
Mombassa Kenya 11/28/02
an Israeli charter jet and an Israeli-owned
hotel in the Kenyan city of Mombasa.
took place on the 55th anniversary of the United
Nation's plan to partition Palestine
Rocket attack on aircraft
12
Mombassa Kenya 11/28/02
Wanted Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, a resident of
Majengo in Mombasa
Attack on tourist hotel
13
Paris/Miami 12/23/01
Shoe Bomber
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Global Jihad

• Of all the terrorist groups targeting the US
  today, al-Qaida and its surrogates remain one of
  the most disciplined and committed.
• They have an international network with a
  worldwide presence
• They have the capacity to infiltrate US without
  detection
• Through legal or illegal means

15
The Threat, contd.
FBI investigations since 9/11 have revealed an
extensive militant Islamic presence in the US.

• The FBI has identified many Sunni extremists we
  strongly suspect of being involved in terrorist
  activities.
• Many of the extremists identified are linked to
  al-Qa'ida.

16
The Threat, contd.

• Activities of these subjects center on
  fundraising, recruitment, and training.
• Investigations have not revealed any evidence
  that these groups and individuals are actively
  engaged in planning or carrying out a terrorist
  attack.
• Their support structure, however, is
  sufficiently well-developed that one or more
  groups could be ramped up by al-Qaida to carry
  out operations in the US.

17
The Threat, contd.
We are concerned about al-Qaidas efforts to
recruit US citizens and permanent residents for
its support network.

• Al-Qaida recognizes operational advantages from
  recruiting US citizens who are much less likely
  to come to the attention of law enforcement.

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Likely Targets

• Highest priority targets most likely include
• White House, US Capitol, and other symbolic
  targets
• Commercial airliners, and railroads
• New York City landmarks
• CIA Headquarters
• Nuclear power plants, chemical facilities and oil
  and gas facilities and
• Military facilities.

19
Likely Targets contd.
Soft Targets Soft targets typically include
public facilities or civilian structures such as
restaurants, nightclubs, schools, universities,
health care facilities, shopping centers,
amusement parks, tourist attractions, hotels,
apartment buildings, sporting venues, water and
energy-providing facilities, emergency services
providers, churches, and other religious sites.
20
7/7/2005 British Train Bombing

• 7 July 2005
• 3 bombs exploded in London underground train
  system within seconds of each other at 850 am
• Bomb exploded on above ground bus approximately 1
  hour later
• More than 30 killed and 700 injured
• Occurred on first day of G-8 Summit, which was
  being hosted by Great Britain, and one day after
  London was chosen to host 2012 Summer Olympics
• Al-Qaeda elements

21
7/21/2005 British Train Bombing

• 21 July 2005
• Attempted to detonate 3 underground bombs and 1
  above ground bomb in similar fashion to 7 July
  bombing
• 5 suspects arrested in London and Rome

22
Eurasian Organized Crime (EOC) Italian
Organized Crime (IOC) Balkan Organized Crime (BOC)
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EURASIAN ORGANIZED CRIME

• Global Collaborators
• International Apparatus
• Active in 53 Countries
• 30 Eurasian Groups Operating in U.S.

• Sophisticated Criminal Schemes
• Estimated Membership
• 8,059 Groups
• 800 TIL
• 35,000 members

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350 FBI Investigations in 35 Field Divisions
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ASIAN ORGANIZED CRIME
Chinese Triads. Japanese Boryokudan
(Yakuza). Sophisticated International Syndicates
(Vietnamese, Korean, Other Southeast
Asian). Heroin/Drug Trafficking Illegal Alien
Smuggling Credit Card/Fraud Swindles
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Why Possible Nexus

• Greed/Profit motive of OC
• OC access to capital and international
  banking
• OC experience with ML and existing ML
  contacts
• OC access to weapons and counterfeit
  passports and other identity documents
• OC experience in smuggling contraband/people
• OC access to counterfeit currency

29
The Washington Times 10/8/02 The Russian
press reports that the FSB has developed
information representatives of al Qaeda have
met with OC groups in Russia with respect
to obtaining nuclear material.
Corriere della Sera 9/20/02 2 magistrates
in Naples were quoted as saying the Camorra
furnished weapons and identity documents to
Algerian terrorist cells based in Naples and
Milan. The Algerian cells allegedly had ties to
al Qaeda.
30
The Washington Times, 12/12/02 On 12/12,03 the
Canadian Government banned all activities of the
Hizballah on Canadian territory and froze all
Hizballah monies/accounts. Law enforcement,
security, and immigration authorities claim that
Hizballah raised funds in Canada through
organized crime activities (e.g. auto theft) in
order to acquire military goods and identity
documents.
31
Hizballah Criminal Enterprise in Charlotte,
NC CE consisted of 10 Lebanese Criminal
Activity ML, Credit Card Fraud and Cigarette
Smuggling - 7 difference in tax
on carton of cigarettes in NC vs. MI. -
The enterprise operated tobacco shops in NC and
trucked the cigarettes to MI. - Printed
counterfeit tax stamps. - Portion of
profit remitted in cash via courier to Hizballah
in the Lebanon.
Acquired GPS, Night Vision devices, Cameras, and
Binoculars for a known Hizballah subject in
Canada. Indicted/convicted for RICO, ML,
Providing Material Support to a Terrorist
Organization.
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Islamic DTOs support of al Qaeda

• FBI San Diego Drug Squad investigation
• With the cooperation of Hong Kong law
  enforcement, 2 Pakistanis, one naturalized
  Indian, were arrested as the result of an FBI
  UCO on 9/29/02 in Hong Kong and indicted on
  10/30/02 in San Diego for
• Import of Heroin Hashish (Title 21 USC 950,
  952)
• Furnishing Material Support to al Qaeda (18 USC
  2339B) - MANPADS
• For bin Ladens people

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National Counterterrorism Strategy

• Emphasis on PREVENTION
• Expanded intelligence base
• Improved sharing of threat information
• Enhanced analysis and cooperative contingency
  planning
• If incident occurs
• Investigate, apprehend and prosecute

34
SolutionConcurrent Intelligence / Law
Enforcement Strategy

• Intelligence
• FBI-JTTF, CIA, DoD,
• Foreign Intel Services,
• Other
• -Exploitation of intel to
• identify Al-Qaeda
• operations/operatives
• in the US and abroad
• -Technical
• -Intel (foreign/domestic)
• -Enemy Combatant
• -Voluntary interviews

• Recruitment
• FBI-JTTF, CIA
• -Domestic
• -Abroad

Criminal Disruption -FBI-JTTF, DOJ-CTS, USAO,
DoD-CID -Immigration Charges -Criminal
Violations -18 USC 956/960 -18 USC
2339(a)(b) -Other state/local charges
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Investigative Tools

• Electronic Surveillance
• Title III
• FISA
• Document Production
• Subpoena
• NSL
• Forensic Science
• Behavioral Analysis
• Gumshoe Police Work

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International Working Groups and Task Forces

• Southeast European Cooperative Initiative (SECI)
• FBI / Russian MVD Joint Working Group
• FBI / Hungarian National Police OC Task Force
  Budapest, Hungary
• Italian American Working Group
• Pantheon Project
• Central European Working Group

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Remedies and Problems

• Law Enforcement
• Force
• Economic Persuasion
• Political Persuasion
• Diplomacy

• Domestic v. Intl Law
• Jurisdiction
• Venue
• Access to Information
• Evidence
• Witnesses
• Extradition

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FUTURE NEEDS

• Minimum Standards
• Transnational Investigatory capability
• Openness in Banking
• Crack-down on Money Laundering

• Tighter Control on Electronic Money
• Global Asset Forfeiture
• International Bank Regulation