GLOBALIZATION and TRANSNATIONAL THREATS (Terrorism and Crime)

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GLOBALIZATION andTRANSNATIONAL
THREATS(Terrorism and Crime)

• M.E. (Spike) Bowman
• Deputy,
• National Counterintelligence Executive

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World Order The Promise

• Peace of Westphalia
• Territorial Integrity
• Political Independence
• Equality in Law
• Inherent Right of Self-defense
• World War I
• World War II
• United Nations

3
World Order The Present

• WW II generated a new middle class
• The world became smaller
• Democracy visible to all
• 194 Nations

4
End of Cold War

• Loosed tensions originally confined by a bi-polar
  world
• Weak states foster crime and conflict
• All conflict becomes a breeding ground for
  corruption, organized and transnational crime and
  terrorism
• Balkans, Iraq, former Soviet client states,
  African conflict areas

5
Fall of the Wall

• Added to tensions
• Created additional space for OC which became
  increasing transnational
• Privatization permitted corruption
• Started the trend toward open borders

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Threats are Transnational

• From 1648 until Post WWII, threats to security
  were defined by borders
• Aggressor states no longer the primary cause of
  transnational problems
• Threats exist in weakened states

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Contemporary Threats

• International Terrorism
• Official Corruption
• Environment
• Natural Disaster
• WMD/Proliferation
• Genocide
• Inter-State Conflict

• Espionage
• Economic Espionage
• Transnational Organized Crime
• Supply Chain
• Front Companies
• Cyber threats
• Virtual Reality

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U.N. CharterArticle 2

• Para. 3 All members shall settle their
  international disputes by peaceful means in such
  a manner that international peace and security,
  and justice, are not endangered.
• Para. 4 All members shall refrain in their
  international relations from the threat or use of
  force against the territorial integrity or
  political independence of any state, or in any
  other manner inconsistent with the purposes of
  the United Nations.

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How Vulnerable Are We?

• 7,500 miles of U.S. border
• 96,000 miles of coast and navigable water
• 351 commercial ports
• 500 million people enter the US every year
• Including 330 million non-U.S. citizens
• 11.2 million trucks enter the US every year
• 2.2 million rail cars enter the US every year
• 7,500 foreign ships make 51,000 port calls in the
  US every year

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A Typical Day for USCB

• Processed
• More than 1 million entrants (60 aliens)
• 69,000 truck, rail and sea-borne containers
• 333,000 POV
• Executed 3,300 arrests
• Seized
• 5,400 pounds of narcotics
• 77,000 in illicit or undeclared currency
• 330,000 in fraudulent commercial merchandise

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Transnational ThreatHuman Trafficking

• Increases spread of disease
• 1997 4 million annually
• Trends
• Large increase in US in past 10 years

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Exotic Transnational Threats

• May-June 2003, human monkeypox outbreak
• Came from pet Prairie Dogs
• Got it from Gabon Rats smuggled into US
• Environmental Crime
• Fastest growing OC activity
• High cost of disposing of pollutants and
  chemicals
• Dumping radioactive wastes growing
• Exotic animals and animal parts

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Ttransnational Infectious Disease Threat

• ¼ of all disease is caused by environmental
  exposure that can be avoided
• 33 of disease in children under 5 is linked to
  the environment
• 3.5 Million deaths/year are from three diseases
• Malaria
• Lower respiratory infections
• Diarrheal diseases
• 20 known diseases - including a treatment
  resistant form of tuberculosis (TB), malaria, and
  cholera--have reemerged

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Transnational Counterfeiting

• A syrupy poison, diethylene glycol, is an
  indispensable part of the modern world, an
  industrial solvent and prime ingredient in some
  antifreeze
• It has been loaded into all varieties of medicine
  cough syrup, fever medication, injectable drugs
  a result of counterfeiters who profit by
  substituting the sweet-tasting solvent for a
  safe, more expensive syrup, usually glycerin,
  commonly used in drugs, food, toothpaste and
  other products.
• Thousands have died from this
• three of the last four cases originated in
  China, a major source of counterfeit drugs.

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Transnational Weapons Threats

• WMD and Proliferation
• E.g., Soviet Arms in the Ukraine
• - left more than 2.5 M tons of conventional
  munitions unsecured unstable 6M landmines
• 68 tons transferred to Burkina Faso alone
• 103 tons to Ivory Coast
• 10,000 MANPADS unaccounted for from Crimean depot
• NATO allocated 30M to dispose of this
• At current rate, a 50-year project
• Belarus
• Sent more than 500M worth of Katyusha rockets to
  Iran, Syria, North Korea and the Sudan

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The Transnational Cyber ThreatNational Security
Implications

• Cyber Savvy Hired Guns to facilitate
  Terrorist/Hostile nations agenda
• Using criminals to conduct
• Phishing
• DDoS
• Intrusions
• Identity Theft
• Other Crimes on their behalf
• Virtual Reality

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Questions For the Audience

• When the UN Charter was written, threats to the
  national security were military and territorial
  in nature.
• What defensive rights do nations possess with
  respect to activities that threaten to
  destabilize society threats such as terrorism,
  international organized crime, genocide and
  environmental harms?
• How does Westphalian sovereignty address these
  threats?
• Are there circumstances in which borders should
  not be a barrier to meeting these threats?

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International Terrorism
Loosely Affiliated Extremists
State Sponsored
Formalized Groups
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Threat Assessment The Threat
Al-Qaida and its surrogates remain the top
terrorist threat

• Al-Qaida maintains ability to inflict
  significant casualties inside the US with little
  warning.
• In 2003 they were negotiating for purchase of
  three Russian nuclear devices
• Putin says he can not account for all of
  Moscows 10,000 nuclear weapons

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Al-Qaida Operational Methods

• Three styles of attack
• A Team - most dedicated disciplined
• B Team affiliated groups
• C Team sympathetic extremists
• D Team home grown extremists
• Analysis of methodology may assist in detection

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Al-Qaida

• The A team the 19 hijacker model
• Plot hatched overseas
• Operating in US with external support
• Highly disciplined dedicated
• Self contained team
• Tight operational security

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USS Cole Bombing
October 12, 2000 Location Aden, Yemen Killed
17 Injured 37
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Al-Qaida

• The B team the Bali Nightclub model
• Small teams
• Sympathetic allies
• Supported financially by al-Qaida
• Probably training by al-Qaida

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Bali, Indonesia 10/12/02
Car Bomb
Hundreds killed and missing
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Al-Qaida

• The C team the shoe bomber model
• Individual
• Recruited from radical Mosque, Community Center,
  or prison
• Training Camp attendance on own initiative
• Expendable
• Test operation

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Paris/Miami 12/23/01
Shoe Bomber
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Likely Targets

• Highest priority targets most likely include
• White House, US Capitol, and other symbolic
  targets
• Commercial airliners, and railroads
• New York City landmarks
• CIA Headquarters
• Nuclear power plants, chemical facilities and oil
  and gas facilities and Military facilities.

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Likely Targets contd.
Soft Targets Soft targets typically include
public facilities or civilian structures such as
restaurants, nightclubs, schools, universities,
health care facilities, shopping centers,
amusement parks, tourist attractions, hotels,
apartment buildings, sporting venues, water and
energy-providing facilities, emergency services
providers, churches, and other religious sites.
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Increased Low-Tech Terrorism

• Terrorist incidents up 7X since 2004
• Casualties up 40 from 2005 to 2006
• 91 increase in Middle East and South Asia
• Some 5,000 pro-al Qaeda Internet sites
• Sleeper Cells

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The D Team7/7/2005 British Train Bombing

• 7 July 2005
• 3 bombs exploded in London underground train
  system within seconds of each other at 850 am
• Bomb exploded on above ground bus approximately 1
  hour later
• More than 30 killed and 700 injured
• Occurred on first day of G-8 Summit, which was
  being hosted by Great Britain, and one day after
  London was chosen to host 2012 Summer Olympics
• Al-Qaeda elements

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7/21/2005 British Train Bombing

• 21 July 2005
• Attempted to detonate 3 underground bombs and 1
  above ground bomb in similar fashion to 7 July
  bombing
• 5 suspects arrested in London and Rome

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Sympathizers

• Survey of 800,000 ethnic Pakistani Britons showed
  roughly 9,000 approved of these attacks
• Former head of MI-5 said 1,600 actively plotting
  attacks
• At least 200 networks based in Britain
• Officially engages in racial and religious
  profiling

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U.K. v. U.S.

• FBI with 13,000 agents for 300M people is roughly
  comparable to MI-5s 2,400 agents for 60M people
• Do we have sleeper cells we havent found?
• DNI McConnell, May 2007 said We are actually
  missing a significant portion of what we should
  be getting.

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Challenges Facing CTD Operations

• Volume of Incoming Threats
• Demands of Major Investigations
• Non-Stop Administrative Taskings
• Lack of Tools to Manage Information
• Is It Really Terrorism?

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THE LONER

• Oklahoma University Bombing
• 1 October 2005 at approximately 800 pm
• Joel Henry Hinrichs
• Committed suicide by detonating explosives
  approximately 100 yards from Oklahoma University
  football stadium packed with more than 84,000
  people
• Explosive used was TATP (triacetone triperoxide)
  which was same explosive used by Shoe Bomber
  Richard Reid
• No nexus to terrorism identified to date but
  investigated as terrorism until fully vetted

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Transnational Organized Crime
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Eurasian Organized Crime (EOC) Italian
Organized Crime (IOC) Balkan Organized Crime (BOC)
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350 FBI Investigations in 35 Field Divisions
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Criminal Activities
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ASIAN ORGANIZED CRIME
Chinese Triads. Japanese Boryokudan
(Yakuza). Sophisticated International Syndicates
(Vietnamese, Korean, Other Southeast
Asian). Heroin/Drug Trafficking Illegal Alien
Smuggling Credit Card/Fraud Swindles
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Italian Organized Crime

• The Sicilian Mafia
• The Neapolitan Camorra
• The Calabrian nDrangheta
• The Puglian Sacra Corona Unita.

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2006

• Corrupt officials in Iraqi oil industry have been
  funding the insurgency
• Six Balkan nations have formed a pact to fight OC
  and terrorism
• They say the OC is funding terrorism in their
  region
• UN officials have called for greater cooperation
  in fighting OC which, they say, fuels terrorism
  and destabilizes nations

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International Working Groups and Task Forces

• Southeast European Cooperative Initiative (SECI)
• FBI / Russian MVD Joint Working Group
• FBI / Hungarian National Police OC Task Force
  Budapest, Hungary
• Italian American Working Group
• Pantheon Project
• Central European Working Group

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Remedies and Problems

• Law Enforcement
• Force
• Economic Persuasion
• Political Persuasion
• Diplomacy

• Domestic v. Intl Law
• Jurisdiction
• Venue
• Access to Information
• Evidence
• Witnesses
• Extradition

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FUTURE NEEDS

• Minimum Standards
• Transnational Investigatory capability
• Openness in Banking
• Crack-down on Money Laundering

• Tighter Control on Electronic Money
• Global Asset Forfeiture
• International Bank Regulation

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What Skill Sets are Required?

• Foreign Affairs
• Intelligence Community
• Information
• Law Enforcement
• Forensics
• Interrogation
• Other Governments
• Financial Agencies
• NGOs
• Administrators

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QUESTIONS?
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The 4th and 5th Amendments

• In Context of
• National Security

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The Fourth Amendment

• The right of the people to be secure in their
  persons, houses, papers and effects, against
  unreasonable searches and seizures shall not be
  violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon
  probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation,
  and particularly describing the place to be
  searched and the persons or thing to be seized.

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The 4th Amendment

• 100 years without controversy
• General Warrant was the impetus
• Primary arena of contention is ELSUR
• Property-based
• Olmstead 1928
• Brandeis dissent

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Exception for National Security

• World War I
• World War II
• Hoover and the FBI

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Social Concern for Privacy

• Griswold 1965
• Katz 1967
• Settled arguments over which clause was the most
  important
• But, it preceded the most important national
  security concerns
• Keith 1971
• Church Committee Era
• Humphrey-Truong 1978/1982

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FISA

• Congress tried to occupy the entire arena of
  Electronic Surveillance
• Is that possible? Remember the Brandeis argument
• Compromise re USPs
• Represents a convergences of 1st and 4th
  amendment issues
• E.g. Operation Shamrock
• Physical Search added 1994 after Ames

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The Fourth Amendment

• The right of the people to be secure in their
  persons, houses, papers and effects, against
  unreasonable searches and seizures shall not be
  violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon
  probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation,
  and particularly describing the place to be
  searched and the persons or thing to be seized.

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The Fifth Amendment

• No person shall be . . . .be compelled in any
  criminal case to be a witness against himself,
  nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property,
  without due process of law nor shall private
  property be taken for public use, without just
  compensation.

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The 5th Amendment

• More limited impact on National Security
• Review of this arena can be unsatisfying
• EO 10450 1953
• Employment in federal service must be clearly
  consistent with the interests of the national
  security

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Liberty-Property-Due Process

• Green v. McElroy 1953
• Due Process
• Egan v. Navy - 1988
• Presumption of reviewability does not go to
  security clearances
• Webster v. Doe 1988
• Discretionary authority not reviewable (unless it
  is!)
• Koramatsu
• Military Necessity (vacated 1984)

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CIPA

• To meet the challenge of gray-mail
• Challenges on 5th Amendment grounds have failed