Title: Climate Change Plus
1Climate Change Plus
- Key Stewardship Drivers
- Presentation to MOFR Senior Leadership Team
- November 8, 2006
- Jim Snetsinger Chief Forester
- Ray Schultz ADM MPB Emergency Response
- Henry Benskin Deputy Chief Forester
2Today well cover
- Climate change and what well do to address it
through FFEI - MPB impact on mid-term timber supply
- MPB Socio-economic Implications - Ray Schultz
- Bio-energy Henry Benskin
3Climate Change
- Important driving issue
- Wide range of impacts to our business
- Here for the long term
- Happening now
4(No Transcript)
5Ecosystem changes
- Species selection is based on ecological (BEC)
zones - BEC zones in future may change due to climate,
affecting species and genetic suitability - Work needed on adjusting BEC system to adapt to
changing climate
6Hamann, A. and T. Wang. Ecology 2006
Current
2080s
7MOFR Role in Climate Change
- MOE leads provincial climate change file
- Under this umbrella, MOFR leads on forest and
range components - Our approach to develop a sound, measured,
informed response - Involve partners
8Climate Change Progress
- Task Team Report -13 recommendations
- Develop capacity to respond
- Improve knowledge through analysis, research
- Review operational policies and practices
- Technical Advisor in place
- Implement through FFEI
9Future Forest Ecosystems
- Impetus - increasing stress on BCs forests from
climate change (MPB, wildfires, droughts) - Purpose adapt forest management framework to
changing forest ecosystems - Objectives research, forecasting, monitoring,
policy evaluation change, extension (46
projects will deliver objectives) - Desired outcomes forest ecosystems remain
resilient to stress continue to provide basic
services, products benefits to society
10FFEI Process Next Steps
- Released draft recommendations - June 2006
- Consultation phase - June Sept 06
- Product revisions implementation planning Oct
Dec 06 - Implementation of projects starts Jan 07
- Integration of initiative into normal ministry
business within 3 years
11Climate Change/ FFEI Summary
- Climate change is a key driver of future business
- Touches all aspects
- Ecosystem work under way through FFEI
- Our corporate responsibility as stewards
- Learn more, get ready
12Stewardship and MPBProvincial Perspective
- Annual mortality peaked in 2004 (2005 red) at
139 million m³/year. - Estimate 420 million m3 of pine affected in the
20 TSAs with gt 10 pine. - About 36 of the provincial total (1.2 billion
cubic metres) already affected. - Preuplift AAC for the 20 TSAs - 39.4 million
m3/year. - Current AAC for 20 TSAs - 52.6 million m3/year.
- Postbeetle harvest for 20 TSAs 26 to 31
million m3/year depending on pine harvest focus
and duration.
13MPB - Provincial Perspective
Cumulative volume affected on the timber
harvesting land base
14MPB Protecting Mid-term Harvest
- Focus pre-uplift harvest in affected (gt 70 pine)
stands for as long as possible. - Direct all uplift volume (14.4 million m3/year
for 20 TSAs) in affected (gt 70 pine) stands. - Retain all stands with a live component that
makes them merchantable in the mid-term. - Retain stands with advanced regeneration that
could make them merchantable in the mid-term. - Encourage alternative uses for dead pine (i.e.
bioenergy) to prolong the duration of the uplift
and get stands back in production.
15MPB Monitoring Harvest
16MPB Key Considerations
- Harvest in affected stands (gt 70 pine) for as
long as possible is key to mid-term timber
supply. - Need to investigate whether policy or regulations
are impeding the harvest of affected pine stands. - Need to encourage innovative uses of the affected
resource. - Encourage non-timber uses of the forest.
- Regeneration strategies need to be mindful of
future insect outbreaks, climate change, fire
etc.
17MPB - Social and Economic Implications and Actions
- Ray L. Schultz, RPF
- Assistant Deputy Minister
- Mountain Pine Beetle Response
18Being The Low Cost Producer In Global Commodities
Thousands Of Jobs
- Consolidation of Ownership
- Consolidation of Milling Capacity
- Rationalisation of Contracting in the Woods
- Replacement of Workers With Technology
19Geographic Diversity In Socio-Economic Impacts
20Summary of Pressures and Opportunities
- Pressures
- Future Contraction In Commodity Solid Wood
- Uncertain Pulp Sector Future
- Loss Of Industrial Tax Base In Municipalities
- Historic Slow Economic Growth In Heart Of Epidemic
- Opportunities
- All Levels Of Government Aligning
- Technical Solutions To Extend Shelf Life
- Large Unexplored Region For Minerals and Energy
- Macro Economics Of Bioenergy Biorefining
- Value Added Wood
- Agriculture
- Inland Ports
21The Main Agents Of Change
- Cross-Government Response By BC Government
- Provincial Funding Approaching 200 million/3
Years - Federal Commitment Of 200 million
- First Nations MPB Initiative, First Nations
Forestry Council, Harmonisation of First Nations
Provincial Plan - Community Action Coalitions Omineca, Cariboo,
South - NDI and SDI Trust Funds
- Innovation Opportunity For Policy Community To
Stimulate Socio-Economic Responses
22Bio-Energy
- Henry Benskin Deputy Chief Forester
23Context for B.C. Wood Bio-energy Opportunities
- 7 million BDt/yr MPB logging residues
- 1 million BDt/yr incinerated beehive burner
- B.C.s net electricity imports 12
- grow by 1.5 /yr
- Beehive Burner emissions
- 0.5M BDt wood pellet exports
- Carbon constrained future
24Provincial Wood Bioenergy Strategy Project
- Co-led by MOFR, EMPR past 6 months
- Stakeholder and experts dialogue to identify best
business cases - Focus on short, medium and longer term
opportunities - MPB and other biomass sources
- Cross-walk with Alberta Fibre Roadmap
25Next Steps
- Strategy report completed mid-October/06
- Deputy and Ministers briefings
- Wood Bio-energy provision in BC Energy Plan?
- Directed BC Hydro Call for Wood Bio-energy
Proposals? - Implementation planning
26B.C. Bio-Superpower
- B.C. already is Canadas dominant producer of
bio-products - We have great biomass growing capacity
- MPB as a springboard towards bio-energy, forest
industry transition, eventual bio-refining, and
sustainable rural bio-economies? - Can we use our inherent strength in renewable
resources for strategic advantage?
27In Summary
- Proactive approach to climate change a key
business driver - Adaptation is progressing through FFEI
- Can mitigate mid-term timber supply by focusing
harvest in affected stands with more than 70
pine. - Options exist to counter socio-economic impacts
- Bio-energy offers promising potential
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