Title: Climate Change
1Climate Change
How is such change reliable detected? How can the
agents of change be identified in a
scientifically rigorous manner?
2Limiting Factors
- Climate Data is very noisy hard to discern
natural timescales - Past climate data has low time resolution
- Climate models do not know all the input physics
- Grid models have too coarse of resolution to
adequately account for the presence of clouds in
the grid cell. - System Lag time!
3Assumptions about our Atmosphere
- Its thin
- Its in hydrostatic equilibrium
- Its isothermal (where most of its mass is)
- Equation of state is that of an ideal gas
- These assumptions allow us to treat the
atmosphere as a thin, uniform slab of material at
constant density and temperature.
4Equilibrium Temperature
- Planet radiates as a blackbody in TE with
incoming solar radiation
A Albedo L 1370 watts per sq meter T
278(1-A)4 T 255K for A0.32 This is not the
right answer compared to observations
5The Role of the Atmosphere
Fo incident flux Ts transmission percentage
of short wavelength incoming radiation Tt
transmission percentage of outgoing long
wavelength radiation Fg Flux from ground Fa
Flux from the atmosphere.
Fo Fa TtFg Fg Fa TsFo Let Fa
Fo TtFg Ultimately get that Fg Fo The
transmission factors are set by atmospheric
chemical composition which human activities are
modifying
6Our Atmosphere
- TS 0.9 (Highly transparent)
- Tt 0.2 (fairly opaque)
- Fg 1.58Fo ? Tg 255(1.58)1/4 287K (limiting
case Tt 0 T300K )
Fa 0.68Fo Ta 255(0.68)1/4 245K
Net Effect Surface is warmed above equilibrium
temperature due to flux radiated by our
atmosphere. Atmosphere is therefore below the
equilibrium temperature.
7Why is Tt Relatively Low?
8Methane Broad absorption from 1.5 to 2.5 and
8-10 Microns
9Climate Forcing Terms
- Changes in atmospheric composition or properties
that are equivalent to flux changes (in Watts/m2) - Changes in Greenhouse gas mixture
- Changes in scattering properties
- Changes in cloud cover, thickness, and altitude.
10Average Global Energy Balance (340 Watts/M2
incoming)
- 14 absorbed by clouds
- 54 absorbed by atmosphere
- 20 reflected back by atmospheric molecules
- 68 reflected back by mostly high clouds
- 14 reflected by the service (170 reaches surface)
- 20 emitted by ground
- 102 emitted by oceans
- 88 emitted from clouds
- 130 emitted from greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere - 340 in 340 out
11Estimates of Climate Forcing
12Aerosols are Important but a very difficult mixed
scattering problem
13Pick a Model 2100 CO2 Doubling
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15Source of Uncertainties
- Roles of clouds and aerosols in radiative
transfer models? (e.g. scattering!) - Role of tropical convection and the water vapor
feedback loop? - How well do observations constrain the input
climate parameters? - How to weight the inputs for best fit statistical
model?
16Water Vapor Feedback
- Understanding large scale convection in the
tropics may be crucial ? this determines high
cumulonimbus clouds
17Effects could be significant
18Complete Feedback Models too Difficult to
reliably construct
19Those Pesky Swiss
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L19809,
2005 Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong
water vapor feedback increase temperature in
Europe Rolf Philipona Physikalisch-Meteorologische
s Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center,
Davos Dorf, Switzerland Bruno Dürr MeteoSwiss,
Zürich, Switzerland Atsumu Ohmura Institute for
Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology (ETH), Zürich,
Switzerland Christian Ruckstuhl Institute for
Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal
Institute of Technolog
20Is Water Vapor Increasing?
- Very difficult to accurately measure even with
satellites ? calibration issues and strong
seasonal variations plus El Nino fluctuations - But Tropics are everything
21The Potential Role of Methane
22Global Warming Potential
- TH Time Horizon (20 or 100 years)
- Ax increased forcing from X (Watts m2 kg)
- x(t) decay following some hypothetical
instantaneous release of X - Denominator is relevant quantities for CO2
23Methane GWP
- A Methane molecule has an atmospheric lifetime of
12 /- 3 years before its broken down through
chemical reactions involving OH- (Leaving some
CO2 as a by product) - On 100 year timescale GWP 23
- But, on 20 year timescale GWP 62
- Note that CO2 has atmospheric lifetime of 50-200
years depending on SST.
24Sources of Methane Emission
Rice Cows Sewage Oil and Gas Production
25Methane Tracks Population
A PUZZLE
26So There is a Scientifically Plausible Case to be
made for Potential Global Warming Based on
Changing Atmospheric Composition
- Can extant Data support this is actually
happening now?
27Poorest Evidence for Warming
28Problems with Mean Annual Temperature as and
Indicator
- How is it defined or measured?
- Role of Urbanization?
- Are measurements equally reliable in time?
- Does this just reveal small natural cycles that
would be lost in more distant climate record?
29Its not as simple as this
This is not the best chi2 fit to noisy data
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31Those Crazy Swiss Again
32Better Evidence for Climate Change
33Latest Data
34It May Even be Getting Wetter
35Local Measurements May be the real smoking guns
36Statistics of Extremes
37Other Indicators
- Rapid Loss of Arctic Ice Larson Ice Shelf
- Rapid retreat/loss of glaciers
- Increase vector borne diseases (insects)
- Worldwide coral bleaching
- Marine life migrations
- Heat Waves
- Earlier Spring/Snowmelt
- Increase droughts/wildfires
- Well documented rise of sea level (from thermal
expansion)
38Ice Core Data
Note Time Resolution is Not Sufficient to
reveal if CO2 Increases Cause Warming or Follow
Warming
39Using the Past as a Guide
40Do Tipping Points Exist in Climate?
- Does the system have critical phenomena?
Or do the various and somewhat unknown feedback
mechanisms serve to counter this?
41Possible Tipping Points
- Permafrost Melt In Western Siberia and the
release of vast amounts of stored methane - As the southern summer limit of Arctic sea ice
cover diminishes, the reflectivity of the earth
decreases and more heat is absorbed - The strength of the current in the Atlantic Ocean
between Africa and the east coast of America has
slowed by 30 percent from 1993-2005 due to the
sinking of cold, salty, dense waters in the North
Atlantic Ocean.
42Reverse the Thermohaline?
43Methane Burps
- Source of Bermuda Triangle Disappearances
- Norwegian Coast landslide 8150 years ago
44More tipping
- CO2 reaches 400 ppm (in 10 years) ? important to
remember that CO2 mixes out very slowly - CO2 equivalency 480 ppm (in 10 years) ? nominal
2 deg C response - Does this put us in an irrecoverable (on the 50
200 year timescale) position? - Methane is most serious potential feedback
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46What About Hurricanes
- Frequency
- Intensity
- Wind Radius
- Tracks
- No connection
- Length of time over 83 degree water
- Some measure of total power but no adequate
temporal baseline - Currently under analysis