Lunch time Discussion Forum

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Lunch time Discussion Forum

• Ian Wells
• School of Psychology

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An apology
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Why ?
Cynical Not quite so cynical Reality
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Graduateness

• The graduate will be able to evaluate evidence,
  arguments and assumptions, to reach sound
  judgements, and to communicate effectively
• (FHEQ, 2001)

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Its not new

• to see things as they are, to go right to the
  point, to disentangle a skein of thought, to
  detect what is sophistical and to discard what is
  irrelevant. It prepares him to fill any post with
  credit, and to master any subject with facility
• (Newman, 1852)

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What is it ?

• Evaluate evidence, arguments and assumptions
• Reach sound judgements
• Communicate Effectively

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Can we teach it ?
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How do we teach it ?

• Needs to be built from level 1
• Establish that their instinct might be wrong

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Disease X occurs in 1 in 1000 people. There is a
test for disease X that always successfully
detects the disease when it is present. The test
has a false-positive rate of 5. That is in 5
of cases the test will say that the disease is
present when, in fact, it is not. We select an
individual at random and test them for disease X.
The test says that they have the disease What
are the odds that they actually do have the
disease ?
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1000 people 1 has disease 999 dont 1 positive
test from person with disease 50 positive tests
from people who dont have disease 51 positive
tests out of 1000 people 1 person with
disease 1.96
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Assessment

• Pick a media story
• Explain what is wrong to a member of the public

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