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The 21st Century climate challenge
One generation plants a tree the next
generation gets the shade. Chinese Proverb
The countries most vulnerable are least able to
protect themselves. They also contribute least to
the global emissions of greenhouse gases. Without
action they will pay a high price for the actions
of others. Kofi Annan
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The 21st Century climate challenge

• Three distinctive characteristics
• It is cumulative
• The effects are irreversible
• Large time lags todays emissions are
  tomorrows problems
• It is global

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• The world has less than a decade to avoid
  dangerous climate change that could bring
  unprecedented human development reversals
• Climate change is a threat to humanity as a
  whole. But it is the poor, who face the most
  immediate and most severe human costs
• The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for
  a twin track approach that combines stringent
  mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less
  than 2 degree centigrade, with strengthened
  international cooperation on adaptation
• The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali
  is a unique opportunity to put the interests of
  the worlds poor and future generations at the
  heart of climate change negotiations

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Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up stocks
increasing temperatures

• In the past 100 years the earth has warmed 0.70C

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Some people walk more lightly than others

• The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2
  than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total
  population 472 million)
• The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a
  deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan
  Africa (720 million people)
• The 19 million people living in New York have a
  deeper footprint than the 766 million people
  living in the 50 least developed countries
• The distribution of current emissions points to
  an inverse relationship between climate change
  vulnerability and responsibility

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How many planets?

• If every person living in the developing world
  would have the same carbon footprint than an
  average person in the US or Canada, we would need
  the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2

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Charting a course away from climate change

• The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows
• The world cuts of 50 percent by 2050 with a
  peak by 2020
• Developed countries cuts of 80 percent by 2050
• Developing countries cuts of 20 percent by 2050
• with respect to 1990

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Disaster risk is skewed towards developing
countries

• 1 in 19 people are affected in developing
  countries
• The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in OECD
  countries
• A risk differential of 79

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Low human development traps

• The potential human costs of climate change have
  been understated
• Climate related risks force people into downward
  spirals of disadvantage that undermine future
  opportunities
• In Ethiopia, children exposed to a drought in
  early childhood are 36 percent more likely to be
  malnourished five years later a figure that
  translates into 2 million additional cases of
  child malnutrition
• Indian women born during a drought or a flood in
  the 1970s were 19 percent less likely to ever
  attend primary school

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Five human development tipping points

• Reduced agricultural productivity
• Heightened water insecurity
• Increased exposure to extreme weather events
• Collapse of ecosystems
• Increased health risks

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Climate change will hurt developing country
agriculture
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Heightened water insecurity glacial melting

• Glacial melting posses threats to more than 40
  percent of the worlds population.
• In the arid cost of Peru, 80 percent of fresh
  water originates from glacial melt.
• The flow of the Indus, could decline as much as
  70 percent
• In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into Amu
  Darya and Syr Darya rivers could restrict water
  for irrigation and hydroelectric power

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Extreme weather events

• The number of additional people experiencing
  coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332
  million for a 3o- 4o increase in temperature.
• Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371
  million by the end of the 21st century
• Possible consequences of one meter rise in sea
  level
• In Lower Egypt, 6 million people displaced and
  4,500 kms2 of farmland flooded
• In Vietnam, 22 million people displaced
• In Bangladesh, 18 percent of land area could be
  inundated affecting 11 percent of the population
• In the Maldives, more than 80 percent of land
  area is less than 1 meter above sea level

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Avoiding climate change strategies for
mitigation
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Problems setting emission reduction targets

• Insufficient ambition
• Insufficient urgency
• Inaccurate indicators
• Inadequate sectoral coverage
• Inconsistent base years
• Targets are de-linked from policies

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Pricing carbon emissions

• Market failure Polluters do not suffer the worse
  consequences of their own pollution
• Immediate challenge to push the price of carbon
  to a level consistent with the sustainable
  emissions pathway
• Ways to do it taxation and cap-and-trade and
  trade

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Taxation versus cap-and-trade

• Where should the price of carbon be set?
• How should the price be generated?
• Under carbon taxation emitters are required to
  pay for each tone of CO2 they produce
• Under cap-and-trade, the government sets an
  overall emissions cap and issues tradable
  allowances to allow business the right to emit

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The relative merits of taxation and cap-and-trade

• Administration
• Price predictability
• Revenue mobilization

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Adapting to the inevitable national action and
international cooperation
If you are neutral in a situation of injustice,
you have chosen the side of the
oppressor. Archbishop Desmond Tutu
An injustice committed against anyone is a
threat to everyone. Montesquieu
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Towards adaptation apartheid? Developed country
investments dwarf adaptation funds

• By mid-2007, actual multilateral financing
  delivered UNFCCC p US 26 millions
• This is equivalent to one week spending in floods
  defences in the UK
• Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and
  fulfillment of pledges present further
  limitations

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Investing in adaptation up to 2015

• Additional financing needs for climate proofing
  infrastructure and building resilience are
  estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015
• - Climate proofing infrastructure
• - Social protection
• - Strengthening disaster response

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The challenges for international cooperation

• Act on the G8 commitments and provide additional
  financing for adaptation
• Increase financing and regulatory support for the
  development of breakthrough technologies
• Enhance and provide incentives for technology
  transfers
• Create a Climate Change Mitigation Facility
  (CCMF) to mobilize US25-50 billion needed
  annually to support low-carbon transitions in
  LDCs
• Strengthen the capacity of developing countries
  to assess climate change risks
• Integrate adaptation into national planning and
  poverty reduction strategies
• Climate-proof all development interventions
• Streamline the current structure of dedicated
  multilateral funds
• Shift the focus of support from projects to
  program-based financing

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Greeces Role

• Greece accounts for 0.3 of Global emissions
• An average of 8.8 tons of CO2 per person
• These emissions levels are below those of high
  income OECD countries
• Greece has signed and ratified the Kyoto protocol
  and is bound to reduce its green house gas
  emissions by 25 by 2012

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The UN values the important contribution that
Greece can give to address the issues related to
climate change