Taking a Strategic View of Energy Efficiency and Heating

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Taking a Strategic View of Energy Efficiency and
Heating

• Peter Rickaby
• Rickaby Thompson Associates Ltd

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Taking a Strategic View ofEnergy Efficiency and
Heating

• The Peabody Trust (2002-03)
• Strategic Heating Review
• Existing stock (14,760)
• Circle Thirty-Three Housing Group (2004)
• Strategic Review of Energy Efficiency and Heating
• Existing stock (10,390) and new developments
• Innovation Programme Feasibility Study grant

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Four Strategic Questions

• How can we improve heating systems?
• Deliver more affordable warmth
• Reduce CO2 emissions
• 2 million/year for boilers
• Remove gas appliances from dwellings
• What are the technical options in 20-30 yrs?
• What should be our preferred options?
• Rising fuel prices
• Relentless pressure to reduce CO2 emissions
• How do we move towards them?
• Systems currently replaced every 10-15 years

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Circle Thirty-Three Review

• Stage 1
• Data assessment
• Housing stock profiles
• Stage 2
• Existing stock
• Stage 3
• New developments
• Stage 4
• Conclusions and recommendations

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Stage 2Existing Stock
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Stage 2Key Performance Indicators
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Stage 2Methodology

• Survey a sample of typical dwellings
• Make detailed energy efficiency analyses
• Identify appropriate improvements
• Estimate cost of improvement package
• Identify affordable warmth standard
• Apply improvements to whole stock
• Estimate implications of meeting the standards
• Review servicing options
• Including new and renewable energy technologies
• Identify options for different dwelling types

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Stage 2Typical Dwellings

• Improvements
• Insulation (walls and roofs)
• New double-glazed windows
• Controlled ventilation (extract fans)
• Improved heating systems
• Gas-fired condensing combi boilers
• Upgraded controls
• Energy efficient lighting

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Stage 2Typical Dwellings

• Improvements
• Average improvement cost 7255
• Average fuel cost saving 140/yr
• Average CO2 saving 2.0 t/yr
• Average cost of CO2 saving 5491/t
• Average DHL reduced by 1.43 kW (30)

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Stage 2Typical Dwellings

• Electricity for lights and appliances
• As existing, significant component of fuel costs
  and CO2 emissions
• After improvement, always largest component of
  costs and largest or second largest component of
  emissions

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Stage 2Energy Efficiency Standards

• Affordable Warmth
• Conventional proxy standard SAP 70
• Better proxy is NHER 8.0
• Takes location and all uses into account
• Both compatible with Decent Homes
• Overtaken by recent fuel price rises
• Ratings dont change but tenants costs do!
• Appropriate standard is now NHER 9.0

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Stage 2Implications of Standards
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Stage 2Servicing Options

• Options for blocks and estates
• Communal heating
• No gas-fired appliances in dwellings
• Opens further options CHP, biofuels
• Needs fabric improvements for cost savings
• Ground source heat pumps
• All electric option
• Needs fabric improvements for cost savings
• CO2 savings require off-site windpower

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Stage 2Servicing Options

• Options for individual dwellings
• Micro CHP
• Gas-fired appliances in dwellings
• Requires net metering
• Delivers fuel cost and CO2 savings
• All-electric heating
• No gas-fired appliances in dwellings
• Requires extensive insulation for cost savings
• Requires off-site windpower for CO2 savings

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Stage 2Servicing Options

• Additional options for all dwellings
• Solar water heating
• Proven, readily available technology
• Reduces costs and CO2 emissions
• High capital costs (bulk discounts available?)
• Photovoltaics
• Delivers significant fuel cost and CO2 savings
• Very high capital costs
• Requires net metering

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Stage 2Servicing Options

• Additional options for all dwellings
• Off-site windpower
• Buy output of remote wind turbines
• Re-sell to tenants (guaranteed competitive)
• Delivers zero CO2 electricity
• Requires improvements for cost savings

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Stage 2Conclusions

• Electricity use
• Significant component of tenants fuel costs and
  carbon dioxide emissions
• Servicing strategy should embrace
• Heating and hot water
• Electricity for lights and appliances

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Stage 2Conclusions

• Implications of affordable warmth targets
• NHER 9.0 by 2010
• Improve 6631 dwellings (1106/yr)
• Cost 29.8 million (5.0m/yr)
• NHER 9.0 by 2015
• Improve 6631 dwellings (603/yr)
• Cost 29.8 million (2.7m/yr)

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Stage 2Recommendations

• To deliver affordable warmth
• Plan for approximately 6000 improvements
• Required budget would be 20-30 million
• To ensure affordable warmth
• Seek more reductions in costs and emissions by
  introducing new and renewable energy

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Stage 2Recommendations

• Blocks and estates
• Convert to communal heating
• With CHP now and biofuels later
• Individual dwellings
• Convert to micro CHP
• All dwellings
• Install solar water heating
• Provide off-site windpower

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Stage 2Recommendations

• ESCO
• Provides stock-wide arms length management of
  heat and power supplies
• Establish via contract or partnership with energy
  supply organisation
• Should be part-owned by Circle Thirty-Three
  and/or by tenants

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Stage 3New Developments
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Stage 3Methodology

• Assess two typical developments
• High density
• Low density
• Consider strategic servicing options
• Conventional and renewable energy systems
• Tenants bills should not be increased
• CO2 emissions should not be increased
• Compare options using NPV analysis

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Stage 3Base Specifications

• U values
• Slightly better than current Building Regs
• Gas-fired CH
• Combi boiler (78 efficient)
• 30 low energy lights
• Ordinary appliances

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Stage 3High density
92 one- to three-bed flats in 5 to 8 storey blocks
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Stage 3High Density
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Stage 3High Density

• Options
• All-electric
• Electric CPSU with radiators
• Communal heating
• Gas-fired boilers
• CHP
• Solar hot water
• PVs
• Biomass boilers

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Stage 3High Density

• NPV analysis
• 60 year life and 3.5 discount rate
• Capital costs (extra over Base Case)
• Maintenance costs
• Replacement costs
• Running costs
• Social costs of CO2 (74 / tonne)

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Stage 3High Density

• Conclusions
• All electric systems reduce maintenance cost
• Difficult to get costs and emissions below Base
• Central boiler plant reduces maintenance cost
• Fuel costs and emissions can be below Base Case
• CHP is attractive but involves private wires
• Energy efficient appliances are an option
• Beware high replacement costs
• Off-site windpower is an interesting option

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Stage 3High Density

• Recommended options
• Load reduction measures
• Improved insulation and airtightness
• Solar water heating
• Energy efficient appliances?
• Photovoltaics?
• Communal heating
• Gas-fired boilers with CHP now
• Biomass boilers and CHP later

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Stage 3Low Density
22 houses
Approx 100 m
9 flats
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Stage 3Low Density
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Stage 3Low Density

• Base case performance
• 63 of fuel costs from lights and appliances
• 47 of emissions from lights and appliances
• Options
• All-electric
• Off-peak storage heaters
• Ground source heat pump
• Communal heating
• Gas-fired boilers
• CHP
• Biomass boilers

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Stage 3Low Density

• Conclusions
• Fewer options than high density scheme
• Electric storage heating
• Lower capital cost
• Difficult to reduce emissions to Base Case
• Ground source heat pump
• Could be worth investigating further
• Central boiler plant
• Higher capital cost (underground heat mains)
• Difficult to reduce overall NPV to base
• Worth exploring central boiler CHP further

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Stage 3Conclusions

• Individual gas-fired CH
• Cheap to install
• Relatively low fuel costs and emissions
• High maintenance costs
• Not robust against future fuel costs
• Should we be planning for the post gas era?
• Electricity
• Makes up 60 of costs, 40 of emissions

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Stage 3Recommendations

• For high density developments
• Consider communal heating with CHP
• Provide for future biofuel
• Consider solar water heating and off-site
  windpower
• For low density developments
• Install individual gas-fired CH (A rated boilers)
• Reduce fuel costs and emissions
• Insulation and airtightness
• Energy efficient lighting and appliances
• Off-site windpower

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Conclusion
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Conclusions

• A strategic review can provide
• Evaluation of affordable warmth targets
• Assessment of stock improvement costs
• For Decent Homes or affordable warmth
• Identification of servicing options
• For heating, hot water and electric power
• Servicing strategies
• Differentiated by built form or density
• Support for asset management strategies

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Questions and discussion
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Taking a Strategic View of Energy Efficiency and
Heating