Mediterranean Migration The view from the South

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Mediterranean Migration The view from the South

• Philippe Fargues
• November 2006

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Four main features of Med-MENA

• A major region of emigration
• A significant region of immigration
• Genuine policies on emigration and diasporas
• No real policy on immigration

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How Many Emigrants ?

• Source 1 Aggregated data from receiving
  countries
• Common sense idea OECD, CARIM
• Biased
• Missing countries
• Missing short- and mid-term migrants
• Missing naturalised migrants
• Missing irregular migrants
• Source 2 Consular records of origin countries
• Voluntary basis
• Missing unrecorded expatriates
• Counting re-emigrated persons
• Administrative nature

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Diverging Data

• Statistics of receiving countries
• ½ Consular records of origin countries
• - Dual citizens
• - Illegal immigrants
• - Temporary migrants

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Diverging interpretations

• How many Moroccans in the Netherlands?
• Dutch authorities 91,558
• Moroccan authorities 299,897 315,821
• 91,558 Moroccan nationals
• 76,842 Dutch citizens, 1st generation
• 131,497 2nd generation, both parents
• part of 15,924 2nd generation, one parent

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Emigration from Med-MENA - Levels

• 10 -15 million first-generation emigrants
• 5 of Med-MENA aggregated population
• More than 2.5 M nationals abroad
• Palestine
• Morocco
• Egypt
• More than 1.0 M nationals abroad
• Algeria
• More than 0.5 nationals abroad
• Tunisia
• Lebanon

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Emigration from Med-MENA --Trends
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High potential for future emigration

• Demographic factors
• Dramatic transition from high to low birth rates
• Pressure on labour markets peaking around 2015
• Lift of family constraints
• Economic factors
• Unemployment
• Low returns to skills
• Other factors
• Deficit of governance

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Europe hosts half Med-MENA migrants

• Main destinations
• EU(25) 45-50
• Arab oil countries40-45
• North America lt10
• Destination varies with origin
• Maghreb, Turkey EU(25)
• Mashreq Arab countries, North America, Australia

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A majority of low-skilled workers
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Med-MENA Policies on emigration

• Emigration is implicitly regarded positive
• Development and employment are top issues on the
  policy agendas
• Emigration is viewed as part of the solution
• Alleviates pressures on the labour market
• Brings financial resources
• Diasporas a resource that can be mobilised for
  national purposes
• Maximising the economic benefits
• Maintaining links with cultures of origin
• Granting some political rights

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Immigration into Med-MENA countriesLevels

• Recorded immigrants
• 3.6 million born-abroad residents
• 2.1 million non-nationals
• A majority of them in Israel and Palestine
• Unknown numbers of temporary and/or irregular
  migrants
• Sub-Saharans in the Maghreb
• Syrians in Lebanon
• Sudanese in Egypt
• Iraqis in Jordan
• Arabs transiting through Syria
• Moldavians and Georgians in Turkey

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Med-MENA Policies on immigration

• Immigration is explicitly regarded negative
• Protectionist approach of economic migration
• Prevention of illegal immigration
• Legal instruments (Morocco, Tunisia)
• Partnership
• Absence of integration projects