Some Key Features of Welfare Monitoring

1
Some Key Features of Welfare Monitoring
Evaluation in Ethiopia

• Discussion Note by Getahun Tafesse
• ECCO - CIDA
• DAG ME TWG
• June 16, 2006

2
Actors involved in Welfare Monitoring

• The Government of Ethiopia (GoE)
• National MOFED, PMO, NBE
• Sector ministries
• Regional and Woreda administrations
• Donors
• Bilateral
• Multilateral
• INGOs/ NGOs
• Relief and Development
• Advocacy
• Professional associations

3
Coordination Mechanisms/ Systems

• GoE
• National Account, BOP, Monetary
• National Welfare Monitoring System
• The National Medium-term Statistical Program set
  jointly by the then MEDaC now MoFED and the CSA
  a program of surveys and censuses
• Development Assistance Group (DAG)
• Technical Working Groups
• CRDA
• Thematic Focus Groups
• PANE
• Core Groups

4
Nature of Data and Sources

• National Integrated Households Survey Program -
  CSA
• Annual Agricultural Statistics
• Monthly Price Survey
• Other regular surveys, such as manufacturing,
  trade
• Periodic household surveys
• Routine administration/ institutional reports
  Sector Ministries
• Socio-economic needs assessment (non
  representative)
• Qualitative assessments (not regular)
• Participatory Poverty Assessments
• Focus Group Discussions

5
Nature of Data and Sources

• Some key points
• Sector specific information systems differ
  significantly from sector to sector
• Education facility level data
• Health data only by region
• No systematic integration of social data
• Lack of regular social devt index such as HDI
• No regular complementary qualitative data/ public
  opinion

6
Ministry of Finance Economic Development
Sector Ministries
Donors
INGOs/ NGOs
Welfare Monitoring Unit
Central Statistical Authority
Regional Bureaus
Programs
Branch Offices
Branch Offices
Woreda Desks Facilities
Projects
Projects
Surveys/ Censuses
Participatory Poverty Assessments
Grass Root Communities
7
Macro-economy Monitoring Evaluation
8
GoE Macro-economy ME System

• National Account (GDP calculation)
• CSA agricultural survey (forecast actual)
• CSA manufacturing and trade surveys
• Construction GoE capital expenditure
• Transport Communication ERA, EAL, ASL
• Public administration MoFED budget, expend
• Finance
• MoFED revenue and expenditure (federal monthly,
  general annual)
• Balance of Payment
• Customs (merchandize), EAL, ETC, ESL (service)
• External trade deficit NBE
• Foreign exchange rate NBE
• Monetary statistics
• Stock of money, credit, saving - NBE

9
Poverty/ Welfare Monitoring Evaluation
10
GoE Welfare Monitoring System

• WMS was established in 1996
• Part of Social Dimensions of Adjustment
• The emergence of the PRSP approach has
  strengthened the importance of the WMS
• WMU entrusted with the coordination of the ME
  system and, according to the SDPRP, the Unit is
  responsible for compiling, analyzing data
  collected by other institutions and for
  commissioning relevant research w.r.t. SDPRP
  implementation performance
• The Economic Planning and Policy Department is
  responsible for drafting the Annual Progress
  Report

11
GoE Welfare Monitoring System

• Objectives of the WMS
• Identify the social dimensions and effects of
  economic reform measures
• Monitor trends in welfare situation
• Scope Previously limited to SDA
• Current Expanded to embrace PRSP but now well
  realigned
• Major Data Sources
• HHICE survey (income and expenditure)
• Welfare Monitoring Survey (non-income)

12
Key Available Survey Data Sets

• Primary Data Collected under the WMS
• 1995/96 Household Income, Consumption and
  Expenditure Survey (HHICES)
• 1996 Welfare Monitoring Survey
• 1997 Participatory Poverty Assessment
• 1998 Welfare Monitoring Survey
• 1999/2000 HHICES
• 2000 Welfare Monitoring Survey
• 2004 Participatory Poverty Assessment
• 2004/05 HHICES
• 2004 Welfare Monitoring Survey

13
Available Data Sets and Sources

• Other sources of data
• Demographic and Health Survey
• National Account, Inflation
• Participatory Poverty Assessments
• Sector Ministries Reports
• Non-governmental actors

14
Welfare Monitoring System in Ethiopia
Chair
Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
National Welfare Monitoring Steering Committee
Ministry of Education
Member
Ministry of Health
Member
DAG involvement is suggested here
Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs
Member
Ministry of Women Affairs
Member
Ministry of Agriculture
Member
Ethiopian Road Authority
Member
National Welfare Monitoring Technical Advisory
Committee
Same as Above
INGOs/ NGOs
Central Statistical Authority
Welfare Monitoring Unit
Data Users
HHICES
Sector Reports
Welfare Monitoring Survey
PPAs
15
Key Issues on the existing WMS

• WMS not well aligned with PRSP approach
• WMU was formerly under the Minister of MEDaC
  giving it high profile and focus
• Capacity of WMU
• Rigorous, timely independent analyses of data
• The Destitute missing in existing data
• Welfare in pastoral areas not well captured
• Quality of services not captured
• Lack of consensus on available indicators

16
EducationMonitoring Evaluation
17
GoE Education ME System

• Ethiopia has an Education Management Information
  System (EMIS) which provides comprehensive, quite
  detailed information at Woreda and school levels
• The analysed and compiled data from the EMIS are
  being used for the formulation of macro-level
  education indicators, for policy analysis and
  planning at the central and regional levels.
• Annual Review of the Education Sector Development
  Programme

18
GoE Education ME System

• However, at the school and Woreda levels, their
  uses are mostly limited for statistical and
  administrative ends.
• The education statistics filled in by the
  schools at the beginning of the school year, is
  transmitted to the respective Woreda Education
  Offices for verification (and to Zonal Education
  staff), and for forwarding to the Regional
  Education Bureaus (REBs).
• The REBs compile, aggregate, analyse and transmit
  the data to the MOE, for further compilation and
  analysis for National Education Statistics Annual
  Abstract.

Some argued during the ARM that the validity of
the information would increase if the collection
of the data were to be made towards the end of
the school year, to catch to quality indicators
such as drop-out rates and textbook ratios.
19
Health Monitoring Evaluation
20
GoE Health ME System

• The management information system of the Health
  Ministry provides statistics at the regional
  level.
• Information disaggregated by woreda is not
  currently available.
• Annual Review of the Health Sector Development
  Program

21
GoE Health ME System

• Data sources
• MIS of the Ministry of Health
• Facilities based
• Programs based
• The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)
• is a regular national survey undertaken every
  five years and financed by donors. It focuses on
  RH and MCH including fertility data, and maternal
  and child mortality.
• Disease surveillance systems
• Special surveys HIV, Malaria, Polio

22
GoE Health ME System

• Recent Initiatives/ Developments
• The MOH has signed a harmonization plan for
  health sector financing with fourteen donors in
  2005

23
Food SecurityMonitoring Evaluation
24
GoE Food Security ME System

• The Ministry of Agricultural and Rural
  Development (MOARD) has accorded overall
  responsibility for programme ME to the FSCB.
• Food Security Programs ME Plan
• Monitoring Formats
• Baseline Survey
• Rapid Response Team (RRT) reports
• Mid-term Reviews
• Food Aid Assessment
• FSCB annual report
• WFP FAUIS

25
GoE Food Security ME System

• Other data sources
• Annual Agricultural Statistics
• Crop forecast, Actual crop assessment
• Woreda level Ethiopian Agricultural Sample
  Enumeration (EASE)
• Agricultural Census
• DPPA Early Warning System
• Vulnerability Profiles

26
RoadMonitoring Evaluation
27
GoE Road M E System

• Ethiopian Road Authority
• Road Sector Development Program
• Ethiopian Rural Travel and Transport Program

28
Initiatives and ChallengesMonitoring Evaluation
29
GoE Initiatives with ME Implications

• General
• Public Sector Capacity Building Program (PSCAP)
• Civil Service Reform
• Devolution of Power to Woreda
• Roll out of School Net
• Woreda net
• Specific
• APR of SDPRP/ PASDEP

30
GoE ME Related Initiatives

• "Strengthening SDPRP and Ethiopian MDGs
  Monitoring and Evaluation Action Plan
  encompassing the period 2004/05-2009/10.
• The Action Plan was presented to donors and civil
  society in a May 2004 ME workshop.
• Subsequently a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
  has been agreed between MoFED and donors for
  support to the implementation of the ME Action
  Plan at a total cost of USD8.5 million,
  covering the activities during the coming five
  years of both the WMU and the CSA.
• DAG support for Strengthening Data Collection,
  Analysis and Dissemination on Poverty Monitoring
  and the MDGs, extended both to the CSA and WMU

31
GoE ME Related Initiatives

• The ME Action Plan is aimed at strengthening the
  institutional capacity for monitoring and
  evaluating the SDPRP/ PASDEP and building the
  necessary feedback mechanisms
• The Strengthening Data Collection, Analysis and
  Dissemination on Poverty Monitoring and the MDGs
  is aimed at improving the quality of poverty data
  and analysis, and enhancing use and dissemination
  of data.
• DAG has established a pooled fund to support
  these initiatives in 2004.

32
Recent Initiatives with ME implications

• CSA Initiatives
• Strategic Plan (2005)
• CSA web site
• EthioInfo software, CD
• Local Area Network
• Wide Area Network
• Organize Admin. Data through Woreda Net
• Central Data Bank
• Woreda level WMS in 2006/07
• New Statistics Law Ethiopian Statistics
  Commission (Federal Statistics Council National
  Statistical Advisory Committee)

33
M E Challenges

• Challenges
• Moving away from counting activities and outputs
  to evaluating the contributions of outputs to
  outcomes and impact.
• Integration of data collection systems (within
  outside sectors)
• Simplifying data collection ensuring timely use
  of data
• Ensuring complementarities between
  administrative data and survey data
• Maximizing benefits from data analyses
• Gender desegregation
• Thorough/ in depth analyses of data sets
• Timely analyses of data

34
M E Challenges

• Challenges
• Generation of data disaggregated by Woreda
• Credible data analyses and getting consensuses on
  results
• Impressive Performance Report for 2003/04-05/06
• Ambitious targets for 2006-2010
• Use of data for decision making
• Tracking the medium term development agenda and
  the MDGs