The Reality and Challenge of Climate Change

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The Reality and Challengeof Climate Change

• Climate change and variability are continuous
  and inevitable
• Past range of variability is greater than the
  range observed in the instrumental record
• Climate change has major effects on all natural
  and human systems

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The National LevelClimate Change Science
Program (CCSP)

• CCSP Strategic Goals
• Climate variability and change
• Carbon cycle
• Ecosystems
• Water cycle
• Land use, land cover change
• USGS is providing the groundtruth for
• Long-term monitoring
• Process level research
• Geological record of climate change cycles
• Distinguishing natural from anthropogenic
• Ecological and physical impacts

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Our Niches (where we have both depth and
breadth)

• Other agencies increasingly look to USGS to be
  the unbiased source of good science
• We look at things at all scalesand can connect
  them
• We can integrate our monitoring, and can do
  targeted priority integration, pulling different
  sources of info together from different
  fields/different scales
• We can extend our understanding of a process to
  larger or more local scales
• We have fertile ground for collaboration with
  other disciplines

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What do we need to do to be a significant
contributor/participant?

• Play to our strengths
• Monitoring
• Process research
• Many processes we study have relevance to climate
  change e.g. volcanos are a major perturbation
• Climate history research
• Simulating future change
• Scenario-building / Consequences
• Dynamics
• Climate change leads to consequences

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Overriding ThemesIntegration Translation
Data Standards

• Can look into the past paleoclimate,
  paleoecology
• Can look underground
• Can look at carbon kinetics and processes by
  which landscapes evolve (at multiple timescales)
• Carbon sequestration
• Hydrates

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Future PathsThe Brass Rings

• Data Integration
• Many disparate datasets
• Decision Support
• Scenarios
• Our framework
• Consequences
• Climate history to inform scenarios
• Possible ranges of climate variability, change
  and earth system response
• Probabilities for various scenarios/risk
  statements

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Project Foci

• Sea level rise impacts and consequences
• Biogeochemistry in soils whats where and where
  is it going
• Carbonate systems, ancient and modern (e.g.
  corals)
• Highlatitude change and consequences
• Dryland systems
• Connections to water, weathering, sediment cycle
• Methane systems

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Climate - past, present and future
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What do we know with a high degree of confidence?
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Past 20,000 Years
Vikings to Greenland
Vikings Leave
warmer

• Small changes in temperature can lead to
  significant local human impacts
• Big temperature changes have occurred rapidly
  that could have significant global human impacts

YD
10C (18F) increase in several decades at end of
Younger Dryas interval (YD)
Temperature in Central Greenland (C)
colder
Alley, 2000
Thousands of years before present
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Past 100 Years Alaska

• Average U.S. temperature increased 1F over 100
  years
• Alaska has warmed 4F since 1950
• Higher latitudes more sensitive to climate
  change

• Changes in the ice cover of the
• globe are of great interest to
• American policymakers because of the magnitude of
  change of
• Permafrost degradation
• Melting of sea ice
• Rates of coastal erosion

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Past 100 Years Lower 48

• Average U.S. temperature increased 1F (0.6C).
• Warming was greatest at higher latitudes.
• Precipitation has increased

20th Century Trends in Temperature
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Increased Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
Contributing to Sea-level Rise
Red shows seasonal surface melt extent for two
extreme years. Surface melt increased 16
between 1992 and 2002.
K. Steffen
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As the Earth Warms, Sea-Level Rises
Two factors increased meltwater and thermal
expansion
Since the last glacial maximum (? 20,000 b.p.)

• sea level has risen 120 m (400 ft)

• past 100 years - 1.0 - 2.0mm/yr

Low lying coastal areas are proneto more
frequent inundation. As sea level rises,
flooding, erosion,and salt water intrusion will
accelerate.
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Future Science Challenges

• Rates of change
• Linkages among carbon, climate and terrestrial
  ecosystems
• Climate and water resources (availability, floods
  and drought)
• Thresholds and feedbacks poorly understood.

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Response to Climate Change
Projected Permafrost Degradation by 2100
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As Climate Warms The Hydrologic Cycle Intensifies
20th century
21st century
(Milly, Dunne and Vecchia, Nature, 2005)
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Linking Global to Regional Models
Source http//www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip2/ Kaplan et
al. (2003).
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USGS Role in Global Change Science

• Managers and Policymakers need
• Predictions and forecasts of
• impacts from future climate change
• USGS provides
• The physical and biological
• research and observation
• information that make the
• forecasts possible, and make
• existing forecasts more
• comprehensive and accurate.

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Climate Change Science is Relevant to all DOI
Bureaus
Major drivers
Direct effects
Coastal erosion and wetland loss
Changes in rainfall
Permafrost decline and sea ice retreat
Accelerated sea level rise
Higher evaporation rates Longer growing seasons
Changes in seasonal events Changes in timing and
volume of runoff Declining summer soil
moisture Loss of glaciers
Higher temperatures
More intense storms
Atmospheric C enrichment
Changes to landscape
Societal Impacts
Declines in surface water availability Offshore
facilities more vulnerable Loss of coastal storm
surge buffers More intense, more frequent
fires Emerging diseases
Shifts or loss of native plants and
animals Effects on natural area tourism Loss of
fresh water lens in coastal areas Inundation of
small islands
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The National LevelClimate Change Science
Program (CCSP)

• CCSP agencies are preparing 21 synthesis and
  assessment reports aimed at assessing climate
  change and its impacts
• DOI is contributing to 13 of the 21 studies and
  has the primary lead on
• Climate Change in the Arctic
• Abrupt Changes in Global Climate
• Ecosystem Thresholds
• USGS has been involved in global change science
  for over two decades

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USGS Global Change Programs Widely Distributed
Science
Science Disciplines
National Programs
Green Programs- formally tied to CCSP (26.4
Million in FY07)
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USGS Global Change Research The World
Perspective
Global Change Science at USGS A World
Perspective ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION 1. Global
Dust Virginia Garrison CLIMATE VARIABILITY 2.
Atlas of Glaciers of the World Ritchie
Williams 3. Climate Change, Land Use, and
Environmental Sensitivity Phase 2 (CLUES2) Bob
Thompson 4. Cryospheric Studies (borehole
paleothermometry) Gary Clow 5. WAIS Divide
Drilling Program National Ice Core Laboratory
(cooperative with NSF) Joan Fitzpatrick 6.
Eolian History of North America Daniel Muhs 7.
Global Warming Analysis (PRISM 3D) Harry
Dowsett ECOSYSTEMS 8. Resilience of Corals to
Climate Change and Their Use in Designing Marine
Reserves - Charles Birkeland 9. Functional
Linkages Between Climate, Anthropogenic Factors
and the Epipelagic Community of the North Pacific
Ocean - Jennifer Nielsen
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USGS Global Change Research The U.S.
Perspective
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Global Change Science Visualization Tool
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USGS Global Change Research The U.S.
Perspective

• CLIMATE VARIABILITY
• 1. Abrupt Climate Change Thomas Cronin
• 2. Effects of climatic variability and land use
  on American Drylands Richard Reynolds
• 3. Eolian History of North America Daniel Muhs
• 4. Exploring Future Flora, Environments, and
  Climates Through Simulations (EFFECTS) Sarah
  Shafer
• 5. Gulf of Mexico Climate and Environmental
  History Richard Poore
• 6. Holocene Climate of the Pacific Coasts - John
  Barron
• 7. Landscape Response to Quaternary Climate
  Change Milan Pavich
• 8. Paleohydrologic History of the Mojave Desert
  Region Marith Reheis
• 9. Western Lake/Catchment Systems (LACS) Joe
  Rosenbaum, Bob Thompson
• 10. Regional and Global Climate Models Steve
  Hostetler
• CARBON CYCLE
• 11. Carbon Cycling in the Gulf Coast of Maine
• Thomas Huntington
• 12. Vegetation and Hydrogeomorphic Relations
  Cliff Hupp
• 13. Sediment-Water Chemistry in Large River
  Systems
• Bob Stallard
• 14. Carbon Sequestration and Biogeochemical
  Cycling in Temperate
• Forests - Steven Perakis

• ECOSYSTEMS
• 17. Everglades Ecosystem History Lynn Wingard
• 18. Northern Gulf of Mexico Restoration Project
  Debra Willard
• 19. Effects of Climate Change on Population
  Trajectories, Tropic Interactions, and Ecosystems
  - Thomas Martin
• 20. Forest Dieback and Carbon Relations of
  Coastal Forests of the Southeast Under Changing
  Climate - Thomas Doyle
• 21. Interactions of Climate Change and Other
  Environmental Factors with Invasive Plant
  Infestation in the Arid West - Jonathan Friedman
• 22. Predicting the Persistence of Coastal
  Wetlands to Global Change Effects - Glenn
  Guntenspergen
• 23. Response of Western Mountain Ecosystems to
  Climatic Variability and Change - Nathan
  Stephenson
• 24. Sensitivity of Pacific Island Tropical
  Montane Cloud Forests to Climate Change David
  Foote
• 25. Spatial and Temporal Effects of Climate
  Change on Great Lakes Wetlands - Douglas Wilcox
• HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS
• 26. Navajo Nation Studies Margaret Hiza
  Redsteer
• LAND USE
• 27. Landcover Applications, Landscape Dynamics,
  and Global Change Larry Tieszen
• 28. Land Cover Trends Tom Loveland, William
  Acevedo
• 29. National Satellite Land Remote Sensing Data
  Archive (NSLRSDA) Tom Holm
• 20. Forest Dieback and Carbon Relations of
  Coastal Forests of the Southeast Under Changing
  Climate - Thomas Doyle
• WATER CYCLE
• 30. Benchmark Glaciers Ed Josbergerand, Bill
  Bidlake, Rod March

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USGS Global Change Research -- Alaska
CLIMATE VARIABILITY 1. Cryospheric Studies
(permafrost monitoring) Gary Clow 2. Ecosystem
and Climate History of Alaska Thomas Ager 3.
Eolian History of North America Daniel Muhs 4.
Paleoclimate record from deep core at Fort Yukon,
Alaska Thomas Ager CARBON CYCLE 5. Fate of
Carbon in Alaskan Landscapes Jennifer Harden 6.
Characterization of Biotic and Biogeochemical
Interactions at Environmental Interfaces Rob
Striegl, Kim Wickland ECOSYSTEMS 7. Polar Bear
Survival in a Vanishing Sea Ice Environment -
Steve Amstrup LAND USE 8. Landcover Applications,
Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change Larry
Tieszen 9. Land Cover Trends Tom Loveland,
William Acevedo 10. National Satellite Land
Remote Sensing Data Archive (NSLRSDA) Tom
Holm WATER CYCLE 11. Benchmark Glaciers Ed
Josbergerand, Bill Bidlake, Rod March 12. Trends
in Streamflow Characteristics in Alaska Glenn
Hodgkins
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The Global LevelDOI Role in Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

• Partner with global community
• Develop robust global on the ground monitoring
  networks
• Integrate terrestrial observations with satellite
  observations
• Support broad open dataand information sharing
  goals

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CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites

• DOI chairs CEOS in 2007
• 30 Nations and 20 participating organizations
• Both satellite and on the ground data are
  required to better monitor, characterize, and
  predict changes in the Earth system.

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The Way Forward

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Backup Slides

• Chesapeake LIDAR baseline and 2100 projection
• Carbon Cycle
• Emissions
• Permafrost
• Wildfires
• Streamflow
• Ecosystem Response
• Land Resources

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Global Change Sea Level Rise Blackwater
National Wildlife Refuge Area, 2002
Open water Intertidal marsh
High marsh
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Global Change Sea Level Rise IPCC projection,
average case scenario, 2100 (6.2 mm/yr rise)
Open water Intertidal marsh
High marsh
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The Natural Carbon Cycleand Anthropogenic Carbon
Dioxide
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Increased Methane Emissions With Permafrost Thaw

• Collapse wetlands can form when permafrost
  melts.
• These wetlands release 15 to 30 times more
  methane to the atmosphere per year than
  permafrost soils.
• Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Emissions
  from widespread collapse wetland formation could
  have strong positive feedbacks on climate
  warming.

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Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) from the Yukon
River Contributes Nutrients to the Arctic Ocean
Food Web
DOC

• The amount of DOC carried from the
  Yukon River to the Bering Sea during
  summer has decreased in recent years.
• The decreased amount is thought to be emitted to
  the atmosphere as greenhouse gases.
• This may have important consequences to climate
  warming and to the Arctic Ocean food web.

Striegl et al., 2005 2007
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Carbon Cycle Research and Impacts
Projected Permafrost Degradation by 2100
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Carbon, Climate and Wildfires

• Extremely dry conditions and resultant high fuel
  levels lead to numerous wildfires
• that cause
• Carbon emissions to atmosphere
• Permafrost degradation
• Mercury release
• Increased GHG

Brooks Range
Seward Peninsula
Fairbanks
Alaska Range
Anchorage
MODIS Image Summer, 2004
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Global Change and Streamflow
USGS used 12 climate models to simulate 21st
Century global warming and related streamflow
changes

• Results
• Orange and red areas represent decreasing
  streamflow
• Blue areas represent increasing streamflow
• change in runoff by 2050 under greenhouse
  scenarios, 10 to 30 decreases in runoff in
  western US.

Milly, Dunne, and Vecchia, 2005, Global pattern
of trends in streamflow and water availability in
a changing climate Nature, p. 347-350.
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Ecosystems Research and Responses
Source http//www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip Kaplan et al.
(2003).
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Tools for Assessing Land Resources (Senegal)
Current and seasonal vegetation production
(MODIS NDVI)
Images of land surface (Landsat)
Land Use
Land Productivity (MODIS)
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The Energy-Climate Feedback Loop
Hydrocarbon Energy Production and Use
Global Warming Sea-Level Rise Loss of
Biodiversity Ecosystem Health Water
Availability
Impacts on Hydropower Production Impacts on
Oil and Gas Production and Transportation
Infrastructure Energy transport Provides for New
Exploration Frontiers (Arctic Ocean) Enhanced
Transport
Climate Change
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The Way Forward