Climate Change, Impacts, and Responses: Building a DOI Strategy

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Climate Change, Impacts, and Responses
Building a DOI Strategy

• Tom Armstrong
• Senior Advisor for Global Change Programs
• USGS

U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological
Survey
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The Reality and Challengeof Climate Change

• Climate change and variability are continuous
  and inevitable
• Past range of variability is greater than the
  range observed in the instrumental record
• Climate change has major effects on all natural
  and human systems

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Climate - Past, Present and Future
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What Do We Know With a High Degree of Confidence?
Source IPCC, Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Past Climate Change
Source IPCC, Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Past 20,000 Years
Vikings to Greenland
Vikings Leave
warmer

• Small changes in temperature can lead to
  significant local human impacts
• Big temperature changes have occurred rapidly
  that could have significant global human impacts

YD
10C increase in several decades at end of
Younger Dryas interval (YD)
Temperature in Central Greenland (C)
colder
Alley, 2000
Thousands of years before present
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Geologic Past of Climate Change
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Climate Change Natural vs. Anthropogenic
Source IPCC, Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Modeling the Future
Source IPCC, Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Modeling the Future
Source IPCC, Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Modeling the Future
Source IPCC, Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Key Impacts Related to Climate Change

• Water availability and drought impacts in
  stressed and arid regions
• Carbon cycle, fire, biodiversity, energy, and
  the economy
• Sea-level rise and strong storm impacts on
  human and natural resources
• Changing species and habitat distributions on
  the federal landscape

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Past 100 Years Alaska

• Average U.S. temperature increased 1F over 100
  years
• Alaska has warmed 4F since 1950
• Higher latitudes more sensitive to climate
  change

• Changes in the ice cover of the
• globe are of great interest to
• American policymakers because of the magnitude of
  change of
• Permafrost degradation
• Melting of sea ice
• Rates of coastal erosion

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Past 100 Years Lower 48

• Average U.S. temperature increased 1F (0.6C).
• Warming was greatest at higher latitudes.
• Precipitation has increased

20th Century Trends in Temperature
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Increased Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
Contributing to Sea-level Rise
Red shows seasonal surface melt extent for two
extreme years. Surface melt increased 16
between 1992 and 2002.
K. Steffen
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As the Earth Warms, Sea Level Rises
Due to two factors ice decline and thermal
expansion
Since the last glacial maximum (? 20,000 b.p.)

• sea level has risen 120 m (400 ft)

• past 100 years - 1.0 - 2.0mm/yr

Low lying coastal areas are proneto more
frequent inundation. As sea level rises,
flooding, erosion,and salt water intrusion will
accelerate.
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As Climate Warms The Hydrologic Cycle Intensifies
20th century
21st century
(Milly, Dunne and Vecchia, Nature, 2005)
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Linking Global to Regional Models
Source http//www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip2/ Kaplan et
al. (2003).
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The National LevelClimate Change Science
Program (CCSP)

• CCSP agencies are preparing 21 synthesis and
  assessment reports aimed at assessing climate
  change and its impacts
• DOI is contributing to 13 of the 21 studies and
  has the primary lead on
• Climate Change in the Arctic
• Abrupt Changes in Global Climate
• Ecosystem Thresholds
• USGS has been involved in global change science
  for over two decades

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Future Science Challenges

• Rates of change
• Linkages among carbon, climate and terrestrial
  ecosystems
• Climate and water resources (availability, floods
  and drought)
• Thresholds and feedbacks poorly understood.

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Climate Change Science is Relevant to all DOI
Bureaus
Direct Effects
Major Drivers
Coastal erosion and wetland loss
Changes in rainfall
Permafrost decline and sea ice retreat
Accelerated sea level rise
Higher evaporation rates Longer growing seasons
Changes in seasonal events Changes in timing and
volume of runoff Declining summer soil
moisture Loss of glaciers
Higher temperatures
More intense storms
Atmospheric C enrichment
Changes to landscape
Societal Impacts
Declines in surface water availability Offshore
facilities more vulnerable Loss of coastal storm
surge buffers More intense, more frequent
fires Emerging diseases
Shifts or loss of native plants and
animals Effects on natural area tourism Loss of
fresh water lens in coastal areas Inundation of
small islands
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DOI Climate Change Leadership The Way Forward

• Develop a DOI integrated science and monitoring
  plan
• Integrate existing monitoring networks
• Adopt an adaptive management
• approach with USGS addressing
• key resources for DOI bureaus
• Build decision-making capabilities
• centered on a robust Global
• Change Information Management
• System (GC-IMS)
• Improve integration and access
• to USGS data sets crucial to
• climate change science and
• resource management
• Identify and fill critical resource