DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES IN HONG KONG

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND CHALLENGES IN HONG
KONG

• by
• Wong Siu-lun
• Centre of Asian Studies
• The University of Hong Kong
• Governing Hong Kong talk series, School of
  Humanities and Social Science, Hong Kong
  University of Science and Technology, 3 March 2006

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Hong Kongs Demographic Challenges

• Rapid demographic transition
• Changes in migration flow
• Decline in diversity?
• Policy response and public opinion
  Contradictions?
• Topics for further research

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Hong Kongs Demographic Transition

• Fertility decline extremely low total fertility
  rate of 927 children per 1,000 women in 2001
• Long life expectancy projected to reach 82 for
  men and 88 for women in 2031
• Aging a quarter of the population expected to
  be aged 65 or above by 2031
• Shrinking workforce prime working age
  population declines
• Rapid demographic transition compressed in
  less than 50 years

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Total Fertility Rates of Hong Kong and Selected
Low Fertility Economies, 2001

• Hong Kong 0.93
• Singapore 1.41
• Japan 1.33
• Germany 1.35
• Denmark 1.75
• Netherlands 1.71
• Norway 1.78
• Sweden 1.57
• United Kingdom 1.63
• Australia 1.73
• U.S.A. 2.03
• Source Demographic Statistics Section, Census
  and Statistics Department

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Hong Kong Population Pyramid 1961
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Hong Kong Population Pyramid 2001
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Source The Fifth National Population Census,
2000
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Source The Fifth National Population Census, 2000
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Source The Fifth National Population Census, 2000
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Shenzhens Population Pyramid 2000
Source The Fifth National Population Census,
2000
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Number of Domestic Migrants in the Four Selected
Cities in the Mainland
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Changes in Migration Flow in Hong Kong

• Illegal immigrants from the Chinese mainland
• 1980 150,089
• 1999 12,170
• Legal immigrants from the Chinese mainland
• 150 per day
• 55,000 per year
• Skilled immigrants
• Foreign professionals 16,700 (2001)
• Mainland professionals 268 (2001)
• Foreign domestic workers
• 1982 21,517
• 2002 237,104
• Imported workers
• 2002 1,200

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Decline in Diversity?

• 2001 Population Census only 5 non-ethnic
  Chinese
• This 5 comprised mainly of Filipinos,
  Indonesians and nationals of Southeast Asian
  origin
• 95 ethnic Chinese diverse migration experience
• Not quite multi-ethnic, but rather multi-cultural
• Linkages to overseas Chinese communities to be
  strengthened?
• Increased mobility who is a Hong Konger?
• Citizenship rights and obligations tax revenue

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Policy Response and Public Opinion
Contradictions?

• Policy response in 2003
• Formulated by task force led by Chief Secretary
• Not the specific responsibility of any bureau or
  department
• Public opinion poll on population problems in 2004

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Policy Recommendations

• The One Way Permit Scheme
• Training and Other Needs of New Arrivals
• Education and Manpower Policy
• Admission of Mainland Professionals and Talent
• Investment Immigrants
• Policies Impacting on Childbirth
• Elderly Policy
• Growing Transient Population Foreign Domestic
  Helpers
• Eligibility for Public Benefits
• Portability of Benefits
• Need for Regular Review

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Public Attitudes 2004 Would Hong Kongs
population structure cause problems for the
society?
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Public Attitudes 2004 Do you agree that HKs
fertility rate will continue to drop?
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Public Attitudes 2004 Do you agree that the
process of ageing will continue to quicken in
Hong Kong?
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Public Attitudes 2004 Do you think it is
necessary for the government to formulate
policies to promote fertility?
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Public Attitude 2004 Do you think it is
necessary for the government to formulate
policies to raise the retirement age?
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Public Opinion 2004 Do you think it is
necessary for the government to formulate
policies to attract immigrants?
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Public Attitude 2004 In your view, what is
the most urgent population problem that needs to
be solved?
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Topics for Further Research

• Reasons for rapid fertility decline comparative
  studies with Hong Kong emigrant communities
  abroad
• Relationship between migration and
  entrepreneurship decline in entrepreneurial
  spirit in Hong Kong?
• Impact of foreign domestic workers on youth
  development decline in achievement motivation?