David M. Legler

1
US CLIVAR science initiatives, future strategy
and links to international CLIVAR SSG-16
Meeting May 2009

• David M. Legler
• U.S. CLIVAR Office
• U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability
  Program
• www.usclivar.org
• legler_at_usclivar.org

2
Messages

• US CLIVAR moving ahead on drought decadal
  themes, and a number of other activities. Third
  theme (to be identified at our Summit mtg).
• US CLIVAR-lead activities and WCRP cross-cuts
  (e.g. extremes, decadal) have been very visible
  and have garnered enthusiasm engagement amongst
  US agencies and US scientists.
• New opportunities for CLIVAR abound
• Coordination between US and Intl CLIVAR
  activities/Panels is lacking - worrisome.
• Which of new imperatives be implemented? How?

3
US CLIVAR Themes and Activities

• Drought (initiated in 2007)
• DRICOMP Evaluation of in existing model runs -
  mechanisms that contribute towards
  drought/drying.
• Drought Working Group Modeling experiments
  exploring sources of multi-season drought
  predictability development of model-based
  drought indices
• Drought Workshop October 2008 (100 attendees)
• Next steps - under development (internationally
  under WCRP extremes cross-cut and within US
  CLIVAR)
• Decadal Variability/Predictability (just getting
  up to speed)
• Western Boundary Current Working Group
• Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
  (AMOC)
• Decadal Predictability Working Group just
  started
• Various process studies plus AMOC may tell us
  more about possible important processes, PLUS
  observation systems, model initialization
• Links to prolonged drought
• Model evaluation program (future activity?)

Third US CLIVAR theme to be decided at our July
Summit - input?
4
U.S. CLIVAR Organization
US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee
Inter-Agency Group (IAG) Federal Program Managers
Committee
U.S. CLIVAR Office
Best Practices Research Priorities Coordination
Predictability, Predictions Applications
Interface (PPAI)
Panels
Phenomenology, Observations, Synthesis (POS)
Process Studies Model improvement (PSMI)
International CLIVAR

• Western boundary current (workshop Feb 2009)
• High-latitude fluxes (workshop Feb 2010)
• Decadal Predictability (initiated Jan 2009, June
  2009 mtg)

Working Groups
Working Groups (short-term)
5
Other US CLIVAR Activities

• Process Studies/Model Improvement Panel
• Model improvement CPTs (call for new proposals
  in 2009)
• Process Studies
• Best practices and assessment CLIMODE, VOCALS,
  DIMES, IASCLIP, DYNAMO, etc (increasing
  multidisciplinary)
• Predictability/Predictions Applications
  Interface Panel
• Drought and Decadal Working Groups
• Earth system modeling/prediction links to marine
  ecosystems. NCAR Summer Colloquium (Aug 2-14)
• Tropical (model) biases
• Post-Doc program targeting applications
• Phenomenology, Observations, Synthesis Panel
• Western Boundary Current Working Group
• Contributing to and building on Oceanobs09
• High-latitude flux working group
• Integrated Earth System Analyses (IESA)

On the horizon??? Attribution, aerosols and
climate, abrupt change/tipping points, ocean
carbon, ocean acidification, polar climate
changes, many others
6
Opportunity
US Ocean Research Priorities Plan (ORPP)
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) Implications for Rapid Climate Change A
Near-Term Priority (1 of 4) of the ORPP

• Stated Outcomes
• Enhanced understanding of the AMOC system
• Design of a comprehensive MOC observation and
  monitoring program.
• New forecasting capabilities
• Improved ocean models, coupled models, and ocean
  analyses for their initialization.
• Characterization of the impacts and feedbacks of
  changes in the MOC on ecosystems, carbon budgets,
  and regional climate.

• New investment (multi-million) and focusing of
  existing resources (100 people at recent AMOC
  workshop)
• AMOC Implementation Strategy released 10/24/07
• Intl CLIVAR Atlantic Panel is trying to help
  coordinate internationally
• How to strengthen ties to decadal and
  observational activities????

Linked to CCSP
7
Prospects for Evaluations of CMIP5 runs?
Opportunity

• CMIP5 model results provide new opportunities.
• Scope of a model-evaluation-type program for AR5?
  
• Decadal runs (US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability
  Working Group) (some interest by the UK)?
• Value added in CMIP5 models (complexity,
  fidelity)?
• Regional, high resolution applications-focused?
• US agency interest in supporting research
  proposals

What role will CLIVAR assume to coordinate and
encourage international analyses of CMIP5 runs?
8
US - Intl CLIVAR Coordination

• US CLIVAR-lead activities WCRP cross-cuts (e.g.
  extremes, decadal) have been very visible and
  have garnered enthusiasm engagement amongst US
  agencies, as well as US and Intl scientists.
• Coordination (and communication) between many US
  and Intl CLIVAR activities/Panels is lacking -
  this is worrisome.
• With a few exceptions, US CLIVAR links to Intl
  CLIVAR Panels are non-existent. This handicaps
  intl research activities and ideas that would
  benefit from significant US exposure, feedback,
  and engagement.
• Lack of visibility of Intl CLIVAR panel
  activities in the US weakens US federal research
  agency support for Intl CLIVAR costs

9
Other Thoughts

• How will CLIVAR take advantage of Oceanobs09?
• Changes in response to the WCRP review?
• How will new imperatives be implemented?
• Will imperatives come as add-ons or as true new
  foci for CLIVAR? How thin can CLIVAR spread
  itself?
• News from Washington
• Based on peer review of the successes of US
  CLIVAR Project Office activities and future
  plans, the US agencies intend to fund its
  activities for five more years (to 2013).
• All US federal research agencies are now trying
  harder to position and justify their research in
  the context of providing useful knowledge and
  services for decisions and policies. While
  climate science driven by need toimprove
  understanding remains important, it is to
  CLIVARs advantage to think carefully and
  strategically about investing resources in areas
  of research that can be more responsive to
  demands from the climate services community