WEATHER MODIFICATION

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WEATHER MODIFICATION

• An Upper Basin Perspective On Winter Cloud Seeding

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BACKGROUNDColorado River Basin Growth and Water
Demand

• Population Increase
• Current Level of Development
• Drought
• Uncertain Hydrology

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Basin States Growth Projections

• Population in 1000s
• state 2005 2025
• Arizona 5230 6412
• California 34,441 49,285
• Nevada 2070 2612
• Total 41,741 58,009
• 39 increase 16 million people

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Basin States Growth Projection

• state 2005 2025
• Colorado 4468 5188
• New Mexico 2016 2612
• Utah 2477 3487
• Wyoming 559 702
• total 9520 11,989
• 26 increase 2 1/2 Million people

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Lower Basin Uses

• Arizona, California and Nevada using nearly 100
  of their apportionment
• Lake Mead Inflow (normal) 9.1MAF
• Lake Mead Outflow Evap 10MAF
• Declining Lake Mead Storage
• Current Uses May Exceed Inflow

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THE DROUGHT

• 5 years of extreme drought (2000-2004)
• Unregulated inflows 62,59,25,51,49
• Powell fell to 33 capacity 145 ftlt full
• 2005 - 105 of ave. Powell 31 feet
• 2006 73 of ave.
• Is the drought over???

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UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE NATURAL FLOW

• Tree Ring Hydrology Predicts More Significant
  Droughts
• Climate Change Warming could reduce the natural
  flow

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Basin States Initiative

• Shortage plan
• Coordinated reservoir operations
• Efficiency
• Conservation
• Augmentation
• Weather modification

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THE NEED FOR AUGMENTATION

• Shortage Plan
• Coordinated Reservoir Operations
• Efficiency
• Conservation
• Augmentation every alternative
• Weather Modification

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Upper Colorado River Commission Study

• Potential Use of Winter Cloud Seeding to Augment
  the Flow of the Colorado River
• North American Weather Consultants in Sandy Utah
• Don Griffith - Meteorologist

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Recent seeding programs
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Identification of Cloud Seeding Potential

• Existing Areas to be enhanced and extended
• New Potential Areas To Be Seeded

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Previous Cloud Seeding Studies

• Name date water yield
• BOR 68 1.87maf
• Stanford Res In 72 1.15maf
• North Am Wea 73 1.31maf

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Study Conclusions

• Range of expected increase in snowpack 5-15
• Increase in flow from existing seeded areas _at_10
  575,000 ac-ft/yr
• Increase in flow from new seeded areas _at_ 10
  650,000 ac-ft/yr
• Total increase _at_ 10 1.4 Maf/yr

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STUDY CONCLUSIONS CONT.

• Estimated cost for new programs 4.8 million
• Estimated upgrades to existing programs - 2.1
  million
• Total cost - 7million
• Cost per acre foot - 5

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RECOMMENDATIONS

• Just Do It