Weather Modification Legislation

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Weather Modification Legislation Looking for
partnerships at the local, state, and federal
levels WSWC August 9th, 2007
Bozeman, MT Joe Busto CWCB - Weather
Modification Permitting Chair, North American
Interstate Weather Modification Council
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A little about the NAIWMC

• The North American Interstate Weather
  Modification Council (NAIWMC) is a non-profit,
  tax-exempt organization comprised of regulatory
  agencies, sponsoring organizations, and research
  institutions involved in atmospheric water
  resource management technology, commonly known as
  weather modification or cloud seeding. The NAIWMC
  exists to facilitate the free exchange of cloud
  seeding information in North America.
• Member States CA, NV, UT, CO, WY, KS, ND, OK, TX
• We want Idaho and New Mexico as well
• Chair, Joe Busto-CWCB, Vice-Chair Tom Ryan-MWDSC
  at least until April 2009 (water managers)
• http//www.naiwmc.org/
• Best part is not the more meetings but when you
  look at other the states you learn what to and
  what not to do and band together seeking federal
  partnerships.

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2006 States w/ Wx Mod Programs
Snowpack augmentation states CA, NV, ID, UT,
WY, CO
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Weather Modification Methods
Aircraft Ejectable flares, dry ice and burn in
place flares Ground manual generators
automated generators
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Snowpack Augmentation Conceptual Model
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The History of Weather Modification
The Cold Box experiments in the 1940s Vince
Shafer, Irving Langmuir Bernard Vonnegut
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Dr. Ed Holroyds Instant Snowstorm June 2007 is
a replication of the moment (we can modify
weather) the Cold Box Experiments of General
Electric in 1940s it was an accident
DOES IT WORK?
Bottom Line If its cold enough, if the cloud has
water vapor in it, and if you introduce a
contaminant you can make it precipitate we have
known this for 50 years and its shown to 5th
graders regularly
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The oldest continuous program in the U.S. Bishop
Creek Program - California
Dry ice seeding began on February 1948 over the
96 square mile watershed of this hydro electric
power system in the eastern Sierra near Bishop,
CA. Thom Henderson rode in the nose of this P-38
WWII fighter and dispensed dry ice.
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Now about the bills and letsgive credit where
its due
Josh McClintock, McClintock Associates -
Oklahoma Arlen Huggins, DRI Nevada Darin
Langerud, Atmospheric Resources Board North
Dakota
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Reviving the WDMP Program states perspective

• USBR Weather Damage Modification Program
  (Calendar years 2002-06)
• (FFY 2002-03 states competitive RFP Process)
  1.3 total over years
• CO - 100K numerical weather model of seeding
  effects for guiding generator placement
• NV - 200K Trace chemistry analyses, hydrologic
  modeling, SLW sensing, MM5 plume dispersion
  modeling
• TX, OK 700K Hygroscopic and silver iodide
  seeding research, some tracer gas tracking, CCN
  sampling (led to air pollution research)
• UT - 200K - Randomized experiment with liquid
  propane showed 25 seeded over non seeded cases
  extrapolated over winter was 8 increase
  (measured using high res. precipitation gages)
• ND - 100K - CCN sampling modeling feasibility
  hygroscopic seeding, radar study, long term gage
  record study
• Previously its was the NOAA AMP Program ran
  (1979-1993)

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History of Hutchison Weather Mod Bill

• Large Texas program built local capacity (tell
  story)
• 109th Congress S 517 and HR 2995
• Hearing on S. 517 Nov. 2005 in post Katrina era.
  Asked if could research hurricanes original
  intent not discussed (Garthstang, DeFelice,
  Golden)
• Bill came out of committee with new advisory
  committee to original 11 person board funding
  was stripped
• Marburger letter from OSTP Dec. 2005 asked not
  support due to international treaty issues etc.
• No further action in 2006 (they didnt like it
  and we didnt like it)
• Feb 2007 20 Meetings in D.C. in three days
• NV, ND, TX, CO, KS, Congressional Western Caucus,
  Western Senate Coalition, House Science Committee
  Staff
• Scott Rayder Chief of Staff NOAA (my impression
  of meeting)
• WSWC influential appreciated (Duane Smith 7
  meetings)
• Hutchison introduced S.1807 in July 2007
• Udall bill introduced late last week before recess

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S. 1807 details

• 10M / 10 years
• Modification word taken out replaced with weather
  mitigation
• Droughts 6B Hail 2B problem/ year
• Colorado River Agreements/analysis
• Climate Change WDMP model
• Directed by NSF
• Powers of Board Implementation Plan
• Board Natl. Aerounatics Space, ASCE, NAS,
  NCAR, Dept. of Agr., University, 2 states with
  programs
• Define Types of Research includes severe storms
• Grants to eligible entities modeled after AMP
  WDMP
• Up to 750K for state to state collaborations
• Section for WSWC compliance with all laws and
  regulations including interstate agreements not
  in original bill but not a problem they will
  honor this request from WSWC (Jamie Moore) page
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• Report to Congress

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Mark Udall Bill (CO)

• got NAIWMC changes to Hutchison Bill that we
  wanted in Udalls bill late last Tuesday
• Introduced late last week
• No time to review NAIWMC input
• No number yet but in a week or two
• Biggest difference is housed in NOAA interest
  from Boulder, CO (Sandy McDonald Joe Golden)
• conference will hash out which agency
• Same bill from last year as place maker
• Did change weather modification to weather
  mitigation
• Udall wants section requiring OSTP issue the
  report promised in 2005 not in bill yet but
  NAIWMC provided language
• NAIWMC working with Wendy Adams in August to
  provide states input, WSWC input welcomed
• NAIWMC wants USBR on board to replace AMS
  membership, at least weather damage mitigation

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Request of WSWC?

• Jamie Moore and Wendy Adams appreciate press,
  these bills will go nowhere without significant
  support from Western States Senate and House
  Members (co-sponsors).
• NV, CA, WY, TX, KS, ND, CO, UT, OK, ID all have
  ops and research programs that will benefit.
• No timeline yet
• Letters of support from agencies as well from
  individuals.
• Names dropped so far have been John Thune from
  SD, Senator Inhoff from OK, on house side she
  didnt call out members but will need our help
  particularly all of those states house
  delegations
• Support via emails or fax no snail mail
• Josh McClintock will generate form letter and
  send to NAIWMC and WSWC

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Addressing OSTP (Marburger letter)

• Udall Bills request OSTP report
• NAIWMC formulating response
• 30-50 years of ops in the states with liability,
  legal, permit limits set at state level (SNOTEL
  map)
• Colorado River Agreements (UT-CO-WY)
• States, Universities, non profits eligible
  entities and confined to the states
• Limits to types of research
• New funding doesnt redirect NOAA funding
• Katrina forecasts (400M NOAA investment in
  modernizing weather products)
• Previously AMP WDMP without these issues
• Stop and ask for WSWC input

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WM Grants Modeling Success in UtahBottom line
when state money is there the local money is
there for 32 years, wont pay for more than 50
and its stabilized at about 150K state and 225K
local
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Nevada
For more information about Nevadas programs
visit their website at http//cloudseeding.dri.edu
/
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How much more proof do we need?
DRI also uses different tracer elements in
airplane seeding flares and ground base
generators to determine targeting from both
sources
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Colorado River 7 Basin StatesMarks a new era of
cooperation but its balancing act (Randy, Rod,
and Ted, Jeanine, Tony, Craig, Don Ostler, even
Hal and the list goes on)Develop exhibits for
winter 2007-08 Summer 2007 draft 5-year plan,
do we have a vision? Tom Ryan, MWDSC meet with
local water boards and districts winter letter
of interest can be place markers for design
studies and new winter programs (support local
driven needs)
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Recap of Colo River 06-07

• March 17, 2007 Agreement Executed lost the whole
  winter negotiating language
• UT can backfill based on agreements, WY has to
  resign master agreement each year, CO doesnt
  have to resign every year but has no other
  funding to backfill for early starts
• Southwestern WCD got 32.5K for three permits
• Colorado Springs Utilities got 16.5K but banked
  it
• Grand Mesa got 8K for a total of 57K
• Base Agreement has following provisions
• System water, non assignable and non accountable
• Subject to state water laws and law of the
  river

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Colorado River Priorities 07-08

• 300K BUDGET
• 3 Colorado Evaluation proposals
• Air pollution modeling by CSU for 73K
• Physical Measurements at Winter Park for 100K
• Plume Dispersion Modeling at Winter Park for 53K
• Streamflow analysis Vail/Beaver Creek (Dr. Bernie
  Silverman)???
• Icing rate sensor proposal from Utah ????
• AZ, CA, NV request for 150K match 150K CWCB
• WY, UT, CO share exhibits August
• Conference call with Ad Hoc Committee August 13
• New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission wants to
  spend 40K with similar state-to-state agreement
  to fund existing program and move generators into
  Navajo drainages
• Talked to San Juan Commission (possible future)

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Colorado River (Continued)

• Find a balance of funding at local, state, and
  out of state level
• Better seeding means what?
• Newer decision making equipment
• Seed when its right not when its cloudy
• New Permits and Partners for programs
• Evaluations of effectiveness
• CWCB has 150K through CF Bill, 5K went to
  collect hail/rain data for Hail Cannons
• 8 permits (Denver Water, Colorado Springs, West
  San Juans, East San Juans, Telluride, Grand Mesa,
  Gunnison, Upper Gunnison 8/145K 18,125/permit

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WET Physical Measurements at Winter Park

• 100K proposal for three months of study has 120
  years of experience retired USBR scientists
• NCAR Ice Nucleus counter documents how often and
  in what quantity seeding material in the target
  area
• Super Cooled Liquid Water Measurements
• Air Temperature measurements
• THE QUESTION IS DOES A TYPICAL COLORADO PROGRAM
  WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEY GENERATORS WORK
• Sort of Yes or No Question

Ice Nucleus Counter
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DRI Atmospheric Modeling at Winter Park

• 53K proposal for four test cases
• Compliments the WET Study to model transport and
  diffusion of seeding material and use MM5
  predictions to assess how often and when suitable
  conditions are over the target area
• WILL OFFER REASONS WHY OR WHY NOT?

Figure 3. Three dimensional perspective view of
LAP simulated seeding plumes from four ground
generator sites in the Walker River Basin of
California and Nevada. Storm simulation is for 2
February 2004 at 1600 GMT. View is from the
southwest with Sierra Nevada crest in the
foreground.
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Figure 5. Vertical cross-sections constructed
from MM5 output at 1800 GMT (top) and 2000 GMT
(bottom) on 2 February 2004. Cross-section
location is across the Sierra Nevada along the
line shown in Fig. 4. Red lines are potential
temperature contours, arrows are wind vectors in
the vertical plane, and color shading represents
cloud water mixing ratio according to the scale
at the right. Sierra Nevada crest is at 30 km on
the x-axis.
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Do simple things and move the chains

• Desert Research Institute of Reno, NV will bring
  the first remote generator to Colorado (25 years
  in Nevada none in UT CO)
• Solutions for Grand Mesa updated to be sodium
  iodide (NaI) silver iodide (AgI) and
  para-dichlorobenzene (C6H4Cl2) commonly sold as
  moth balls
• Best scientist in field Arlen Huggins helping
  Grand Mesa Program (18K)
• private land on the Grand Mesa and NWS to host a
  icing sensor at the Radar
• upgrades to WY, UT, CO through Seven Basin States
  Process made it possible my request is for 175K
  due Aug 31

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Announcements

• Discovery Channel Super Storm about hurricane
  research (aired Sunday on this month)
• Recent expired PGE USFS permit led to silver
  iodide analysis low levels in everything (fish,
  water, soil, etc.) high seeding rates for
  maritime clouds
• September NAIWMC meeting in Salt Lake City
• 17th AMS Planned and Inadvertent Weather
  Modification Conference is coming to
  Denver/Boulder June 2008 (Your Climate Change is
  in my cloud seeding )
• WM Documentary 4th Row films airs on PBS in 2008
  is using actual cloud seeders researchers

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NAIWMC Winter Seeding Paper (Huggins)

• Summarizes decades and millions in research
  (where are we now)
• Well defined conceptual model
• Documented chain of events
• SLW present in nearly every winter storm but
  varies and not practical to pinpoint only SLW
  periods
• SLW over windward slope of mountains and upwind
  of the physical barrier and dissipates downwind
  of mountain crest.
• Shown transport and diffusion of material over
  target area
• Microphysical effects (formation, growth and
  fallout of ice crystals)
• Evidence of increases (most recent Utah 2005) 20
  more over small target area
• New evaluation techniques
• Trace Chemistry analyses shows reaching target
  area 8 increases

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NAIWMC Winter Seeding Paper (Huggins)

• Conclusions
• well designed and properly conducted cloud
  seeding programs will produce demonstrable
  results
• Propane works at warmer temps explore this more
• Evaluate new and existing programs
• Randomized experiments
• statistical techniques backed up by observations
• Use high resolution models to predict TD
• Use cloud models to predict microphysical and
  precipitation seeding effects
• Refine techniques
• Study impact of air pollution on winter
• clouds and precipitation

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My vision, not that anyone asked

• Colorado River could develop sustainable funding
• electronic warehouse of history
• Icing rate sensors to guide operations
• sustainable affordable verifiable programs please
• Design studies can sit on the shelf until folks
  are ready
• Partnerships, partnerships, partnerships
• Mountain valleys vs. NEPA? Wyoming USFS letter
  reaffirms can target wilderness but no equipment
  in wilderness, USFS regs against permanent
  equipment but all over the west, depends on the
  office
• Copy Utahs funding match, technology transfer
  from Nevada, build local capacity like in Texas,
  federal funds for refine and evaluate
• no federal action! Seeding ops and regs at state
  and local level federal role is assisting states
  in developing technology through evaluation
  assistance
• April 2009 end Chair-NAIWMC having built Dr.
  Evils secret volcano lair and then lay low, if I
  make it that far

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Bored Yet? How about a little humor? three Black
Crows Awards
Joe Busto, CWCB 2004
Tom Ryan, MWDSC 2007
Steve Hunter, USBR 2006
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Joe Busto CWCB 1313 Sherman Street, Room
721 Denver, CO 80203 (303) 866 4807 email
joe.busto_at_state.co.us.
Thank you WSWC from the 9 NAIWMC states and those
at the local level we are working on behalf of!
Mr. Coyle Busto requests that we not waiver as
its his world on loan to us for now
WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH BILLDISCUSSION
PLEASE!