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Instrumental Variables IV

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1. ????????? / ??????????. ???? ????? ???. Instrumental Variables (IV) 2. ?? ?? ??? (?? '????' ???) ??????? ??? ?- X?? ???? ??????? ???????, ??? ?????? ? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Instrumental Variables IV


1
????????? / ?????????????? ????? ???
Instrumental Variables (IV)
2
????????? - ??????? ??????
?? ?? ??? (?? "????" ???) ??????? ??? ?- X??
???? ??????? ???????, ??? ?????? ? - OLS ?? ?????
?????? ??????.
3
??? ??? ?-X ???? ??????? ???????
  • ?????? ????????
  • ????? ??????
  • ??????? ??????????
  • ?? ???? ???, ???? ????? ???? ??????
  • ????? ?????, ???? ?"?????? ?????" ?-X

4
Errors in Variables "?????? ?????"
x ??? ?????? ??????, ?? ??? ????? ????, ??????
?????? ?? x . ??????, x "?????" (?? ???
?????), ?? x ???? ????? ???????, ??????? ???,
y.
5
?????? ????? ????? ?????
6
?????? ????? ????? ????? - ????
7
????? - ????
  • ?????, ????? ???? ?????? ????, ????? ??? ?- su2
    ???? ???? ???? ? sx2 ????? ????? ????? ????
    ????.
  • ?? ??? ????? ????? ??????? ????? ??????
    ???????? ?? u. ????? ???
  • bias (coefficient of omitted on included 1)
    times (coefficient of omitted -beta) -beta
  • ???? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ???? ???????????
    ?????, ???? ?? su2 ??? ??? ???? ???.

8
???? ?- IV ????? ????? ?? "?????? ?????"
y ????? x - ????? ??????, ??? ???? ?? ??????
????? (?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????) x ????? ??????
???? ????? ????? z, ?????? ?? x ?? ?? ?? u
(??? ?? e ). ????? ?- z ???? ????? ?????? ?"?
????.
9
???? IV
10
IV ???? ?????
??? ??,
??? bols ?? ????,
11
????? ????? IV
???? ?????? ?? ????? ??? Z (???? ?- Z?? ?????
?- X??), ?? ?-
???? ?? ????? IV ?????? ??? Z,
12
????? IV ????
??? ????? ??? ? X?? ? Z ?? ??? ????, ???? ???, ??
????? ???? ???? (??? ???? ?- (ZX!
13
????? ?????? ??????????? ?? ????? IV
??? ? X ? Z ??????? ??? ????, ?????? ??"? ?????
???? ????. ?????? ?? ????? ????? ???, ????
??????? ?? ??????!
14
Endogeneity Simultaneity Bias
????? ??????? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ???
???????? ?? ???? ????? ?? "?????" ?? ???? ???,
??? ???? ????? (???? ?????? 6). ????? ??????
?-IO, ?????? ????? ??????? ???????, ???? PCs ??
????????. ????
si ??? ??? ?? ?- brand ?- i ???? ??????? ??????
x , ?????? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ? ei
?????, PCs ???? ????? ???? ????? ???? ????
????? ????), ??? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?? ??
?????
15
???? ??? ????? ?? ????
S
P
P
??? ?? ???? ??? ??? P ? e) ????? ?? ?????? ???
????), ??? ????? ????? ?????? ????? ? a (????
?? ???? ????? ?????!).
16
????? IVs ????? ??
???? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ?? ??
?????? ??? ???? (??? ??????? ??????). ???? ?????
?-PC ????? ???? ???????
F frontier (latest technology) B brand
(e.g. IBM, HP, Compaq) N no (e.g. NB no
brand clone)
17
IVs ??????? ?? ????, ?? ?? ??????? ?? ?????
  • ???? ??????? ?? ????? ??????, ??? ????? ???????
    ?????? ???? ????? ???? (?? ???? ??????).
  • ??"? ???? ? - Xs ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????
    ?? ??????? ????, ?? ????? ????.
  • ??? ????? ??????? ?? ?? ????? ???? ?? ????? ???,
    ?? ????? ????.
  • ??"? ???? ? - Xs ?? ?????? ??? ??????? ??????
    ?? ????? ?????? ????, ?? ????? ????.

18
IV ?????? ?? ???? - ????
?????? ????? ????? ????? IV ?????? ??????, ????
??? ?????! ?? ????? panel, ?? ???? ???????
(entry) ???? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ????? (???????
??????), ??? ?? ???? ?? X?? ????????.
19
??????? ??????????
  • ????? ?? ??????? ????????
  • ?????? ????????? ?????????
  • ?????? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????????
    Structural equations vs. reduced form

??????? ????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????
20
????? ????????
21
?????????? ????? ??????
  • ???? ????? ?? P ??? ??????? ?? ed ??? es, ??? ??
    ?? ?????? ?? ??? ???????? ????? ???? ???? ??????
    ????? ??? ??????.
  • ?? ???? ?????? (????? ??????) .
  • ??? ????? ?? ????? ???? IV ?????? ?? (ILS, TSLS)
  • ?? exactly identified, ??? ILS ??? ? IV. ?????
    ???? ????? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????
    ????? ????????.

22
????? ????? - ????
  • ????? ????? ?- TSLS
  • ??? ???? ?????? ?? ?? ????? ???? (????
    X?? ??????? ?????)
  • ?? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????

Limited Information ?? ?????? ????. Full
Information ???? ??? 3SLS - ????? ????? - ????
????? ??? ????????? ?? over identified.
23
Hausman Test ???? ??????????? (???? ???? Wu)
???? ??? ???? ?? ????? ?????
?? ?????? ?? ???? ????? (?? ?????), ?? ????
?????? ?????? ????? ???????? ???? p (?? ????
???? q)
24
???? Hausman - ????
?? ??? ??????????, ??? ??? "??? ???", ??
????? ?? ??????, ??? ?? ???? ?????
??????????? ?????,
?????? (????? ???? ????? ??????????),
25
???? ?????
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