PostUSSR land cover change in Eastern Europe - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PostUSSR land cover change in Eastern Europe
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Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe. socioeconomic forcings, effects on ... Saiga antelope. Brown Bear. Umbrella species. for biodiversity ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: PostUSSR land cover change in Eastern Europe
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Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe
socioeconomic forcings, effects on biodiversity
and future scenarios
Volker Radeloff University of Wisconsin-Madison
Funded by A
NEESPI Project
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Background
- Rapid land cover change in Eastern European since
the breakdown of the USSR - Widespread agricultural abandonment followed by
conversion to shrublands and forest
Agricultural area change from 1991 to 1997 USDA
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Background
- Socio-economic trends differ markedly among
neighboring countries with similar ecological
conditions
Change in nighttime lights 1993-2000.
Yellow/red more lights, blue fewer lights,
NOAA-NESDIS
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Background
- A natural experiment in Eastern Europe allows
to test hypotheses on the relative importance of
environmental versus socioeconomic factors as
controls and forcings of land cover and land
cover change and thereby on biodiversity
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Objectives
- Monitor land cover and land use change (LCLUC) in
Eastern Europe - Examine socioeconomic and political changes as
forcing functions for LCLUC - Examine effects of LCLUC on biodiversity
- Simulate future LCLUC scenarios and examine
potential biodiversity effects
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Objectives
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Approach
- Current land cover from MODIS data
- Separating plowed from fallow fields with
spectral mixtureanalysis of MODISreflectance
data
Landcover in the study area
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Approach
- Land cover change analysis with Landsat TM/ETM
data - 1985 to 2002 data
Landsat sample scenes
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Landsat TM1985-88
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Landsat TM/ETM2000
Classificationbased on TM ETM data from 2000
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Poland
state farms (until 1990)
Slovakia
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Objectives
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Approach
- Regression analysis to identify forcing and
controls of LCLUC - Socioeconomic variables
- GDP, land ownership, urban markets, employment,
population, housing, and households, agricultural
statistics, country - Environmental variables
- Climate, topography, soils
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Approach
- Hypothesis Agricultural abandonment is
controlled at broad scales by national economic
and political conditions, and by climate
patterns,and at fine scales by distance to urban
markets, distance to major roads, topography, and
soil quality
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Objectives
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Approach
- Wildlife habitat analysis for three species of
conservation concern - European Bison
- Saiga antelope
- Brown Bear
- Umbrella speciesfor biodiversity
Radio-collared bison in the Slovak Carpathians,
Dec. 2004
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Approach
- Radio-collar locationsas input for
resource-selection functions - Habitat variables include land
cover,fragmentation indices, and settlements
Saiga with satellite radio-collar
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Approach
- Radio-collar locationsas input for
resource-selection functions - Habitat variables include land
cover,fragmentation indices, and settlements
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Approach
- Bear data is collected from local hunting
departments viaan ArcGIS server - This allows onlinedigitizing of bearactivity
and easydata transfer
Arc/GIS server for bear mapping
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Objectives
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Timeline
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Collaborators
- NGOs
- WWF
- Large Herbivore Foundation
- Scientists
- L. Balciauskas, Vilnius University, Lithuania
- L. Baskin, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow
- P. Hostert, and T. Kümmerle, Humboldt University
- A. Lushchekina, Russian MAB Program, Moscow
- K. Perzanowski, Polish Academy of Sciences
- W. Schröder, Technical University, Munich
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Questions?
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