What is Climate Change?

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What is Climate Change?

• A combined long term effect of rising global
  temperature leading to changes in air and oceanic
  circulations and consequently rainfall patterns
  over time and space
• Global mean temperature rise is due to
  concentration of CO2, methane, N2O and other
  gases, often called green house gases, caused
  mainly by fossil fuel use, deforestation and to
  an extent due to wet paddy cultivation

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Global Worming and Climate Change Ainun Nishat,
Ph. D Senior Advisor, Climate change IUCN The
International Union for Conservation of
Nature Email nishat_at_iucnbd.org
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Is Climate Change real ..?

• Climate change has risen to the top of
  international policy agenda. G-8 has agreed to
  reduce green house emission by 50 by 2050. Is it
  enough?
• IPCC TAR 2001 The Earths Climate system has
  demonstrably changed on both global and regional
  scales since the pre-industrial era. The
  IPCC-FAR(2007), concludes that global warming is
  unequivocally the result of human activities.
• CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before
  industrial revolution to about 380 ppm. May reach
  800 ppm by end of this century. Global average
  temperature is already up by 0.8C.
• Stern Review ( 2007) poorest countries and
  people will suffer earliest and most.
• Scientific consensus is clear now we need to
  urgently focus on what to do about it. Attempts
  are being made to fix the ceiling at 500ppm and
  at 2.0c.
• Is it likely to happen?
• Climate change and climate variability are now
  real and a stable situation is not likely to be
  achieved soon.

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I. Major Climate Change concerns
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Variations of the Earths Surface Temperature
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Role of Human Systems on Global Warming
Blue Band - natural Red band Man made
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Global WarmingSea Level RiseSnow
CoverSPM (IPCC, 2007)
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Comparison of Yearly Mean Temperature
Global
Northern Hemisphere
Bangladesh
Dhaka
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Temperature Trend in Maijdee Court

• The regression equation shows that annual average
  temperature has an increasing tendency and has
  increased by 0.86ºC from 1952 to 2001

Source Study report on Extreme Hydrological
events
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Projected impacts of climate change
Global temperature change (relative to
pre-industrial)
1C
2C
5C
4C
3C
0C








Food
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many developed regions
Possible rising yields in some high latitude
regions
Water
Significant fall in water availability e.g.
Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers disappear melt-water
supplies threatened in several areas
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme Weather Events
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires,
droughts, flooding, heat waves
Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Source stern review
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Flood Inundation Depth Map Projection Year
2015 Sea Level Rise 10 cm
Flood Inundation Depth Map Projection Year
2030 Sea Level Rise 14 cm
Flood Inundation Depth Map Projection Year
2050 Sea Level Rise 32 cm
Flood Inundation Depth Map Projection Year
2100 Sea Level Rise 88 cm
Flood Inundation Depth Map Existing Condition
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Vulnerabilities
Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context Physical Vulnerability Context  
Extreme Temperature Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Drought Flood Flood Cyclone and Storm Surges Erosion Sectoral Vulnerability Context
Extreme Temperature Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Drought River Flood Flash Flood Cyclone and Storm Surges Erosion Sectoral Vulnerability Context
Extreme Temperature Coastal Inundation Salinity Intrusion Drought River Flood Flash Flood Cyclone and Storm Surges Erosion Sectoral Vulnerability Context
- Crop Agriculture
- Fisheries
- Livestock
 - - Infrastructure
- - Industries
- Biodiversity
- - Health
- - - - Human Settlement
- - - Energy
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Comments of Rural Communities (IUCN 2003)

• Excessive rainfall at times, untimely and
  irregular heavy rain,
• Increase in tidal bores, increase in number of
  cyclonic conditions, variation in tidal flow
• Increase in frequency of flash flood,
• Temperature variation, change of seasonal cycle,
  cloudy and cold winter,
• increase in droughts and dry spells,
• Storms and hailstorms,,
• Increased surface temperature,
• Intensity of mist/fog increased in the winter.

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Options for Adaptation

• FLOOD MANAGEMENT
• Flood management
• Dams and reservoirs
• flood management infrastructure
• dykes/embankment/ polder/ levee/bund
• sluices,
• pump stations,
• flood Evacuation shelters
• Evacuation
• Shelter management
• Flood forecasting system
• Lead time,
• Language
• Dissemination
• Drought Management
• Barrages
• Irrigation facilities, pump stations, tube wells.

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Options for Adaptation

• Storm surge and Cyclone/Typhoon/ Hurricane
• Coastal dykes/embankment/ polder/levee
• Coastal aforestation
• Cyclone Shelters
• Evacuation
• Shelter management
• Cyclone forecasts and Warning
• Lead time,
• Language
• Dissemination
• Erosion control measures
• River training
• Capacity enhancement for Disaster Management
• Capacity of local level institutions
• GO-NGO relationship

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Where are our concerns

• North
• Compromise with life style
• Snow melting dry ski-slopes
• Floods
• Impact on ecosystem
• Hurricanes and typhoons
• Sea level rise
• Health issues
• Malaria
• Heat waves
• Capacity to cope with disasters
• Reduction of green house gas emission level

• South
• Food and livelihood security
• Urban drainage problems
• Floods and cyclone forecasting and warning
  dissemination
• Improvements in IWRM
• including resolution of trans-boundary waters.
• Salinity increase sea level rise
• River and coastal erosion
• Disaster management
• Understanding impact on ecosystem
• Question of future survival

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II. Progress up to Bali
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Global Responses

• The international political response to climate
  change began with adoption of the UN Framework
  Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in 1992.
• Calls for all signatories including developing
  countries
• to develop their inventories of GHG emission
• formulate and implement national and regional
  programs related to mitigation and adaptation
• Promote and cooperate in development,
  application, diffusion, including transfer of
  technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction
• Promote sinks of Green House Gases
• Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate
  change
• Promote and cooperate in increasing the
  scientific understanding and in education
  training and awareness raising.
• These initiatives should be reflected in National
  Communications. Annex-1 countries have prepared
  4th Communication, developing countries have
  submitted 1st Communication and preparing 2nd
  Communication.

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Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC

• Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a
  level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climatic system.
• Such a level should be achieved within a time
  frame sufficient
• To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
  change.
• To ensure that food production is not threatened,
  and
• To enable economic development to proceed in a
  sustainable manner.

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Global Response (cont...)

• Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol
  (KP) with the unprecedented, legally enforced
  ambition of limiting and reducing the greenhouse
  gas emissions.
• Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the
  GHG emission, individually or jointly, by at
  least by 5below 1990 levels in the first
  commitment period of 2008 to 2012.
• Countries are to make demonstrable progress in
  achieving their commitments by 2005. Is it
  happening? --- No.
• Negotiation for post 2012 period has been
  initiated through Bali Action Plan.
• Heads of Govt. met in New York on 24th September
  2007 Ministers and senior officials met on
  11-12th February 2008.

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III. Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)
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Bali action Plan

• 13th COP held in Bali launched a comprehensive
  process to enable the full, effective and
  sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through
  long-term action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in
  order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a
  decision at COP-15.
• The process will produce
• A shared vision for long-term cooperative action,
• Set long term global goal for emission
  reductions,
• To achieve ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and
• Uphold the principles of common but
  differentiated responsibilities and respective
  capabilities, and
• Take into account social and economic conditions
  and other relevant factors.
• The process will address
• Enhanced national/international action on
  Mitigation
• Enhanced action on Adaptation,
• Enhanced action on Technology development and
  transfer to support action on Mitigation and
  Adaptation,
• Enhanced action on provision of Financial
  Resources and investment to support action on
  Mitigation and adaptation and technology
  cooperation.

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Enhanced action on Mitigation

• By all developed countries
• Quantified emission limitation and reduction
  objectives
• Nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or
  actions Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable.
• By all developing countries
• Nationally appropriate mitigation actions,
• Supported and enabled by technology, finance and
  capacity-building, in the context of sustainable
  development Measurable, Reportable, and
  Verifiable.
• Positive incentives on REDD

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Enhanced action on Adaptation

• International cooperation to support urgent
  implementation of Adaptation actions through
• Assessment of Vulnerability
• Prioritization of actions
• Financial needs assessment
• Development of risk reduction and disaster
  management strategies
• Integration of climate considerations into
  sectoral and national planning
• Support programme for capacity building in
  formulating programmes and projects to address
  the adaptation needs.
• Financial mechanism to support the implementation
  of activities.
• Development of new and innovative support
  mechanisms such as insurance etc.

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Enhanced action on Technology transfer

• Technology development and transfer to support
  action on Mitigation and Adaptation by
• Scaling up of the development and transfer of
  technology to developing countries through
  effective mechanisms and enhanced means for
  removal of obstacles to, and provision of
  financial and other incentives.
• Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of
  affordable environmentally sound technologies,
• Cooperation in research and development of
  current, new and innovative technology.

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Enhanced action on Finance

• Positive incentives for emission reduction
  activities of developing countrys.
• Financing for implementation of adaptation
  actions.
• Mobilization of public- and Private-sector
  funding and investment, including facilitation of
  carbon-friendly investment choices
• Improved access to adequate, predictable and
  sustainable financial resources including
  concessional funding.

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IV. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen
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Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen

• Road Map for long-term action, now, up to and
  beyond 2012 as international response to Climate
  Change has been agreed upon.
• Mitigation is no longer a task for only Annex-1
  or developed countries.
• Developing as well as LDCs are also obligated to
  push for GHG reduction. China, India, Indonesia
  etc. are also major polluters.
• Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term
  Cooperative Action has been set up. AWG will
  complete its work in 2009 and present their
  outcome in COP 15 in Copenhagen.
• First session of the AWG was held in Bangkok in
  March 2008. 3 more sessions in 2008. ( June,
  September and December). At least 4 sessions in
  2009.
• Bangladesh submitted Bangladeshs position on the
  Bali Action Plan in February 2008.

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V. What we are doing
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Some negotiation issues at global level

• A strong compliance regime is required. Efforts
  should be made to ensure that global mean
  temperature will not increase beyond 2 ºc. ( some
  countries are trying to make a realistic estimate
  of 3 ºc.
• A deep emission cut is needed. IPCC suggested
  that developed counties need to reduce their
  emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40 by 2020,
  for stabilization at 450-550 ppm. Peaking date is
  very important.
• Larger alliance among developing countries on
  post Kyoto situation.
• Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs
  and its disbursement mechanism.
• Binding adaptation funds
• Technology transfer at an affordable price

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Bangladeshs Climate Change Strategy

• Basic premises
• Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while
  Adaptation Plan has to be based on national
  context
• Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building
  blocks adaptation, mitigation, technology
  transfer and adequate financial flows
• Security of food, water, energy and livelihood
  must be inviolate for any climate change strategy
  and action .
• Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly
  by Annex 1 countries
• polluter pays principle
• financial flows to be compensatory grants

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Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan

• Released on 10th September in London 2008
  revised and updated in July 2009 waiting for
  approval
• 6 Thematic Areas
• Food Security, Social Protection and Health (9)
• Comprehensive Disaster management (4)
• Infrastructure (7)
• Research and Knowledge Management (5)
• Mitigation and Low Carbon Development (7)
• Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening
  (5)
• 37 programmes 4 new programme added
• BCCSAP is a living document updating will be
  necessary at intervals based on better
  understanding of issues as they emerge
• Key issues in taking BCCSAP forward are
  financing, institutional arrangement and
  coordination, coordination with donors, etc
• Food Security water security livelihood
  security energy security and health security be
  ensured
• Progress towards sustainable development and
  achievements in attaining MDGs are not hampered.

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Bangladeshs Climate Change Strategy

• Basic premises
• Synergy with a globally negotiated strategy while
  Adaptation Plan (NAPA) as well as Mitigation Plan
  (NAMA) have to be based in national context
• Accepts Bali Action Plan and its 4 building
  blocks adaptation, mitigation, technology
  transfer and adequate financial flows
• Security of food, water, energy and livelihood
  must be inviolate for any climate change strategy
  and action .
• Adaptation need arises due to GHG emission mainly
  by Annex-1 countries
• polluter pays principle
• financial flows to be compensatory grants ( Role
  of the World Bank and GEF is being debated).

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Theme 1 Food Security, Social Protection and
Health

• P1. Institutional capacity for research towards
  climate resilient cultivars and their
  dissemination
• P2. Development of climate resilient cropping
  systems
• P3. Adaptation against drought
• P4. Adaptation in fisheries sector
• P5. Adaptation in livestock sector
• P6. Adaptation in health sector
• P7. Water and sanitation programme in climate
  vulnerable areas
• P8. Livelihood protection in ecologically fragile
  areas
• P9. Livelihood protection of vulnerable
  socio-economic groups (including women)

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On Road to Copenhagen ..

• Intense negotiations going on drafts on website.
• Must understand group dynamics.
• G77 and China
• EU
• USA
• Umbrella Group
• Environmental Integrity Group
• AOSIS
• LDC
• Arab league
• Africa Group

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USAs position...

• Declared their position a few weeks back.
• Recognizes the magnitude and seriousness of what
  science demands.
• Commits to reach a strong international
  agreement in Copenhagen based on robust targets
  and ambitious actions that will be embodied in US
  domestic law and on the premise that the
  agreement will reflect the important national
  actions of all countries with significant
  emissions (countries with greater
  responsibility/capability) ( LDCs left out)
• Proposes to identify desirable global indicators.
• Parties to implement nationally appropriate
  Mitigation Action Plans as shown in Appendix -1
  (in place of Annex-1). Proposes up to 2020 as
  next commitment period.
• Supports REDD related activities.
• Proposes to develop robust Adaptation
  framework.
• Recognizes the need for a dramatic increase in
  flow of resources for both adaptation and
  Mitigation.

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• THANK YOU