Belarus: Population and Demographics

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BelarusPopulation and Demographics

• Berney Richert
• May 12, 2008
• Demography of Russia/FSU

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Questions

• Where is Belarus?
• What are the population trends?
• Birth, death, migration
• Birth fertility, family structure
• Death death rates, aging, life expectancy,
  health
• Migration
• Population projections
• Comparison with Russia

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Belarus map Europe
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Belarus map with population
From CIA World Factbook
9.7 million people (2008 est.)
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Population Trends
Based on data from Belarusian Ministry of
Statistics and Analysis
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FSU percent growth, 1999
From Lecture 3
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Selected FSU country population growth
Total population (1000s)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Year
From Lecture 3
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Natural Growth
1000s
Total population
Number born Number died Natural growth
From Shakhotska (2007)
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Birth, death, migration
Population change is the result of birth, death,
and (net) migration
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Crude Birth Rate
Based on UN Statistics Division data
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Population Pyramid (2008)
From Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and
Analysis
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Age-Specific Fertility Rates
Births per 1,000
Age (years)
From Shakhotska (2007)
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Total Fertility Rate
Children
Total fertility rate (overall) Total fertility
rate (urban) Total fertility rate (rural)
From Shakhotska (2007)
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TFR Russia
From Lecture 3
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Cohort Total Fertility Rate
Cohort birth year
Average number of children born to a woman in the
given cohort
From Shakhotska (2007)
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Family Structure

• First children make up 55-60 of all births
  (Subotka)
• Unregistered marriages producing
• more children 8.5 of all births in
• 1990, 18.6 in 2000, 24.1 in 2005,
• 22.7 in 2006.

First child
Second child
Third child (or higher)
From Shakhotska (2007)
From Shakhotska (2007)
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Family planning

• Abortion incidence decreasing
• 1995 193,300 abortions for 101,100 births (66
  of all pregnancies)
• 2003 80,200 abortions for 88,500 births (48 of
  all pregnancies)
• Modern contraceptive methods 27.8 of women in
  1990, 40 in 2006

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Crude Death Rate (deaths per 1,000)
Based on UN Statistics Division data
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CDR Russia
From Lecture 8
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Population Pyramid (2008)
From Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and
Analysis
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The Belarusian Cross
The Russian Cross
From Lecture 3
Based on UN Statistics Division data
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Aging
Based on UN Statistics Division data
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Trends in Life Expectancy
Years
Men and women
Men
Women
From Shakhotska 2006
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Health and Lifestyle

• Alcoholism Effect of Gorbachevs Campaign

1000s
Odin iz vyzovov
Number of deaths
Hypothetical number of deaths
From Shakhotska 2006
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Health and Lifestyle

• Nutrition city residents eat twice as much
  fruit, half as many starchy grains (Shohotska
  2006)
• Smoking 53.3 of men and 6.3 of women smoke
  (2006), especially young and middle-aged
  (Shohotska 2006)
• Obesity 6 of men, 19 of women obese (2006)
  (Shohotska 2006)

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FSU migration flows
From Lecture 11
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Ethnically motivated migration
Based on data from Belarusian Ministry of
Statistics and Analysis
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Population Projections
Based on World Population Prospects data
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How Does Belarus Compare With Russia?

• Higher fertility
• Longer life expectancy
• Lower crude death rate
• More stable economic and political system
• Problems still fundamentally similar to Russias

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Sources

• Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis.
  Ethnicity data available at http//belstat.gov.by/
  homep/en/census/p5.php. Population figures and
  pyramid available at http//belstat.gov.by/homep/e
  n/indicators/population.php
• CIA World Factbook. Belarus. 2008. Available
  at https//www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-wo
  rld-factbook/print/bo.html
• Novosti.dn.ua. ??? ??????????? ??? ????????????
  ?????????? ?? ?????? ?????????. ????.
  Available at http//novosti.dn.ua/details/23460/
• Shakhotska, Lyudmila. ???????? ??????????? ???
  ??????? ?? ??????? ??????????????? ????????????
  ?????????? ????????. ??????? ??????????, ? 10
  (2007). ?vailable at http//demoscope.ru/weekly/2
  008/0327/analit02.php
• Shakhotska, Lyudmila. ?????????? ??? ???? ??
  ??????? ??????????????? ???????????? ??????????
  ????????. ??????? ??????????, ? 8 (2006).
  Available at http//demoscope.ru/weekly/2008/0327
  /analit01.php
• Subotka, Tomas. Re-Emerging Diversity Rapid
  Fertility Changes in Central and Eastern Europe
  after the Collapse of the Communist Regimes.
  Population, vol. 58, no. 4/5 (2003), 451-485.
  Available at http//www.jstor.org/stable/3246652
• United Nations Statistics Division - Common
  Database. Belarus. 2008. Available at
  http//unstats.un.org/unsd/cdb/cdb_country_prof_re
  sults.asp?crID112cpID21
• World Population Prospects. Belarus
  (Population, 1995 to 2050). 2006 Revision
  Population Database. Available at
  http//esa.un.org/unpp

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?h? End
From Novosti.dn.ua