Title: MDM4U Culminating Project Unemployment and Divorce in Ontario
1MDM4U Culminating ProjectUnemployment and
Divorce in Ontario
- By
- Rachel Wang
- Glebe Collegiate Institute
- For Mr. Garvin Boyle
2Contents
- Introduction
- Thesis Question and Hypothesis
- Data Preparation
- Analysis of Graphs
- Observations
- Interpretations
- Conclusions and Considerations for the next
project - Summary
3Introduction
- This is the second portion of the culminating
project for the MDM4U Data Management course. - The purpose of this project was to retrieve and
investigate possible relationship(s) between
variables. - Five variables were retrieved from the Statistics
Canada database - Rate of induced abortions per 1,000 females in
between the ages of 25 and 29. - Unemployment rate of population in between the
ages of 25 and 44. - Total number of divorces.
- Rate of crimes of violence per 100,000
individuals. - Net financial debt, in millions of dollars, of
the Ontario provincial government
4Thesis and Hypothesis
- Thesis
- What correlation exists between the conditions of
economy and the stability of families in Ontario? - Hypothesis
- It was hypothesized that a strong positive
correlation exists between the unemployment rate
and the rate of divorce. When people become
unemployed, the standard of living decreases
dramatically, and this may cause psychological
issues such as anger and depression. This may
result in disagreement and arguments between a
couple, and may eventually lead to divorce.
5(No Transcript)
6Data Preparation
- Of the five variables that were collected, three
variables were measured in rates, which meant
that they were unaffected by population and
inflation - However, the total number of divorces contained
population-driven data, while the net financial
debt contained inflation-driven data. - To remove the effect of population, the total
number of divorces had to be divided by the total
population of Ontario, so that the divorce per
capita was found. - To remove the effect of inflation, current year
dollars must be converted into constant dollars
by dividing a value by its corresponding Consumer
Price Index, which measures the changes in
consumer prices, and multiplying by 100. In this
case, the base year was 2002, which meant that
the financial debt in 2002 will stay the same.
7Year Rate of Induced Abortions Unemployment Rate Number of Divorces per capita Rate of Crimes of Violence Net Financial Debt in millions of constant dollars
1984 14.1 7.9 0.0032 684.5 36188.6
1985 13.2 7.1 0.0030 723.2 38347.9
1986 13.2 6.3 0.0039 769.1 43040.2
1987 13.6 5.4 0.0054 842.8 44179.9
1988 14.0 4.6 0.0044 867.3 44794.4
1989 15.2 4.8 0.0041 907.3 43487.4
1990 19.5 5.8 0.0037 968.1 47881.8
1991 20.4 9.0 0.0035 1042.6 49716.0
1992 21.4 10.1 0.0038 1045.2 61611.8
1993 22.9 10.4 0.0036 1051.7 75321.1
1994 23.5 9.1 0.0037 1003.9 90970.5
1995 24.4 8.2 0.0035 962.4 99130.2
1996 24.9 8.7 0.0030 933.8 109995.5
1997 23.7 7.4 0.0028 908.6 115994.4
1998 22.1 6.2 0.0029 896.4 119356.5
1999 20.7 5.5 0.0030 852.8 117706.7
2000 20.7 4.9 0.0029 886.7 112943.2
2001 20.1 5.6 0.0029 874.4 105244.9
2002 19.7 6.5 0.0028 828.7 103510.0
2003 19.1 6.0 0.0029 779.5 99913.3
8One-Variable Analysis
- The twenty data points of unemployment rates were
plotted into five intervals. The graph appeared
to be slightly right skewed, with the bin of the
lowest interval having the highest frequencies,
but generally uniform distribution. This
suggests that the Ontario economy is in a stable
condition, and the trend is that during majority
of the twenty years, the unemployment rates were
fairly low.
9The data collected during the twenty years form
1984 to 2003 were put into five bins of equal
intervals. The graph appeared to be right
skewed, in which most number of data points were
located in the bin with the lowest values, and
least number of data points were located in the
bin with the highest values. This suggests that
most married couples in Ontario were content with
their marriages, and that they were in good
relationship with their spouses.
10Two-Variable Analysis
- The unemployment rate of population between the
ages of 25 and 44 in Ontario from 1984 to 2003
was placed on the x-axis, while the number of
divorces per capita in Ontario over the same time
interval was placed on the y-axis. A regression
line was plotted to show the relationship.
11- Observations
- There appeared to be a very weak negative
relationship between the two variables, with a
coefficient of determination of 0.0129. - The closer the value is to 1, the stronger the
correlation. - Interpretations
- This weak relationship indicates that the
financial stability of a family has little effect
on the decision of a couple to get divorced, and
occasionally, when the unemployment rate
increases, the divorce rate actually decreases.
It may be possible that during financially
difficult times is when couples support each
other and stay together. When the standard of
living is stable and high, people become
unsatisfied, and problems arise which may result
in divorce.
12- Of the other five variables that were collected,
other than the two variables that were the
interests of the study, correlation graphs of
other variables can also be created. The net
financial debt of the Ontario provincial
government and the rate of induced abortions were
graphed using a scatter plot.
13- Observations
- The coefficient of determination, which indicates
the strength of the relationship, was above 0.5,
which indicates a moderately strong positive
relationship between the two variables. - Interpretations
- When the government is in debt, it indicates a
weak economy. - When the economy is not strong, it may be
reflected in elements such as decrease in
employment rate and inflation resulting in
increase in prices of products, which will
decrease the standard of living of individuals. - When a person is in financial difficulty, he/she
may become unable to support a newborn child, so
those who find themselves being pregnant may seek
induced abortions as a solution.
14Conclusions and consideration for a next project
- The hypothesis was that a strong correlation
existed between the unemployment rate and number
of divorce per capita. - The observation was that there was no correlation
between the two variables. - The hypothesis was incorrect.
- In the next project, some other aspects of
society can be considered, and find factors that
have an effect on the rate of divorce.
15Summary
- The primary interest of this project was to find
possible causes for divorce in Ontario. - Five variables were retrieved and modified, all
of which contained data collected within Ontario - Rate of Induced Abortions
- Unemployment rate
- Number of divorce per capita
- Rate of crimes of violence
- Net financial debt of Ontario provincial
government - The hypothesis was that an increased unemployment
rate would cause an increase in the number of
divorce per capita. - Through analysis of graphs, it was observed that
there was no correlation between the two
variables, so the hypothesis was proven to be
false. - A strong positive correlation was found to exist
between the rate of induced abortions and the net
financial debt of the provincial government.