Title: Spatio-temporal%20information%20in%20society:%20modelling
1Spatio-temporal information in society modelling
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2What is a model?
- A model is a simplified representation of a
phenomenon, process, actor, system, or any
complex entity.
3Examples of models atom
- Concept
- Indivisible entities over which matter is built
- Model
- Dalton, 1807 ? solid sphere
- Thomson, 1904 ? plum pudding
- Rutherford, 1911 ? Positive nucleus negative
electrosphere - Bohr, 1913 ? Nucleus electrons with different
levels of energy - Schrondinger, Pauli ? Subatomic particles
Bohr, 1913
Dalton, 1807
Thomson, 1904
Rutherford, 1911
4Examples of models Shape of the Earth
- Concept
- Place where we live. Environment.
- Model
- Flat ? archaic belief
- Spherical
- Pythagoras (AD 570) ? Suggested that Earth could
be spherical - Aristotle (AD 330) ? First evidence
semi-circular shadow at moon - Eratosthenes (AD 240) ? First estimate of Earths
circumference - Mathematics
- Scotsman McLaurin (1742) ? Flat
- Carl Jacobi (1834) ? Elipsoidal
- Henri Poincaré (1885) ? Periform
- Dynamic ? Modern geodesy
Dynamic geoid
Flat
Spheric
Ellipsoid
Periform
5Earth Our Environment
6What is a Model?
Deforestation in Amazonia in 2020?
- simplified representation of a process
- Model entities attributes interactions
change rules
graphics INPE, Pesquisa FAPESP
7Computational models
Connect expertise from different fields Make the
different conceptions explicit
If (... ? ) then ...
Desforestation?
8Computational models
Connect expertise from different fields Make the
different conceptions explicit
Territory (Geography)
Money (Economy)
Culture (Antropology)
Modelling (GIScience)
9A typical spatial model What causes tropical
deforestation?
source Espindola, 2012
10Dynamic Models
Time t
Time t 1
F(S)
S
World
E(S)
E(S)
f(s)
s
Model
Source Miller and Page 2005?
11Dynamic Models
1997
2007
?
S
?
?
World
Modell
f(s)
12Hanna Fry, CASA, UCL
13Toblers first law in a connected world?
People still live in places. The space of places
is a consequence of human history. However,
function and power in our societies are organized
in the space of flows. Flows of capital, flows of
information, flows of technology, flows of
organizational interactions, flows of images,
sounds and symbols. (Castells, The Rise of
Network Society).
14Dynamic Spatial Models
f (It)
f (It1)
f (It2)
f ( Itn )
F
F
. .
"A dynamical spatial model is a computational
representation of a real-world process where a
location on the earths surface changes in
response to variations on external and internal
dynamics" (Peter Burrough)
15Dynamic Spatial Models
graphics Cláudia Almeida
Tnow - 20
Tnow 10
Tnow
16Which is the better model?
17 Question 1 for human-environment models
What ontological kinds (data types) are required
for human-environment models?
Fields
Cells (objects)
18Concepts for spatial dynamical models
Events and processes
Resilience
19Concepts for spatial dynamical models
vulnerability
degradation
20Concepts for spatial dynamical models
biodiversity
sustainability
and much more
Human-environmental models need to describe
complex concepts (and store their attributes in a
database)
21Question 2 for human-environment models
What models are needed to describe human actions?
22Clocks, clouds or ants?
Clouds statistical distributions
Clocks deterministic equations
Ants emerging behaviour
23Statistics Humans as clouds
ya0 a1x1 a2x2 ... aixi E
- Establishes statistical relationship with
variables that are related to the phenomena under
study - Basic hypothesis stationary processes
- Example CLUE Model (University of Wageningen)
Fonte Verburg et al, Env. Man., Vol. 30, No. 3,
pp. 391405
24Driving factors of change (deforestation)
source Aguiar (2006)
25Statistics Humans as clouds
source Aguiar (2006)
Statistical analysis of deforestation
26Where does this image come from?
27Where does this image come from?
Map of the web (Barabasi) (could be brain
connections)
28Information flows in Nature
Ant colonies live in a chemical world
29Conections and flows are universal
Yeast proteins (Barabasi and Boneabau, SciAm,
2003)
Scientists in Silicon Valley (Fleming and Marx,
Calif Mngt Rew, 2006)
30Information flows in the brain
Neurons transmit electrical information, which
generate conscience and emotions
31Information flows generate cooperation
Foto National Cancer Institute, EUA
http//visualsonline.cancer.gov/
White cells attact a cancer cell (cooperative
activity)
32Information flows in planet Earth
Mass and energy transfer between points in the
planet
33From galaxies.
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
34to cyclones 100 km
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
35Gene expression and cell interaction
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
Amoeba
Ribosome
Root Tip
E Coli
36The processing of information by the brain
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
37Animal societies and the emergence of culture
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
38Results of human society such as economies
Source John Finnigan (CSIRO)
39Complex adaptative systems
How come that an ecosystem with all its diverse
species functions and exhibits patterns of
regularity?
- How come that a city with many inhabitants
functions and exhibits patterns of regularity?
40What are complex adaptive systems?
- Systems composed of many interacting parts that
evolve and adapt over time. - Organized behavior emerges from the simultaneous
interactions of parts without any global plan.
41What are complex adaptive systems?
42Universal Computing
Computing studies information flows in natural
systems...
...and how to represent and work with information
flows in artificial systems