Elections

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Elections

• Wilson Chapter 8

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Lets start with elections
Elections

• Presidential vs Congressional races
• Presidential races are more competitive but in
  either, the incumbent usually wins!!! Also
  presidential races are closer in the final voting
• Smaller turnout in congressional races means the
  candidate must appeal to the party voter!!
• Members of congress can do things the pres. Cant
  such as claiming direct help for the people of
  the state such as job programs
• Members of congress can claim they are not part
  of the Washington mess

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Coattails??

• Lots of incumbents get reelected to Congress for
  the last three reasons on the previous slide
• It used to be that the president of your party
  would almost automatically mean youd get elected
  if he was popular but not so much any more

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How to be the President

• First you have to be mentioned in the media
• It takes a lot of WORK!!!
• Come from various backgrounds including
  governors, senators, members of congress or war
  heros
• You need money, lots of money and a lot comes
  from PACs. Individuals can only give 2000 while
  a PAC can give 5000. To get matching funds you
  must get donations from 20 different
  statesconfusing??
• It gets worse

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More Mr. or Mrs. President

• You need a huge organization of fundraisers,
  lawyers, secretaries, advertising, accountants
  and volunteers!!! You also need advisors and
  someone to write papers and speeches
• What about campaign strategy
• Tone positive or negative
• Theme a simple appealing idea to repeat
• Timing focus on primaries or the convention
• Target who to aim at, those who change vote
  perhaps or certain groups like farmers

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How about Congress????

• First, how many to elect?? It depends on the
  size of the state, districts and their shapes
• Congress decided in 1911 to set the House at 435
  seats and in 1929 to reapportion every 10 years
• So some states lose seats while others gain
• District boundaries are always
• redrawn to cheat the system
• called malapportionment
• and gerrymandering

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Okay, now lets get elected

• First you need signatures and then win the
  primary
• Once elected you quickly learn to take care of
  your constituents by ensuring you do what they
  want
• Congressional members are trustees and delegates
• Delegates want to be reelected more than anything
  and will do whatever it takes
• Trustees tend to look at bigger picture that has
  fewer implications for their home district

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Qualifications for all the jobs

• House of Representatives
• 25 years old citizen for 7 years live in
  state
• Senator
• 30 years old citizen for 9 years live in
  state
• President
• 35 years old born in USA

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Primary vs general campaigns

• Primary elections choose a parties candidates
  sort of like the playoffs
• General elections pick the winners who will
  actually hold office the championship
• Very different group of voters and helpers
• You must rally the troops for each primary
  reaching for the extremes of your party then
  often back off in the general election
• People who get involved in primaries are the
  hard core political activists!!!

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Campaign issues

• Position issues opposing viewpoints usually
  along partisan lines (security, defense,
  abortion, gay marriage)
• Valence issues viewpoints in which the public
  is united and rival candidates follow similar
  positions hoping to gain popular support - as if
  they were on the same side as the public (social
  security, welfare)

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Role of the media

• Name recognition from TV spots and even news (low
  cost and reliable)
• Debates usually only advantage to challenger -
  performance is huge (Reagan, Kennedy)
• Careful not to slip up so rely on stock
  speeches and proven themes for applause
• Internet great for direct mail campaigns
• So worried about reelection that campaigning and
  government are linked together - candidates need
  media consultants to succeed

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Show me the

• Presidential primaries - public and private
  with federal matching funds for donations over
  250 per individual
• Presidential general elections all public money
  totaling 74 million in 2004
• Congressional elections are mostly private
• Up to 2000 per individual and 5000 for PACs

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Rules about

• Watergate and illegal donations in 1972 created
  1974 Campaign Reform law and FEC
• Set limit then of 1000 per individual
• Guidelines for PACs
• Guidelines for public funding of elections
• Loopholes
• Soft money is unlimited as long as its given to
  a political party
• PACs can spend as much as they want as long as
  its not coordinated with a candidate

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More recent changes

• Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2000
  created 3 big changes!!!
• Banned soft money to national parties from
  corporations and unions
• Raised individual limit to 2000
• Sharply restricted independent expenditures -
  groups cant use their own money in an ad
  referring to a specific candidate 30 days before
  a primary and 60 days before a general election
  (positive or negative ads)

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Court challenges and 527s

• The previous act was immediately challenged in
  court as a violation of free speech but the
  Supreme Court upheld the new laws
• Both parties have 527 organizations that can
  spend soft money like before and can spend
  their money on politics.
• In 2009, a Federal Appeals Court ruled that 527s
  have a First Amendment right to raise and spend
  freely to influence elections so long as they do
  not coordinate their activities with a candidate
  or a party
• 527s raised and spent 333 million in 2004

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2010 527 Spending
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Money and winning

• Presidential candidates all get federal money
• During peacetime three key factors
• Party affiliation
• Economy (called pocketbook voting)
• Candidates character
• cant forget VP candidates role,
• religion, and the media

I WIN, I WIN
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Who decides who wins???

• Party affiliation? Republicans vote more than
  Democrats and are more wed to their party
• More independents vote Republican
• Issues (economy) or strong principles (abortion)
  judging the incumbents' performance, and timing
  of elections (midterm or not)
• The campaign negative or positive, core values
  and character, themes over detailed issues
  (single issue voters vote in blocks)
• A winning coalition loyalty to a party,
  specific ethnic or religious voters, volume of
  voters

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A little election history

• Broad election trends
• 1876-1896 very competitive among parties
• 1896-1932 Republicans dominant
• 1932-1952 Democrats dominant
• 1952-now changed hands frequently
• Public policy has remained pretty much the same
  and pace of change has been moderate thanks to
  the Constitution!!!
• Elections are important but tend to be voter
  judgments of the president and congress
• Political parties have less sway over voters

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• In the US, strong shifts in public policies have
  usually paralleled realignments.
• One exception is 1964, when mass election of
  Democrats gave rise to programs such as Medicare
  and Medicaid, federal aid to education and local
  law enforcement, two dozen environmental and
  consumer-protection laws, the Voting Rights Act
  of 1965, and other massive, sweeping changes.
• In 1980, the voters brought in a much more
  conservative Congress, led by Reagan, who made
  cuts on many excess programs and tried to
  reduced spending.