Decision Making Steps

1
Decision Making Steps
1. Recognize that problem/opportunity exists
2. Diagnose/ Analyze Causes
6. Evaluate decision
3. Develop alternatives
5. Implement solution
4. Choose best solution
2
Decision-Making Contingencies
GOAL CONSENSUS (Problem Identification Steps 1
2)
LOW
HIGH
HIGH
1
2
RATIONAL APPROACH COMPUTATION
BARGAINING COALITION FORMATION
TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE (Problem Solution Steps 3)
4
3
JUDGMENT INTUITION TRIAL AND ERROR
BARGAINING JUDGMENT Garbage Can Model
LOW
3
Garbage Can Model Implications

• Problems may persist without solutions being
  attempted.
• Solutions may be attempted without solving
  problems.
• Solutions may be proposed to problems that do not
  exist.
• A few problems are solved.
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vd7LAN_FB1Nc

4
With 600 jobs in jeopardy, would you make a
decision that would result in

• A) a 100 chance of saving 200 jobs? OR
• B) a 33 1/3 chance of saving 600 jobs and a 66
  2/3 chance of saving no jobs?

5
With 600 jobs in jeopardy, would you make a
decision that would result in

• C) a 100 chance of losing 400 jobs?
• OR
• D) a 33 1/3 chance of losing no jobs and a 66
  2/3 chance of losing 600 jobs?

6
A and C are exactly the same

• A) a 100 chance of saving 200 jobs
• Equals
• C) a 100 chance of losing 400 jobs

7
B and D are exactly the same

• B) a 33 1/3 chance of saving 600 jobs and a 66
  2/3 chance of saving no jobs
• Equals
• D) a 33 1/3 chance of losing no jobs and a 66
  2/3 chance of losing 600 jobs

8
A,B,C,D are all statistically equal

• That is, they all have the same long-run
  expected value
• But A is preferred over B and D over C.

9
Framing

• To prevent the way a problem is presented
  (framing) from biasing the decision
• Try to look at problem in different ways
• Re-word it
• Put yourself in the position of other people
• Leave the problem and come back to it later

10
Myers-Briggs Test

• Has 4 dimensions
• Extraversion vs. Introversion
• Judger vs. Perceiver
• (decisive vs. flexible)
• Sensing vs. Intuiting
• Sensing - Look at the facts, details
• Intuiting - Get a general overview, the big
  picture
• Thinking vs. Feeling
• Thinking - Analyze objectively, reason
• Feeling - Consider the impact on people

11
Myers-Briggs Types
Higher and lower positions in each of the
dimensions are used to classify people into one
of sixteen different personality types.
12
VroomsNormative Decision Model
(Leader-Participation Model)

• Helps gauge the appropriate amount of
  participation for subordinates
• 5 levels of leader participation styles ranging
  from highly autocratic to highly democratic.

13
VroomsNormative Decision Model Styles

• A1 Leader makes decision alone
• A2 Leader obtains information from
  subordinates, then makes decision alone
• C1 Leader obtains suggestions from subordinates
  individually, then makes decision alone
• C2 Leader obtains suggestions from subordinates
  collectively, then makes decision alone
• G Decision by group consensus

14
Vroom Model

• Participation is permitted primarily to
• Enhance Decision Quality
• Foster Subordinate Morale
• Series of questions asked about the situation
  (leader expertise, importance of subordinate
  commitment, etc.)

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16
Trends Toward Greater Participation by
Lower-Level Employees

• Education
• Technology
• Downsizing
• Deregulation
• Globalization

17
Creative People

• Background Knowledge
• Curiosity
• Open-mindedness
• Self-Confidence
• Not afraid to be different
• Persistence
• Relaxed and playful attitude

18
Creative Organizations

• Selection Creative people identified by past
  achievements, tests
• Free time to create
• Freedom to choose problems
• Low Bureaucracy
• Long time orientation
• Tolerate Failures
• Reward Successes