NDIA STEM WORKFORCE DIVISION

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NDIA STEM WORKFORCE DIVISION

• Edward Swallow
• NDIA STEM Workforce Division Chair
• Vice President, Northrop Grumman

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STEM Workforce Division
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STEM Workforce Division Board Members
IDIQ, Inc.
Omnisat, LLC
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STEM Workforce NeedsData Availability

• For last 3 years, Aviation Week Space
  Technology, NDIA and AIA have collaborated on an
  AD wide survey of STEM Employment
• Valuable data around hiring trends, retirement
  trends, vacant positions, etc. are available
• Presenting a subset today to help understand a
  couple of points
• DoD budget variability does not appear to
  directly correlate to Industrial STEM employment
  variability
• Program variability does (i.e. what
  programs/initiatives are being funded)
• The Perfect Storm has been postponed for a
  little while
• Retirements will pick up as soon as the stock
  market does
• Supply does not meet demand today, and its
  getting worse

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Industry Average Age

• Average age 2009 and 2005 was 44
• YPs in 2000 35 vs 22 in 2010

Average Age 45.7
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Retirement by Size
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Retirement Data
2008 Retired 2008 Eligible 2010 Retired 2010 Eligible 2011 Eligible 2012 Eligible 2013 Eligible
Overall 1.22 13.75 14.71 17.07
Engineering 2.37 8.29 .93 10.97 12.51 14.99 17.4
Software Dev .43 5.91 7.89 8.87
RD 14.9 15.3 .92 13.73 15.7 17.70 24.8
Test Eval .86 12.43 14.45 16.61
Info Tech 4.25 10.77 .82 8.98 9.35 11.23 16.38
Eng Tech Aides 3.87 13.07 1.32 12.17 13.8 16.19 22.9
Prog Mgt 5.28 13.83 1.51 12.99 14.45 16.7 25.26
Finance 7.41 12.45 .89 9.8 10.89 12.9 19.67
Bus Dev 7.5 18.8 1.47 14.15 15.12 17.5 26.37
Supply Ch 1.08 12.05 13.8 15.4
Sustainment 1.33 13.13 14.3 17.6
Non-Exempt 6.11 11.4 1.99 15.4 16.49 19.4 20.24
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Compensation - Industry
Ave Lvl 1 Ave Lvl 2 Ave Lvl 3 Ave Lvl 4 Ave Lvl 5 Ave Lvl 6
Aero Eng 61,379 70,905 88,342 106,756 130,966 145,832
Chem Eng 59,141 68,941 84,821 100,635 126,786 147,027
Comp Hardware Eng 62,762 74,001 93,474 111,957 134,916 166,598
Comp Sware Eng 58,590 69,858 85,380 103,300 128,091 157,175
E E 58,093 68,964 84,463 105,486 126,960 158,714
Ind Eng 56,949 65,732 78,144 97,319 119,516 143,177
Mats Eng 64,729 74,155 84,942 103,377 127,843 160,045
Mech Eng 58,709 67,434 82,415 101,515 122,833 143,424
Nuc Eng NA 91,762 126,950 132,537 127,344 146,342
Sys Eng 61,139 70,910 86,428 151,128 129,305 153,857
Applied Math/Stat Analysis 57,447 72,248 92,176 110,876 132,664 155,945
Chem/Mats Sci 59,630 69,800 87,131 110,843 137,968 159,791
Physics 69,255 80,701 101,680 120,953 140,180 174,960
Bus Process Mgt 51,518 107,250 75,575 92,317 112,086 151,431
Prog Mgt 47,120 71,392 95,382 116,993 141,811 165,296
Business Dev 60,146 72,728 78,485 112,234 126,343 167,116
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Open Requisitions 2010-2012 (projected)
Source Aviation Week 2010 Workforce Study
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Supply Chain ModelCurrent STEM Graduates
Graduate With STEM Degree
STEM Major
Proficient Interested
Proficient (proficient or advanced)
167,000 Expectedin 2011 (1)
278,000 in 2005
17
32
Proficient Not Interested
Non-STEM Major
Not Proficient (basic or below basic)
SE Degrees Awarded Per Year (Millions)
25
Not Proficient Interested
68
15
2-year College
1998
2006
Proportion of SE of first university degrees in
2006
Not Proficient Not Interested
China
USA
47
16
42
Total 1.5M
Total 1.7M
2,799,000 Grads in classof 2005
4,013,000 Beginning 9th grade in 2001
1,170,000 Enrolled in 4-year College
Secondary
Career
College
Elementary
Source 2011 Department Of Education, Michael
Lach, Special Assistant to Secretary for STEM
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Conclusions

• The Perfect Storm Category 5 is near
• Low supply of clearable, highly skilled workers,
  engineers and scientists is real
• Salaries are accelerating which indicates demand
  outstripping supply
• The DoD Budget is only part of the challenge
• If the economy improves, retirement goes up
  rapidly and demand accelerates
• If the economy continues to stagnate or decline,
  retirement stays low and supply starts to
  overtake demand
• If the demand increases significantly due to
  abrupt change in security threat, salaries will
  accelerate as the supply tries to keep up
• Rotation through the industry and mid-career
  entrants will be required
• The 2012 McKinsey-AWST-NDIA-AIA Survey has a
  2012 Baseline DoD Budget Built In
• Excursions can provide insight for the study
  estimating process

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"We can't solve problems by using the same kind
of thinking we used when we created them
Albert Einstein
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more
complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of
genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the
opposite direction Albert
Einstein
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2010 Aviation Week and Space Technology Survey
Results

• Designed to provide a single reliable source for
  workforce data in the aerospace and defense (AD)
  fields
• Findings
• The number of open positions at companies for new
  grads dropped
• Retirement rates declined
• College campus hires growing, however, among
  large organizations
• Recent economic pressures have led to pay rate
  fluctuations
• Increasing levels of voluntary attrition are
  being combated by promotions in small
  organizations
• Voluntary attrition rate has declined to 6.71
  from 9.7, which it was last year
• Young professionals achieve a rate exceeding 20,
  however

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2010 Aviation Week and Space Technology Survey
Results

• Real job growth in 2009 was at 3, with 2010
  declining to 1.5
• 7,000 current job openings in 2010. This slowdown
  from the 27,000 open reqs in 2008 is attributed
  to economic downturn
• 58 of engineering jobs in 2010 require some kind
  of security clearance, up from 53 in 2008
• There is still a need to monitor students
  throughout schooling and put them on track for a
  clearance
• There is a projected drop in the hiring of
  aerospace engineers in 2012 from 211 to 20
• There will be an increase of software,
  electrical, and materials engineering in 2011
• May be tied to increased demand from two
  rotorcraft and one tanker program
• There is an increase in the demand for supply
  chain experts
• 153 as of April 2010, but 400 predicted for the
  rest of 2010, as well as each subsequent year
  going to 2012