Introduction%20to%20Decision%20Support%20Systems

1
Introduction to Decision Support Systems

• ?. ??????????? ???????????
• ?????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????

?????????? 2555
2
????? 1 ????????????????????????????(Introduction
to Decision Support Systems )
3
???????

1. ???????????????????????????????????
2. ?????????????????????????????????????
3. ?????????????????????????
4. ????????????????????
5. ??????????????????????
6. ?????????????????????????????????????????
7. ???????????????????????? DSS
8. ?????????????????????? DSS
9. ??????????? DSS
10. ????????? DSS

4
1. ???????????????????????????????????

• ??????????? (Decision Making) ???
• ????????????????????????????????????????????? ?
  ???????????????????????????????????
  (???????????????????????????)
• ??????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????
  ?
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ? ???????????????????????

5

• ?????????????????????????????? (???)
• ?????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????? What-if
  ????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????? ??????-??????
• ???????????????????????? ????????????????????????

6
2. ?????????????????????????????????????

• ??????????????????? (Structured Problem)
• ??????????????????? ?????? ?????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? (?????????????????????)
  ??? ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???
• ??????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ????
• ??????????????????????????????????????
  ?
• ???????????????????????????????????
  
• ?????????????????

7
2. ????????????????????????????????????? (???)

• ?????????????????????? (Unstructured Problem)
• ???????????????????? ?????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
  ??????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ????????????????

8
2. ????????????????????????????????????? (???)

• ????????????????????? (Semi-Structured Problem)
• ?????????????????? ?????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????? ????????????????????
  ? ??????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ???????? ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????
• ??????????????????????? (AI) ???????????????????
  ????

9
3. ?????????????????????????

• ????????????????? (Decision Making Process)

??? ??????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????
Intelligence Phase (???)
Decision Making Process
Design Phase (??????)
Problem Solving Process
Choice Phase (?????)
Implementation Phase (???????)
Monitoring Phase (????????)
10
????????????????? (Decision Making Process)

• ????????????? (Intelligence Phase)
• ?????????????????????????????, ??????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ????????????????????????????
  Decision Statement ???? ????????????
• ????????? (Design Phase)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????
• - Model (????????)
• - Decision Tree (??????????????????????????)
• - Decision Table (????????????????)
• ??????????????????????????? (Choice Phase)
• ???????????????????????????????????????? ?
  ????????????????????????? ????????????????????????
  ??????????????

11
????????????????? (Decision Making Process)

• ?????????? (Implementation Phase)
• ????????????????????????????? Choice Phase
  ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ????????????????
• ??????????? (Monitoring Phase)
• ?????????????????????????? Implementation Phase
  ?????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ????????????????

12
Notation Used in Decision Trees

• A box is used to show a choice that the
  manager has to make.
• A circle is used to show that a probability
  outcome will occur.
• Lines connect outcomes to their choice or
  probability outcome.

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Decision Tree Example 1
Joes garage is considering hiring another
mechanic. The mechanic would cost them an
additional 50,000 / year in salary and benefits.
If there are a lot of accidents in Providence
this year, they anticipate making an additional
75,000 in net revenue. If there are not a lot
of accidents, they could lose 20,000 off of last
years total net revenues. Because of all the
ice on the roads, Joe thinks that there will be a
70 chance of a lot of accidents and a 30
chance of fewer accidents. Assume if he
doesnt expand he will have the same revenue as
last year. Draw a decision tree for Joe and tell
him what he should do.
14
.7
.3

• Estimated value of Hire Mechanic NPV
  .7(70,000) .3(- 20,000) - 50,000 - 7,000
• Therefore you should not hire the mechanic

15
Decision Tree Example 2
Mary is a manager of a gadget factory. Her
factory has been quite successful the past three
years. She is wondering whether or not it is a
good idea to expand her factory this year. The
cost to expand her factory is 1.5M. If she
does nothing and the economy stays good and
people continue to buy lots of gadgets she
expects 3M in revenue while only 1M if the
economy is bad. If she expands the factory, she
expects to receive 6M if economy is good and 2M
if economy is bad. She also assumes that there
is a 40 chance of a good economy and a 60
chance of a bad economy. (a) Draw a Decision Tree
showing these choices.
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.4
.6
.4
.6
NPVExpand (.4(6) .6(2)) 1.5 2.1M
NPVNo Expand .4(3) .6(1) 1.8M
2.1 gt 1.8, therefore you should expand the
factory
NPV Net Present Value
17
Decision Table (If Conditions Then Actions)
Printer troubleshooter
Conditions Printer does not print Y Y Y Y N N N N
Conditions A red light is flashing Y Y N N Y Y N N
Conditions Printer is unrecognized Y N Y N Y N Y N
Actions Check the power cable     X          
Actions Check the printer-computer cable X   X          
Actions Ensure printer software is installed X   X   X   X  
Actions Check/replace ink X X     X X    
Actions Check for paper jam   X   X        
If Printer does not print AND A red light is
flashing AND Printer is recognized
Check/replace ink AND Check for paper jam
Then
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??????????

• Ex1 1. ???????????????????? ??? 2.
  ?????????????? ??? 3. ?????????????????????
• ??????????????? 1. ????????????????????
  ? 2. ???????????? ???????
• ???? Driver 3. ???????????
• Ex2 ??????????????????????????
• ?????????????????? ???????????
• Ex3 ?????????????????????
• ??????????????? ???????????? ???????
  ???? Driver

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Example

• Rule 1
• IF it is raining AND it is not warm today
• THEN take an umbrella AND take an overcoat.
• Rule 2
• IF it is raining AND it is warm today
• THEN take a raincoat
• Rule 3
• IF it is not raining AND the weather forecast
  is fine AND it is warm today
• THEN do not take an umbrella, a raincoat, or an
  overcoat
• Rule 4
• IF it is not raining AND the weather forecast
  is fine AND it is not warm today
• THEN take an overcoat
• Rule 5
• IF it is not raining AND the weather forecast
  is not fine AND it is warm today
• THEN take an umbrella

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Example
????????????????
Weather Forecast
Conditions
Conditions
Conditions
Actions
Actions
Actions
It is raining
the weather forecast is fine
Y
N
It is warm today
X
Take an umbrella
X
X
Take A raincoat
Take An overcoat
X

• ???????????????????????????????
  (?????????????)?????????????
• ???? ???????????????? 4 ???????? ??????????
  2 ????????
• ??????????????????????????? 24 2x2x2x2
  16 ???????

21
4. ????????????????????
????????????????????
????????????????
?????????????????
????????????????????
22
4.1 ?????????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????????? (Personal Decision)
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????
• ??????????????????? (Group Decision)
• ??????????????? (Brainstorming)
  ????????????????????????????? ?????????????????
  ???????????????????? ?????????????????????????????
  ? ???????????????????????

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4.2 ??????????????????????????????????????????

• ????????????????????????? (Structured Decision)
• ??????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ???? ???????????????????????????
  ????????????, ?????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????? (Unstructured
  Decision)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????? ????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????????,
  ????????????????
• ??????????????????????????? (Semi-Structure
  Decision)
• ??????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????? ???????????????????????????
  ???????????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????

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4.3 ??????????????????????????????????????????????
?
Top Management
Strategic Decision
Middle Management
Tactical Decision
Lower Management
Operational Decision
25
???????????????????????????????????????????????
(???)

• ??????????????????????? (Strategic Decision)
• ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????? ????
  ????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????? (Management
  Control Decision)
• ????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????? ????
  ????????????????????????????? 3 ?????? ????? ???
  ??????????, ??? ??? ?????
• ?????????????????????????? (Operational Decision)
• ????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????? ?
  ?????????????????????????????? 3 ??????????????
  ????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ???? ??????? ??????????
  ??????????

26
5. ??????????????????????

• ??????????????????????????????????? (Decision
  Under Certainty Condition)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ???????????????????????????????
  ???????????????? ?????????????????? Structured
• ?????????????????????????????????????????
  (Decision Under Risk Condition)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????? (?????????????)
  ???????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????? (Decision
  Under Uncertainty Condition)
• ????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????? ?????????????????
  ????????????????????????????? (?????????????)
  ???????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
  ??????

27
?????? ???????????????????????????????????????
???????

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????
• ???????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????

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Information System
EIS
Executive Information System
DSS
Decision Support System
MIS
Management Information System
TPS
Transaction Processing System
Expert System
ES
Office Automation System
OAS
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6. ??????????????????????????????????????????
DSS
EIS
MIS
TPS
Generic Management
OAS
ES
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7. ???????????????????????????????????????????????

• Mr. Scott Morton (1971)
• ??????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ???????????????? ?????????????????????????????????
  (Data) ???????????(Model) ???? ?
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  (Unstructured Problem)???
• Mr. Keen Mr. Scott Morton (1978)
• ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????? ???????????????????????????
  ??????????????? ???????? ???? DSS ???????? ?
  ????? ?????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ?????????? ????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????? (Semistructured
  Problem) ?????????????????????

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????????????? DSS

• ??????? 1
• ?????? 1950 ????????????????????????????????????
  ??? ???????????????????? TPS ?????????????????????
  ????????? ??? ??????????????????????
• ??????? 2
• ????????? 1960-1970 ????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????? ?????????????????? ???????
  ????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????? (OAS)
• ??????? 3
• ????????? 1970-1980 ????????????????????????????
  ????? (DSS) ????????????????????????????????????
  ????? DSS ????????????????? 2 ?????????
  ?????????????????????????????????? (EIS)
  ?????????????????????????????????? (Group Support
  System GSS)

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????????????? DSS (???)

• ??????? 4
• ??????????????????? 1980 ???????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????? (Expert System ES)
• ???? 1990 ??????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????? (Data Warehouse)
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????? ???????????????????????????????????
  ? (Neural Network) ???????????????????????????????
  ??????????? ????????????????????????????? Natural
  Language Processing NLP) ????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????
• ??????? 5
• ???????????????? ??? ???????????????
  (Intelligence Agent) ????????????????????????????
  ????????????? ? ??????? ??????????????????????????
  ??

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8. ???????????? DSS

• 1. ???????????????? ?????????????
  ?????????????????????????
• 2. ???????????????????????????????????
• 3. ?????????????????????? ?????????????????
• 4. ????????????????????????? ???/????
  ????????????????????
• 5. ????????????????????????????????????
  Intelligence Phase, Design Phase, Implementation
  Phase ??? Choice Phase ????????????????????
  (Decision Making Process) ???
• 6. ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????

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8. ???????????? DSS (???)

• 7. ????????????????? (Flexibility)
  ??????????????????????
• 8. ?????????????????? ?????????????????????????
• 9. ???????????? DSS ??????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ????????????????????????
• 10. ????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????
• 11. ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ? ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????
• 12. ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????? ? ???????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ???????????????????????
• 13. ???????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????

35
9. ??????????? DSS

• ?????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????? ???????
• ?????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????? Groupware
  ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????? ???????????????? ?????????????????
• ???????????????????/?????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?? ???? ???????????????? (ES)
• ?????????????????????????????????

36
10. ????????? DSS

• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????
• 10.1 ???????
• 10.2 ????????? Holsapple ??? Whinston
• 10.3 ???????????
• 10.4 ?????????????

37
10.1 ??????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????? (File Drawer System)
• ????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? ????????????????????????????
• ???????? ???????????????????????????? ATM
  ?????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????? (Data Analysis System)
• ???????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????? ???????????? ???????????????????????
  ???????????? (??????) ?????????????????????? SQL
  ????????????????????? ???? Application Software
• ???? ????????????? Spreadsheet
  ???????????????????????????????????

38
?????????????????????????????????????? (???)

• ????????????????????? (Analysis Information
  System)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?? ???????????????????????????????? ?????
  ????????????? ?????????????????????????????????
• ???????? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????
  ?????? ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????

39
?????????????????????????????????????? (???)

• ???????????????????? (Accounting Model)
• ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ???? ?????????????????? ???????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????
• ???????? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ???????? ???????????????????????
• ????????????????? (Representational Model)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????? ? ?????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????

40
?????????????????????????????????????? (???)

• ????????????????????????????????????????
  (Optimization Systems)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????
• ?????????????? (Suggestion Systems)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????? ???????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????? ??????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? (Descriptive Models)
  ???????????????????? ?????????????????????????????
  ???????? ????????????????? Normative
  ????????????????????????????? ? ????????????????

41
10.2 ????????????????????????????????????????
Holsapple ??? Whinston

• ??????????????????????????????????????
  (Text-Oriented DSS)
• ????????????????? (???????????????????????)
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ???????? ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ????? ??????????????????????????????????? ????
  ???????? ?????????? ??????????????????????????????
  ???????????????? ????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????
  (Database-Oriented DSS)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????
  (Spreadsheet-Oriented DSS) ???? Excel
• Excel ????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????? ??????? ???????? ????????????????????
  Excel ????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ????????????????????????????????
  ???????????

42
????????????????????????????????????????
Holsapple ??? Whinston

• ???????????????????????????????????????
  (Solver-Oriented DSS)
• ???????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ??? Excel, LINGO, LINDO ????????????? ???? Linear
  Programming (???????????????) ??????????????????(?
  ????) ????????????????
• ?????????????????????? (Rule-Oriented DSS)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????
• ????????????????????????????? (Compound DSS)
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????

43
10.3 ??????????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????????????????????? (Personal
  Support)
• ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????? (Group Support)
• - ?????????????????????????????????? ??????????
  ????????????????????????
• - ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????
• - ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ???
• ???????????????????????????????? (Organizational
  Support)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????

44
10.4 ????????????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????????????????????????????????
  (Custom-Made System)
• ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????
• ???????? ???????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????? (Ready-Made
  System)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????? ? ?????????????? ?
  ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????????

45
Reference

• ???? ?????????????, ??????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????. ???????? ?????? ?????
  ????? ????????, 2546
• PowerPoint File ??? ?. ????????? ?????????? ?????
  ICT ??????????? ?????? ?????
• DSS ??????????2555 ???? 1