Forecasting and Decision Making Under Uncertainty

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An overview of cognitive feedback and an
illustration of cognitive feedback for the the
baseball task
JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING BEHAVIOR
PAD634 Department of Public Administration and
Policy Rockefeller College of Public
Administration and Policy University at Albany,
State University of New York http//www.albany.edu
/ts460/pad634.html
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Cognitive feedback

• CFB is a way of learning to improve accuracy of
  judgment under uncertainty
• CFB is an alternative to outcome FB - knowledge
  of results
• A. Difficult to learn because of causal ambiguity
• B. May actually deter learning

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Elements of cognitive feedback

• A. Task information (TI) - relations between cues
  and distal variable
• 1. Task uncertainty
• 2. Relations between each cue and criterion
• 3. Cue intercorrelations
• 4. Distribution of criterion

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Elements of cognitive feedback

• B. Cognitive information (CI)
• 1. Judgmental consistency
• 2. Relations between each cue and judgment
• 3. Cue intercorrelations (subjective)
• 4. Distribution of judgments

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Elements of cognitive feedback

• C. Functional validity information (FVI)
• 1. ra
• 2. G
• 3. C

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Optimal function forms for baseball task