COPING WITH THE 21ST CENTURY; THE ROLE OF WOODLANDS.

1
COPING WITH THE 21ST CENTURY THE ROLE OF
WOODLANDS.   

• Chris Pollock Aberystwyth University

2
CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL
3
Models suggest that climate change effects on
yield are positive or neutral at high
latitudes, but negative at low latitudes
4
THE MULTIPLIERS

• Growing competition for water
• Increasing population
• Increasing demand for animal products
• Increasing competition for land
• Increasing fragility of key ecosystems

How will these interact with the direct effects
to influence global supply networks?
5
Projections of water use and actual global water
withdrawals SCIENCE VOL 302 28 NOVEMBER 2003
6
Changes in biodiversity attributable to the
development of agriculture
Natural and semi-natural populations
Biodiversity
Unplanned populations (weeds etc)
Planned populations (crops etc)
10,000BC
1900 AD
Today
Redrawn from Edwards Hilbeck, 2001
7
(No Transcript)
8
POTENTIAL RISKS

• Rising Prices ()
• Increased price volatility ()
• Reduced security of supply ()
• Possible safety implications ()
• Reduction in consumer choice (????)
• Increased footprint of agriculture ()

9
SUSTAINABLE LAND USE Facilitates the long-term
generation of economic or societal benefits with
minimal impact on the environment and in a way
that supports the rural economy
10
The essential dilemma. Can we farm sustainably
and feed everyone?
11
THE INDUSTRY MUST RESPOND

• UK Climate Change Bill published
• All sectors expected to develop mitigation
  options
• Land Use has particular challenges
• N2O and CH4 more significant than CO2
• Very complex interactions determine scale of
  emissions
• Limited mitigation options

12
THERE ARE LOW-HANGING FRUIT

• Reduce direct CO2 emissions (1-2)
• Reduce CH4 emissions by maximising conversion
  efficiency and by good slurry management (5-10)
• Reduce N2O emissions by improved input management
  (10-15)
• Consider small-scale renewable energy

These can also reduce enterprise costs
13
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOODLAND

• Renewable energy
• Renewable building materials
• Carbon sequestration
• Habitat restoration and wildlife corridors
• Water Management
• Clean-up of diffuse pollution
• Enhancement of landscape diversity

14
THE BIG QUESTION

• Do we have the policy framework that will
  encourage sustainable land management in general
  and sustainable woodland development in
  particular?

15
THREE EXAMPLES WHERE WE DO NOT

• Compensation for income foregone does not value
  ecosystem services properly
• Micro-CHP is not yet profitable because of power
  company rules
• Residues from anaerobic digestion of municipal
  green waste cannot be applied to crops

16
CONCLUSIONS

• Climate change cannot be viewed in isolation
• Other factors will also impact on UK land use
• The industry will have to adapt
• There are specific opportunities for woodland
• Changes in policy and regulation are needed