Andrew Boswell

1

• Where Next for
• Climate Action?
• Addressing Social Justice, Ecological Restoration
  and Climate Safety in a world of limited
  resources
• introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell,
• core member biofuelwatch,
• climate and environmental campaigner,
• Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council

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Social Environmental Indigenous

• The only way we are going to put out the
  environmental fire is to get on the social
  justice bus and heal our wounds, because in the
  end, there is only one bus.

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Topics
Now!

• The science is real what are the issues?
• Climate Change (CC)
• Carbon sinks
• Runaway climate change
• Climate Stabilisation
• Community action
• International/national/local
• Getting on the one bus

Climate Change Resource Depletion Peak
Oil Biosink destruction
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Climate Change

• Global average predicted between 1.7 C and 6.8C
  by 2100 (IPCC(4) 2007)
• Will be unevenly spread eg some parts of Africa
  and poles twice this
• Water resources decimated
• Food supplies
• Flooding
• Environmental refugees
• Strange climate events
• Tropical cyclone Catarina, Brazil March 2004
• Norfolk Sea Surges

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How warming might happen?
yarqvy Source BBC Website
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IPCC 4th assessment
Hansen safe level
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Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

• Atmospheric CO2 growing 35 more quickly than
  lt2000
• 18 decline of natural sinks
• 17 - more fossil fuel use

GCP-Global Carbon Budget team Pep Canadell,
Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field,
Corinne Le Quéré, Skee Houghton, Gregg Marland,
Mike Raupach, Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan
Gillett
50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1
1.1, A1B 1.7, A2 1.8 A1FI 2.4
Observed 2000-2006 3.3
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
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Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Non-linear effect?
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Global Energy Projections, IEA, 2007
71 by 2030
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Emission sources

• Deforestation, agriculture and peat
• Anthropogenic energy

From Stern Report
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Wetlands / Peat
Kalimantan Peatland forest on fire
Pristine peat swamp forest, Sumatra.
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Rainforest
Rainforest fires
Tropical rainforest
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Runaway Climate Change

• Speed up of Arctic Ice Melt
• Loss of Ocean/Biosphere Carbon sinks
• Siberian Tundra melt (Methane)
• Deep Ocean Methane Hydrates
• Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
• Melting / break up of West Antartica Ice Sheet
• Switching off of Gulf Stream

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Permaforst
Carbon sinks Permafrost
Carbon releases when it melts
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(No Transcript)
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Positive feedbacks not on political radar

• IPCC Assessment Reports are scientifically
  conservative.
• Are constrained by what is politically and
  economically acceptable.
• Are also some two years out of date when
  published.
• Dynamic positive feedbacks emerging science
  during last 2 years
• All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group
  (APPCCG) trying to highlight

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How much warming / moreghgs is safe?

• None!
• We are experiencing effects from 30 years ago

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The issue is not can we stop climate change BUT
can we stop catastopic runaway climate change?
Rest of World
India
China
Annex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
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What could happen

• 185 million people sub-Saharan Africa (3x UK
  population) could die of disease. (Christian Aid
  report)
• Drought/soil erosion lead to many areas going
  into structural famine
• 800 million people malnourished now
• Could increase to 2bn
• Millions starving to death

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Food vs (bio) Fuel

• Low-Income Food-Deficit countries (LIFDCs)
  Social unrest / food riots
• Feed prices ?
• Huge industry denial
• Food sovereignty
• Best land taken for agrofuels
• Even import poor quality food
• 16 million starve per 1 commodity price rise

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1.5 m. rise in Bangladesh
But what we would desperately like to rely more
on is decisive international action to stop this
threat. Sabihuddin Ahmed High Commissioner of
Bangladesh to UK, Sept 25th 2006
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Indigenous peoples

• Crisis of land displacement, food sovereignty,
  climate/biofuel refugees, deforestation, loss of
  traditional ways
• Land grabbing by large corporations
• See climate change policy in North as problem
  as it is causing social injustice
• Need to get on same bus!

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Where we are at

• IPCC behind latest science
• Feedbacks not widely understood
• Sinks showing early signals of loosing efficacy?
• Sinks being destroyed
• Business as usual paradigm prevails
• International negotiations no teeth, too slow
• Indigenous and dispossessed disempowered,
  widening poverty gap

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What to do?

• Protect all carbon sinks
• URGENT Moratorium on all old-growth
  deforestation, peat-land burning and swampland
  drainage
• URGENT decarbonisation of global economy
• Post-Kyoto with deep cut Contraction and
  convergence model
• LOCAL ACTION AND BLESSED UNREST
• Unite North-South, Social Action and Ecological
  protection

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Protect all carbon sinks

• URGENT Moratorium on all old-growth
  deforestation, peat-land burning and swampland
  drainage

• Must be protected against destruction for timber,
  food growing and biofuels development

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Ecological restoration

• Where can big emissions be cut quickly and cost
  effectively?
• CUT deforestation -
• 2Gt CO2 / yr
• STOP SE ASIA Peat fires 1.3Gt CO2 / yr
• Regenerate peat lands 0.5Gt
• 8 of current GHGs

• UNFCCC must act at Bali

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Ecological Impacts

• Massive land use change
• Renton Righelato and Dominick V. Spracklen,
  Science, August 2007
• Ecological restoration and forestation would
  sequester 2-9 more carbon than biofuels

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Contraction and Convergence
Business as Usual (BAU)
Emissions are contracting
Rest of World
India
China
Converging to per capita level
Annex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
Continue to contract to post carbon era
2100
1950
2000
2050
1900
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UNDP Report pre-Bali
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Changing UK situation?

• White paper 13/3/07
• 26-32 by 2020 (c.2.1-2.6 annum)
• 60 by 2050
• Govt. wants only 5 year targets
• Brown not interested in environment
• IPPR report at least 80 cuts needed
• UNDP pre-Bali at least 80 cuts
• George Monbiot 90 by 2030
• GM now thinking 100

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There is NO 2 excuse !

• Phil Woolas, Minister of Climate Change said on
  20th September we see that as much as 15 of
  world carbon emissions are a direct result of UK
  economic activity both at home and abroad.
• Global spread of City business interests
• Imports from China etc our dependence on their
  economy AND THEIR EMISSIONS
• For the full context of this, see
• http//tinyurl.com/ywoo44

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UNDP
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Changing EU situation?

• EU 10/3/07
• Binding unilateral target for a 20 reduction in
  greenhouse gases for the EU by 2020
• (c. 1.5 per annum)
• BUT
• Based on business as usual energy growth
• has destructive biofuel policy
• and Nuclear etc
• Merkel UNFCCC bargaining
• 30 greenhouse gas reductions on 1990 levels for
  developed countries by 2020 if other big
  polluters come on board
• (c. 2.3 per annum)

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Changing US situation?

• Schwarzenegger California 2006 c. 1 annum
• Boxer Bill
• 80 by 2050

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UK can lead

• Internationally at UNFCCC, Bali
• Germany taking a strong line
• US! We do have the wherewithal to take on this
  challenge, and restructure our economy and ways
  of living to make deep cuts to our emissions. 
  People have managed such change before for
  example during the second world war.  I already
  see people starting to do this at every level
  from the community to local government to
  national government to industry etc.  Its time to
  stop arguing about the need to do it and just get
  on with it. 

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Environmental Action Hierarchy

• UN, Post-Kyoto
• EU/US/India/China
• Energy policy
• Carbon trading
• Sustainable Development
• Agriculture
• Localised planning
• Localised economy
• Participatory democracy
• Local Action
• Transition towns

• International/Global
• Continental
• National
• Regional
• Shire
• District
• Personal/Community

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Decarbonisation
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Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand
reduction is key
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Current EU energy policy
Reduce vehicle emissions by 50 - smaller, more
efficient vehicles
90 carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY!
Reduce journeys planning, modal shift, decouple
transport from economy
Reduce liquid fuel plug-in hybrids
Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ?
1990 2000 2010
2020
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Descending the energy emissions curve - Demand
reduction is key
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Current EU energy policy
Reduce waste energy saving in homes -
insulation
90 carbon emission reduction needed URGENTLY!
Reduce demand use energy more carefully, put on
a sweater etc
Reduce waste in generation
Decarbonise renewables. Decentralised best,
but some large scaleneedfor base loads etc
1990 2000 2010
2020
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Waste in current system

• 60-70 of natural gas and coal burnt goes up
  chimney and is loss in transmission.
• Decentralised energy
• Combined heat and power (CHP)
• Single home, city community, industrial area

y94hdk About the WADE economic model
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Decentralised energy
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Can it be done?

• Denmark 50 electricity decentralised
• Holland 40
• 15,000 CHP systems already exist in UK
  hospitals, universities, factories
• BUT need much more UK is near bottom of EU
  table for implementation

yfc4n9 Combined Heat and Power Association
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Big scale renewables

• On shore wind
• 50 increase in 2006 511Mwc.0.5 nuclear power
  station
• Key to Government meeting 2010 renewables target
• Planning system
• delays
• Off shore wind
• Will be big provider
• after 2010

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CSP Concentrated Solar Power
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Microgeneration
PV Panels at Greenhouse, Norwich

• Solar water heating
• Small scale wind
• BEWARE!
• Solar energy
• generation
• photovoltaics (PV)
• Ground source heat pumps
• Biomass CHP
• Problem/challenges - Retrofitting?

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Structural Alternatives

• Localising economies
• de-globalising Food/Agriculture/Production
• Sustainable/affordable housing
• eliminate fuel poverty
• Community Waste Programmes
• Zero Waste
• Ecoliteracy/eco-education
• Appropriate consumption
• Non-violence/conflict resolution
• Restoration projects
• Local renewable energy projects

87fbm Incineration Or Something Sensible
? 8gj8c - Center for Ecoliteracy
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Transition Towns
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CRAGS Carbon Reduction Action Groups
One tonners
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Livestocks long shadow

• Impacts on water, land degradation, climate
  change (18 of emissions)
• Need for 50 less meat and 50 less meat industry
  products
• Meat consumption going up quickly in India and
  China (part of current high food commodity
  prices)
• Need for contraction and convergence of animal
  husbandry?

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JOIN THE BLESSED UNREST
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BLESSED UNREST

• Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a
  blank email to biofuelwatch-subscribe_at_yahoogroups.
  com
• www.biofuelwatch.org.uk
• D8 Climate March, London
• Norwich Climate rally Pottergate on the pathway
  and the green outside St.Gregorys Church, at
  1200 on Saturday 8th December.
• National Week of Local Action on Agrofuels from
  Saturday, 26th January 2008