Today: Uncertainty

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Today Uncertainty Exam 3 F 4/9 (bring cheat
sheet) QA Th 4/8 from 6-8pm in BEL 328
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Animal behavior is unpredictable and inexplicable
Bears (1993) Ian Stirling et al., Weldon Owen Pty
Ltd pg 231
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http//www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ge
tForecast?query78705
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How Many Animals Do We Want to Save? The Many
Ways of Setting Population Target Levels for
Conservation ERIC W. SANDERSON November 2006 /
Vol. 56 No. 11 BioScience 911
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• What are the consequences of setting the wrong
  number?
• Too high
• Too low

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• Can a number of individuals be set?
• Scientists are reluctant to set a specific number
• Policymakers want information from scientists

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Yellowstone NP is not big enough to support a
viable grizzly bear population
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Average height in bio 301M 1pm class vs. 2pm
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Average height of bio 301M 1pm vs. 2pm class
OR... Average height of male vs femalebio 301M
students
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Enhancement of Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Services by Ecological Restoration A
Meta-Analysis J M Rey Benayas, A C Newton, A
Diaz, J M BullockScience 28 August 2009 Vol.
325. no. 5944, pp. 1121 1124 Looked at the
results of 89 different ecological restorations.
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P lt 0.001
P lt 0.05
P lt 0.001
P gt 0.05
(nutrients and primary production)
(goods)
(climate, water, etc)
Fig 1 Enhancement of Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Services by Ecological Restoration A
Meta-Analysis J M Rey Benayas, A C Newton, A
Diaz, J M BullockScience 28 August 2009 Vol.
325. no. 5944, pp. 1121 - 1124
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The P value tells us the probability that the
differences or predictions in our data are from
random chance.
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The P value tells us the probability that the
differences or predictions in our data are from
random chance. Plt 0.05 (less than 5 chance of
randomness) Is usually the acceptable cut-off.
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P lt 0.001
P lt 0.05
P lt 0.001
P gt 0.05
(nutrients and primary production)
(goods)
(climate, water, etc)
Fig 1 Enhancement of Biodiversity and Ecosystem
Services by Ecological Restoration A
Meta-Analysis J M Rey Benayas, A C Newton, A
Diaz, J M BullockScience 28 August 2009 Vol.
325. no. 5944, pp. 1121 - 1124
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We can have uncertainty about past events...or
future events
World Population, human
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36.4
9
2.3
UN Department of Economic and Social
Affairs Population Division (2004)
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Annual increase in global population
Fig 53.23
Predictions are based on current conditions and
trends
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http//www.esr.org/outreach/climate_change/basics/
basics.html
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http//www.esr.org/outreach/climate_change/basics/
basics.html
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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http//www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/bjorn_lomborg_se
ts_global_priorities.html
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Exam 3 F 4/9 (bring cheat sheet) QA Th 4/8 from
6-8pm in BEL 328