???????? ???? ???????? ??? CO2

1
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????? ??????????????????

• ??????? ????????
• ???????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????? ????????????????????
• ????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ? ???????????????????????????
• ????????? ? ??????? ?.?. ????
• ?????????????

2
??????

• ???????? ???? ???????? ??? CO2
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????
• ????????? (Threats)?
• ??????????????????

3
Functions ????????????
Household level

• Food
• Fiber
• Feed
• Fuel
• Housing
• Medicine
• Income

National level

• Exchange
• Secondary industries
• Food security

4
Options ?????????????????????????????

• Intensification
• ag. Technologies.
• Consequences on ecosystems (Soil fertility).
• Extensification Conversion of forest lands
• Finite land resources.
• Consequences on ecosystems.
• Biodiversity decline.

5
?????????????????????????????????????
????????????? ??????????????????????
6
??????????????????????? (kg/ha)
http//www.oae.go.th/oae_report/stat_agri/report_r
esult_content.php
7
??????????????????????? (kg/ha)
CNX Irrigated
THAI
KKC Rainfed
http//www.oae.go.th/oae_report/stat_agri/report_r
esult_content.php
8
??????????????????? (kg/ha)
http//faostat.fao.org/site/567/DesktopDefault.asp
x?PageID567ancor
9
Cumulative rainfall at Chiang Mai airport (mm)
http//203.152.18.171/web/reports/weather_days.asp
10
CO2 ?????????????????????????????????
11
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FileGreenhouse_Gas_b
y_Sector.png
12
Current and cumulative fossil fuel carbon dioxide
emissions
http//www.columbia.edu/mhs119/Storms/
13
?????
14
Trends of climate variables (BAU)
Climate variables 2025 2050 2100
CO2 Conc. 405-460 ppm 445-640 ppm 540-970 ppm
Global mean temperature change from the year 1990 0.4-1.1 oC 0.8-2.6 oC 1.4-5.8 oC
Global mean sea-level rise from the year 1990 3-14 cm 5-32 cm 9-88 cm
15
?????????? ???????? ???CO2 ???????????????????
16
Schematic effect of CO2 concentrations on C3 and
C4 plants
after Wolfe and Erickson, 1993. 
17
????????????????????? CO2 ?????????????????
?????????????????????? (??????????)
??? ppm ???????????????????????????????? ??? ppm
?????? ??
???????? (oC)
Baker and Allen, 1993
18
????????????????????? CO2 ???????????????????
???????????????? (??????????????)
?,???
?,???
?,???
???
???
???
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
?? ?? ??
???????? (oC)
Baker and Allen, 1993
19
Effect of temperature and CO2 on Rice
Bazzaz Sombroek, 1996. 
20
????????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????????????????????????????? ?
  ????????????????????????? (short-term production)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????

?????????????????????????????? (Ecological
sustainability)
21
???????
??????????????? (Arable Land Use)
???? 1950
???? 2004
?.?? ???/??
?.? ???/??
???? 1999
???? 2050
???
6 ???????
9 ???????
???? 2000
???? 2010
???? 2050
ASEAN
635 ??????
522 ??????
799 ??????
???? 2050
???? 2010
???? 2000
???
xxx.x ??????
63.5 ??????
60.9 ??????
22
?????????????????????????????????????????????????

• ?????????/?????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????
• ??????????? ?. ??????????????????????????

???????????????????? ??????????????? ?
??????????????????????????????????????
23
????????
CropDSS ??????????????????????????????????????
DSSAT 4.5 FILE-X OTHER INPUTS
?????????? ???????
?????????????? TH01370001
??????????? 24 ???????
ECHAM4 MRI_CGCM
?????????? ?????
??????? ?????????/????????
24
????????????????? ECHAM4 A2

• ????????????????? ????????????????????????
• ???????????????????? ?????????
• ?????????????????????????

25
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????
26
????????????????????????????????? ?.?. 7
1980 2010 2070
1980 2010 2070
?????? ????????????????
???? ?????????????????
27
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
A2 B2 SRES
28
????????????????????? (??/???) ??????????????????
29
????????????????????? (??/???) ???????????????????
????????????????????
30
????????????????????? (??/???) ???????????????????
???????????????????
31
(No Transcript)
32
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?? A2 B2 SRES
33
????????????????????? (??/???) ????????????? A2
1980-89
??????????????????????????????????????
??????? ????????????????????????????
??????? ????????????
34
????????????????????? (??/???) ????????????? A2
2010-19
??????????????????????????????????????
??????? ????????????????????????????
??????? ????????????
35
???????????????????????? 2 ?????? A2 2010-19
??????????????????????????????????????
?????? 1
?????? 2
????????? 200 ?/???.
?????????? 10 ??./???
36
Climate change Food security
37
Climate Change and Food Security

• Food security?
• Food security happens when all people at all
  times have access to enough food that...
• is affordable, safe and healthy
• is culturally acceptable
• meets specific dietary needs
• is obtained in a dignified manner
• is produced in ways that are environmentally
  sound and socially just

http//www.foodsecuritynews.com/What-is-food-secur
ity.htm
38
IFPRI, 2009. Global Hunger Index The Challenge
of Hunger Focus on financial crisis and gender
inequality.
39
FAOs Food System activitiesProducing food
natural resources, inputs, technology
Processing and packing food raw materials,
standard, storage life Distributing and
retailing food transport, marketing, advertising
Consuming food acquisition, preparation,
socializing
Food system OUTCOMES contributing to

• Social welfare
• Income
• Employment
• Wealth
• Social and political capital
• Human capital

• Environmental security/
• natural capital
• Ecosystems stocks, flow, Ecosystems services
• Access to natural capital

Food security
Access Preference Affordability Allocation
Utilization Food safety Social value Nutritional
values

• Availability
• Exchange
• Distribution
• Production

FAO, 2008. Climate Change and Food Security A
Framework Document.
40
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing food Processing
and packing foodDistributing and retailing
foodConsuming food
Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs
GEC DRIVERS Changes in Land cover Soils,
Atmosphere Composition, Climate variability
means, Water availability quality, Nutrient
availability Cycling, Biodiversity, Sea current
salinity, Sea level.
Natural DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes, Solar cycle
DRIVERS Interactions
Food system OUTCOMES contributing to
Environmental security/ natural capital
Food security
Social welfare
Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in Demographics,
Economics, Socio-Political context, Cultural
Context, Science Technology.
Utilization
Access

• Availability

Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social
cohesion
http//www.gecafs.org/research/food_system.html
41
Food Security main factors include

• Investments in agriculture and rural development
  
• Investments in infrastructure
• Investments in education, technology, science,
  and extension
• Sound land tenure systems and
• A healthy respect for market forces.

GLOBAL FOOD INSECURITY PERSPECTIVES FROM THE
FIELD, 2009
42
S T P, Food Security and Climate Change
Utilization Food safety Social value Nutritional
values
Food system stability
Policy for Food security
Access Preference Affordability Allocation

• Availability
• Exchange
• Distribution
• Production

Technology
Resource Management
Predict Research
Science
Understanding Research
43
?????????
44
?????? 1

• ??????????????????????? (paradigm)
  ???????????????? gtgt ????????????????

???/??? ??./???/?? ??. CO2 /???./??
kWh m-2 yr-1
High
High
?????????????????? ? ????????? (Fossil
fuel-based Agriculture)
??????? (Mixed)
?
Low
Low
45
?????? 2

• ???????????????? ???????????????????? ????????
  ????????????????????????????

??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?? ??????????????????????????????????????
3xx ppm
Unless the public get involved, young people
especially, CO2 of 450 ppm or higher may become
unavoidable.
http//climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2009/1
1/james-hansen-never-give-up-fighting.html
46
?????? 3

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????

1) ????????????????
Climate change
2) ???????????????????????????? ??????????????????
????????????
??????????? ??????????
8) ??????????????????????????????
9) ???????????
???????????????
3) ??????????????????????????????????????????
7) ??????????????
10) ????????????????????????????
Eco-socio-econ-political
??????????????????????????
??????????????
11) ?????????
?????
6) ?????????????????????????????
4) ???????????????????????????
????
5) ????????????? ??????????????????????
Modified from McConnell and Dillon, 1997
47
?????? 4

• ???????????? ?????? ????????? ??????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????

????????? (dBase)
48
?????? 5

• ???????????? ??????? ?????????????????????????????
  ?????????????

Bangkokpost 2010-07-21
http//stormsofmygrandchildren.com/storms_of_my_gr
andchildren.html
Teachers are in a prime position to be able to
weave these basics throughout the curriculum at
every grade level.  http//www.ecoliteracy.org/tea
ch
49
http//www.flickr.com/photos/pierre_pouliquin/3413
534686/
?????????????????????????? ?????????????????????
???????
FS is a multiplier of existing threats to food
security
Terraced rice field and House, China
Rice terrace, Nepal
http//www.flickr.com/photos/rhinosaurus/296828279
9/
http//www.flickr.com/photos/judepics/1614296238/
The Hmong of northern Vietnam is one of the
largest ethnic minority groups in Vietnam, the
Hmong or Meo were a nomadic group who emigrated
from China in the early nineteenth century and
settled in the northern highlands Taken in Tavan
Village which is in a valley 7 Km's from Sapa 
Doi Inthanon, Karen people, Chiang Mai, Thailand
http//www.flickr.com/photos/stubzee/2591854918/
50
???????????????
51
??????????????????????

1. ?????????? ?????????? gtgt ??????????????????? gtgt
   Low carbon and green energy society
2. ????????????????????????????? ????????????????????
   ????????????? ??? ???????????????????????????????
   ?????
3. ???????????????????????????????
   ?????-?????????????????????????????? ????????
   ??????????????????
4. ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
   ???????????????????????????????????
5. ??????? ?????????????????????????????????/???????/
   ??????????????????????? ??????????????????
   ??????????????????

52

• ??????????

???? ?.?. ???? ???? ?.?. 2050, ???????????????????
? 10 ????????? ??? ????????? ?????????????????????
? ???????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????? ???????????????????????????????
??????????????? ??????????????????????????????
(??????????????)