Successful Stock Signals

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Successful Stock Signals

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Introduction

• Presentation of the book Successful Stock
  Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers
• By Tom Lloyd Sr., author
• Articles in MarketWatch.com
• SeekingAlpha.com
• Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities
  Magazine

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Marc Chaikin

• As a strong believer in the importance of
  combining fundamentals with technical analysis, I
  was immediately engaged in this book by Tom
  Lloyd. Successful Stock Signals reads like a
  trading diary written in the moment. WITH ITS
  WEALTH OF CHARTS THE READER SEES A CLEAR CUT PATH
  TO PROFITS. Tom puts you in the drivers seat as
  he analyzes stock after stock with the tools he
  has used successfully in a long Wall Street
  career. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE CONSISTENT PROFITS
  IN THE STOCK MARKET, THIS BOOK IS A MUST READ.

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Jeff Hirsch

• I have been following Tom Lloyds timely signals
  for decades. In this treatise Tom Lloyd pulls
  together a librarys worth of the most effective
  technical analysis tools and MARKET TIMING TRICKS
  OF THE TRADE. TRADE LIKE A PRO WITH TOMS
  SIGNALS PLAYBOOK.

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Chip Anderson

• Successful Stock Signals quickly focuses in on
  the key things technical investors need to
  concentrate on in order to be successfultechnical
  signals that work. UNLIKE MANY OTHER INVESTING
  BOOKS THAT BEAT AROUND THE BUSH, TOM LLOYD GIVES
  YOU GREAT, USABLE ADVICE THAT CAN HELP ANYONE
  FIND GREAT TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN ANY MARKET.

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Topics of Discussion

• Integrating technical analysis with fundamentals
• Use technical analysis as the first step in
  selecting stocks--trading
• Use fundamental analysis as the second
  step--investing
• This approach keeps you in stocks beating the
  Index and having good fundamentals
• Buy Sell Signals illustrated

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Trading

• Successful Signals for Traders
• Candlesticks Hammer and Hanging Man reversal
  signals
• RSI, Relative Strength Index
• MACD, Mac Dee, Moving Average Convergence
  Divergence
• Fast Stochastic
• Support and Resistance

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Investing

• Successful Signals for Portfolio Managers
• 200-day moving average
• Relative Strength vs. Index
• The crosses 50-day X 200-day
• Know Sure Thing
• Chaikin Money Flow
• On-Balance Volume

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Technicals vs. Fundamentals

• Traders use technicals
• Portfolio managers use fundamentals
• Traders look at fundamentals
• Portfolio managers look at technicals

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APPLE CONCLUSIONS

• Excellent example of buy and hold
• Strong 200-day uptrend
• Outperforming the Index
• Every pullback buy on weakness
• Red dots parabolic SAR identifying sellers
  pulling price back to the 200
• Look for change in trend, a change in character.

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INVESTING
BUY HOLD USE 200-DAY MA ALLOW FOR MINOR
VIOLATIONS
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Google Conclusions

• Frequent violation of 200 uptrend
• Good for trading
• Latest trade from 570 to 690
• Starting with Chaikin Money Flow turning green.
• Buy signals from On-Balance Volume, Accumulation
  Distribution and Relative Strength vs Index

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TRADING Google
SELLING
BUYING
BUYING
NICE TRADE FROM 570 TO 690
ON-BALANCE VOLUME
AONACCUMULATION DISTRIBUTION
RRELATIVE STRENGTH
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Successful Signals IBM

• Triple top see (1) on the chart
• Inverted head/shoulders bottom(2)
• Double top (3)
• Break below the 200-day (4)
• V bottom (5)
• Break above the 200-day (6)
• Long-term uptrend confirmed (7)

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Beat the Index

• IBM 50-yr. turtle beating the Index
• HPQ 50-yr hare beating the Index
• IBM better name
• HPQ better performance
• Now does the turtle catch the hare?
• Picking long-term best performers

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HPQ BEATS IBM
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HPQ TROUNCES THE INDEX
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Successful Signals HLF

• Negative divergences to uptrends
• RSI dropping from overbought
• MACD breaks below signal line
• Double top in place before drop
• Aroon drops below the signal line
• Chaikin money flow anemic
• D1 D2 negative crossover
• Signals detected short selling

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Successful Signals FB

• Enormous candlestick sell signal on day one
  (supply)
• Downtrend reversal on point figure chart on day
  one (supply)
• Confirming sell signals on day 2, 3 and 7,
  (supply)
• Predestined to fall because of IPO errors in
  pricing and supply
• The law of supply demand determines price.
  Facebook is the poster child.

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Successful Signals MSFT

• Double top
• W bottom
• Bullish rectangle
• Breakout
• Long-term flat lined chart
• No growth for 10 years
• Can you believe the breakout?

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Shaky Signals LULU

• Long-term, 5-year, 200-day uptrend with
  violations.
• 2- year uptrend with violations
• Uptrend in Relative Strength with violations
• On-balance volume and MFI show weakness
• Chaikin money green 2 years, but sharp drop
  recently.
• Bounces after earnings

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BEFORE EARNINGS
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Successful Signals LULU

• MACD
• Stochastic
• RSI
• Keltner Channels
• Pivot Point
• Parabolic SAR
• Directional Movement D1 D2
• Relative Strength
• MFI
• On-balance volume

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Successful Signals Sell GMCR

• Stochastic sell signal at top
• MACD sell signal at the top
• MFI sell signal at the top
• Keltner sell signal off the top
• Relative Strength sell signal off top
• Candlestick sell signals off the top

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Successful Signals Buy GMCR Bounce

• Stochastic buy signal off bottom
• Parabolic SAR buy signal
• MFI buy signal
• RSI buy signal
• Aroon buy signal
• Relative Strength buy signal
• Directional Movement buy signal

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Successful Signals NFLX Top Bottom

• Chaikin Money Flow, CMF
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence, MACD (Mac
  Dee)
• Percentage Price Oscillator, PPO
• Relative Strength
• OBV, MFI, AD
• 200 day MA

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Successful Signals RIMM, BBRY

• Negative divergences
• Topping signals
• Double bottom
• Dead cat bounce
• Double top
• Lower highs and lower lows
• Breaks bottom

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Successful Buy Signals

• RIMM dead cat bounce 35 to 86
• Stochastic leads at 39
• Candlesticks and gap at 50
• Major gap at 60
• Confirmed by CMF, MACD, Volume, OBV, RSI, D1D2
  and Relative Strength.

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RIMM buy signals for bounce
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Successful Signals PCLN

• Money flow turns negative
• MFI shows selling
• Price breaks below 50 day MA
• MACD shows sellers
• Believing signals before earnings
• Relative Strength shows selling

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PCLN Negative Earnings

• Negative surprise in earnings
• Money flow sell signal was right
• Weakness in other signals correct
• Price drops 101 points
• Relative Strength sell signal appears
• 200-day sell signal
• PPO sell signal confirmed

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Successful Signals LNKD

• Money flow turns positive at 70
• 20-day crosses above 50-day MA
• MACD shows buying
• MFI turns up
• OBV turns up
• AD, Accum/Distr moves up
• Market turns up
• Price moves from 70 to 120

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Successful SignalsLong Term, SBUX

• Monthly chart for long term signals
• Chaikin money flow shows buy and sell signals
• MACD histogram leads money flow
• Double top, Candlestick bottom
• Stochastic leads MACD buy/sell
• RSI confirms the Stochastic
• OBV, RS and D1-D1 buy/sell

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Successful Signals CMG

• MFI sell signal at 442 top
• Money flow sell at 400
• Relative Strength sell at 390
• Fibonacci level at 324 fails
• OBV rolls over and down at 300
• Major sell signal 400 to 325
• Elliott 5th wave to 233

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Successful Signals GS

• Long-term downtrend signals
• RSI and MFI sell the top at 239
• Stochastic confirms RSI and MFI
• OBV identifies the top
• Same signals identify the bottom
• Resumption of downtrend after dead cat bounce
  from 46 to 180

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Successful SignalsGS buy signals

• Bouncing up from 90 bottom
• Chaikin money flow turns green
• Continuous MACD buy cycles
• Keltner channel turns up
• Relative Strength turns up
• Move up hits resistance at 126
• Blue arrows show latest bounce up

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Successful Signals CRM

• Price violates 200-day
• 50-day MA comes down to 200
• Price recovers above 200-day MA
• 50-day bounces up from 200
• Money flow turns green before eps
• After eps big white candle closes at 148.54 up
  1.77

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Successful SignalsTrading CRM

• Do you buy on the open?
• Opens at 148
• MACD, RSI, Stochastic buy signals
• Parabolic SAR buy signal
• 50-min and 200-min uptrends
• Price running along the top of the upward
  Bollinger Band

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DAY TRADINGSALESFORCE.COMMONDAY, 8/27/12buy
148, sell 152
Buy bottom, sell top
Buy bottom,
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Successful Signals HD

• Breakout buy from 38 to 65
• Candlestick signals lead
• Relative Strength leads
• D1-D1 Directional leads
• Volume/price breakout at 40
• Golden cross 50-day X 200-day
• OBV and ADX confirm
• Signals remain positive to 65

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Successful SignalsTAFundamentals

• First step find a good chart
• Second step find good fundamentals
• SP chart combines both TA and fundamentals
• Home Depot chart shows earnings, analyst target,
  star rating plus TA signals Rel.Strength, Moving
  Avg.

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Successful Signals WMT

• Breakout at 55 runs up to 78
• Pre-breakout signals RSI, Candlesticks, Relative
  Strength, price gap, D1-D1 Direction, and PPO
• Concurrent signals Chaikin money flow, change in
  trend and ADX
• TA Fundamentals agree

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Successful SignalsShort squeeze

• GMCR positive surprise creates short squeeze
• Day trading the bounce up from the bottom
• Big gap up no retracement very bullish
• Day trading the pullback in Stochastic and MACD

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Gap up from bottom starts squeeze
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Successful Signals SPY

• Long-term market signals 20 years
• SPY surrogate for SP 500
• 5 Elliott waves to double top in 2000 at 124.55
  or near 1246 SP
• 5 Elliott wave to head shoulders top in 2007 at
  141.53 near 1415
• Currently in the 5th Elliott wave at 150 or near
  1500

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Successful Signals SPY

• Long-term 10-year signals
• Sell signals in 2008 crash
• Buy signals in 2009 Fed rescue
• OBV buy signal at bottom at 75
• RSI and Stochastic buy at 80
• MACD buy at 100
• Money flow buy at 100

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Successful Signals SPY

• Weekly chart buy/sell signals
• Buy test of 200-day uptrend
• Sell the RSI and Stochastic overbought signals
• 200 and 50-day uptrend
• Latest Stochastic buy signal
• Not yet confirmed by MACD buy signal

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Successful Signals SPY

• Short term triple top
• All signals turn negative
• Start of short term selling cycle
• MACD, Stochastic RSI and Know Sure Thing are
  leading signals to drop in price
• Buy signals on the bounce back up

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Successful Signals SPYDay Trading

• A) lead to MACD buy signal
• B) RSI leads the MACD buy
• C) Stochastic leads the MACD buy
• D E) Candlestick lead to MACD
• E,F,G,H I Leading indicators
• J) Lagging indicator (valuable too)
• Sell signals just the reverse

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Successful Signals Summary

• Charts are 100 accurate in signaling changes in
  supply and demand.
• No one should be surprised where price is going,
  signals tell you that.
• Fundamentals are only one factor creating supply
  and demand
• For traders,signals of supply/demand are more
  important than fundamentals
• For portfolio managers fundamentals are the
  factor for determining price targets.

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Conclusions

• For traders, use leading indicators to identify
  supply and demand ahead of the crowd and high
  frequency traders.
• For portfolio managers use leading indicators of
  Relative Strength so stocks outperform the
  benchmarks.
• Use TA and then Fundamentals
• Pick good charts check for good fundamentals.
  Avoids value traps.
• Keeps portfolio in outperforming stocks.