Advancing

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Advancing

• David Levinson

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Logistic Growth Curves

• Evidence Suggests Technologies follow an S-Shaped
  growth pattern
• Look Backward to Look Forward

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UK Canals 1750
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UK Canals 1850
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UK Canals 1950
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US Canals
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UK Turnpikes
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US Turnpikes 1790-1850
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UK Railroad Route Miles 1825-1920
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UK Merchant Fleet Sail vs. Steam
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US Telegraph Messengers 1870 - 1950
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UK Transatlantic Liner Times
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US Railroads 1900-1950
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Iowa Railroad Route Abandonments
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US Rail Trends 1960-1998
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UK Rail Passengers 1919-2000
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US Telegraph Miles 1846-1850
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US Telephones 1880-1920
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US Toll Roads 1940-1990
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US Transit Ridership Trends
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US Miles of Road Vehicles
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US Enplanements
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CO2 Mauna Loa 1958 -2002
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US Energy Consumption 1635- 2000
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Development vs. Energy
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US Energy Use 1950 - 2000 By Sector
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Ramp Meters
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Global Internet Host Computers 1969-2001
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Global Internet Host Computers 1969 - 1981
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The Magic Bullet?
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The Future of Coal
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The Future of Oil
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S-Curve Some Implications
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The Future of Plexus Place

• So Where are we going?
• What is mature, what is nascent?
• Of the many birthing technologies, where should
  we invest?
• Of the new ideas in land use, what how do we pick
  the winners?
• Should we simply take the easy path of managing
  the existing system, or the hard path of forging
  a new one.
• Energy, Environment, Telecommunications,
  Technologies?

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Any Answers?
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Afterpiece

• David Levinson Kevin Krizek

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Agents

• Individuals
• Developers
• Firms (Locators) Commercial, Retail, Industrial,
  Other
• Governments
• Professionals (i.e. YOU).

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Diamond Of Action

• Choices - What I want
• Chances - What opportunities I have
• Constraints - What limits I have
• Complementors Competitors - What others do
  (creating Choices and Constraints)

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Processes

• Accessibility
• Arranging
• Associating
• Aversion
• Arms Races

• Architecture
• Administering
• Allocating
• Assembly
• Advancing

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Outcomes

• Efficiency
• Equity
• Environment
• Experience

• Expediency

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1. World is Getting Better

• Yes there are problems,
• But show todays world from someone in 1904 and
  ask which they would prefer.
• More living space, more choices, shorter work
  hours, longer healthier lives, less environmental
  pollution (no coal, no horses)

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2. Present Policies Are Largely Futile

• The serious attempts of the past 3 decades
  (post-interstate era) are at best marginal
  improvements to a mature system.
• Traditional TDM, TSM, ITS, remove a bottleneck
  here or there, are not necessarily bad things,
  but they wont address major issues increasing
  accessibility, increasing the speed of
  transportation

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3. We Must Pursue Non-Marginal Policies

• Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir
  men's blood and probably themselves will not be
  realized. Make big plans aim high in hope and
  work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram
  once recorded will never die, but long after we
  are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself
  with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our
  sons and grandsons are going to do things that
  would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and
  your beacon beauty. Think big.

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A. First Do No Harm

• Policy Process recommendation
• Much harm is done by policy
• Urban renewal policies
• Parking policies
• Zoning policies
• As doctors of urbanism, we must first do no harm,
  and remove the harms we create.

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B. Let A Thousand Flowers Bloom, But Cull the
Lagards

• Policy Process recommendation
• (1) Policy experiments are great, but the tend to
  always be declared successes and be
  institutionalized
• (2) Hard choices (abandoning someone's pet
  project) must be made if progress is to occur
• (3) Rigorous benefit cost analysis, that includes
  both the real benefits and the full costs must be
  applied (e.g., if a project is aimed at improving
  efficiency, it must pass this test. If it is
  simply to improve equity, the cost of equity
  should be known and compared with alternatives
  aimed at the same level of equity).

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C. Smart Prices/ Dumb Growth

• Improve efficiency, equity, environment
• (1) price major roads (electronic tolls)
• (2) price new, untollable infrastructure (impact
  fees)
• (3) if the right incentives are in place,
  consumers, travelers, and developers will
  voluntarily do what is in their interest and
  societys interest

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D. Smart Cars/Dumb Roads

• Improve Efficiency, Equity, Experience,
  Environment
• (1) Cars are more fuel efficient than they used
  to be (and could even be more so)
• (2) Cars are cleaner than they used to be (and
  could even be more so)
• (3) Cars are safer than they used to be (and
  could even be more so).
• (3) Fuel cells and related technologies
  significantly help problems with air pollution
• (4) Deployment strategy of new technology must be
  doable, placing intelligence in vehicle is
  sounder than placing intelligence in
  infrastructure or requiring compatibility of both
• (5) Deployment of new technologies requires a
  realistic path from the present.
• (6) Smart Cars can provide freedom of mobility to
  the transprotation disadvantaged

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E. Rethink the Hierarchy of Plexus of Place

• Improve Efficiency, Experience
• The undifferentiated grid has problem, which led
  to the standard suburban guidelines of the post
  World War II period.
• The guidelines of the post WWII era have
  problems, in that the networks are less robust,
  by achieving economies of scale on average
  (channeling traffic) but providing fewer
  alternative paths.
• Something new is required, something not simply
  new urbanism which places form above function.

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F. Support the Next Long Wave in Transportation

• Improve Efficiency.
• We are operating in a mature system era
  (interstates, transit), and seek new solutions in
  the past (streetcars) rather than the future.
• It is not clear what form the new wave will be
• It will not be classic public transit (which is
  appropriate only in a small set of places).
• It will in some fashion incorporate information
  and communications technologies.
• It will emerge from the bottom-up, not the
  top-down.
• People want to go when and where at will. The
  want to remove constraints on action.
• This choice will be accomodated.

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The End
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Summary
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