The Future of Transportation:

1
The Future of Transportation  What have we been
doing? Where should we be going?

• Lisa Aultman-Hall, Professor and Director
• Transportation Research Center
• School of Engineering
• University of Vermont

2
What have we been doing?

• Building roads and bridges, and transit systems,
  and bike paths etc
• Managing operations to minimize congestion
• Ensuring safety
• Some environmental mitigation

3
What should we be doing?

• Mobility AND accessibility
• Efficiency -- energy and costs
• Connecting land use and transportation
• Designing demand instead of responding to it
• Creating a robust and diverse system

4

1. The Transportation Research Center
2. How did we get to this Transportation System?
3. What does the future look like?

5
What does the future look like?

• Policy
• Change in performance metrics (VMT and speed)
• Public good versus market commodity and
  appropriate private sector role
• Dedicated funding versus general funds
• Continued devolution from federal to local/state
• Re-invention of the federal role what is the
  national transportation system?

6
What does the future look like?

• Urban areas
• Land use change (partially due to demographics)
• Active transportation including new vehicles
• Transit
• Road pricing
• Carshare
• EVs

7
What does the future look like?

• Intercity
• Less air travel (likely biofuel based)
• More trains
• A smaller variation on trains for mass transit
  that is electrically powered (gondolas some say)
• Technology for effective ride sharing

8
What does the future look like?

• Rural Areas
• Traditional transit not feasible
• Older and poorer population
• Longer distance to services energy costs
• Biking and walking have limited potential
• Growth is slow, so land use change is slow
• States without a large congested metropolitan
  area have few options for revenue

9
What does the future look like?

• Rural Areas
• Telecommunications is critical to the mobility
  system
• Mobility hubs
• Strategic disinvestment
• Innovative demand responsive transit (taxi-like
  or jitneys)
• PHEVs and eventually EVs
• Technology for ride sharing
• Employer-based programs
• Is there a role for pack animals?
• More expensive and lower levels of service

10
What does the future look like?

• Questions for Vermont
• How will we use Quebec as our gateway to the
  world?
• Will the rail connection between Montreal and
  Boston/NYC go thru Vermont?
• How will tourism change as transportation energy
  costs rise?
• Will transportation system change facilitate
  sustainable agricultural development?
• Will our strong village centers give us an
  advantage over other rural areas?
• Will water transportation become viable?
• How will we raise revenue given our current
  dependence on federal funds?