Failure to Complete College: Implications for California

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Failure to Complete CollegeImplications for
Californias GrimEconomic Future

• Michael W. Kirst
• Professor Emeritus
• Stanford School of Education

2

• Californias postsecondary attainment and
  economic base projected to decline.
• Community college lack of completion is crucial
  enroll 64 of total postsecondary.
• Community college completion 10 two year, 26
  transfer (overall 27 including certificates)
  PPIC, Sacramento State).
• Latino and central valley college education gap
  must be closed.

3

• K-12 public schools are 49 Latino and growing
  79 of Latinos who attend postsecondary are at
  community colleges.
• Community colleges must move from just access and
  low cost to improved pupil outcomes. Student
  Churn Economic Model
• Community college remediation rates about 70
  from high school (Chancellor says 90 math, 75
  English overall)
• California 4 year universities degree completion
  at or above national average.

4

• L.A. Community Colleges have 4 times African
  American and 3 times Latino students as U.C.
  system combined.

Funding per student 2005 (state general fund,
property tax, student fees)
UC 19,883
CSU 10,623
National CCC 8,500 (est.)
K-12 7,023
CCC 4,559
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College Participation by Race/Ethnicity
Racial/Ethnic Group Percent of 18-24 Year Olds in College Percent of Adults Ages 25 in College
Asian / Pacific Islander 60 9.1
White 43 5.8
Black 32 8.8
Latino 22 5.4
Source US Census 2000, Summary File 4, Table
PCT63
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Race/Ethnic Gaps in Educational Attainment Bode
Poorly for Californias Workforce
Percent of Adults Ages 25 to 64 With an
Associates Degree or Higher
Projected Change in the Number of 25 to 64 Year
Olds from 2000 to 2020
Whites
Whites
40.2
-1,309,049
African-Americans
African-Americans
27.4
414,406
Hispanics, Latinos
Hispanics, Latinos
12.4
4,574,193
Native Americans
Native Americans
19.3
226,439
Asians, Pac. Is.
Asians, Pac. Is.
1,081,504
52.9
0
-2,000,000
5,000,000
0
60
30
California State University, Sacramento, 2006
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Racial/Ethnic Gaps in Preparation
8
Regional Gaps in Preparation
California State University, Sacramento, 2006
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Californias Per Capita Income will Fall Below
U.S. Average if Race/Ethnic Education Gaps
Remain
California State University, Sacramento, 2006
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Completion of Degrees/Certificates

• Rank 11th on 6-year graduation rate of full-time
  freshmen at universities
• Does not include part-time students, or students
  who begin in community college
• Rank 47th in the number of BA degrees per 100
  undergraduates enrolled
• Rank 46th in degrees/certificates awarded per 100
  students enrolled in 2-year colleges

California State University, Sacramento, 2006
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Participation in College

• Among top states in of population enrolled
• Traditional college-age 18 to 24
• Working adults 25-64
• Very low rates of patterns that lead to
  completion
• 40th in high school grads direct to college
• 48th in share of students enrolled full-time
• Huge gaps in college participation

California State University, Sacramento, 2006
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Selected Quotes

• The one thing its the good thing about
  community college, I would say is that a
  student can come here with absolutely no
  forethought, you know?
• college advisor
• This is the thing. Ive always done well in
  grammar, and Ive always done well in English. I
  got As throughout high school, and I was placed
  in the lowest English in the community
  college.
• community college student

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Findings

• Current State Policies Perpetuate Disjuncture
  between K-12 and Postsecondary Education
• Multiple and confusing assessments
• Disconnected curricula
• Lack of connected, longitudinal, data
• Few K-16 accountability mechanisms
• Insufficient K-16 governance mechanisms.

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Findings

• Student, Parent, and K-12 Educator Understandings
  about College Preparation
• Students college knowledge is vague and varies
  by student group
• Teachers college knowledge is incomplete and
  they play a major role
• College resources and connections with colleges
  are inadequate
• College preparatory opportunities are
  inequitable and,
• There is a lack of college counseling for all
  students.

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Policy Implications for Community Colleges

• Track signals to high school students regarding
  college expectations and requirements
• Track more carefully the signals students receive
  concerning placement
• Send clearer signals about realistic transfer
  possibilities

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Policy Implications for Community Colleges

• Create initiatives to overcome the lack of high
  school academic preparation
• Review the K-12 standards and assessments
• Consider CSU augmented CST test
• Collect more data on specific populations as they
  move in and through colleges

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Policy Implications for Community Colleges

• Link junior/senior year of high school to initial
  year of college
• Expand dual enrollment to include more
  prospective community college students
• Create a continuous policy-making apparatus for
  K-16