Growing Preferences For Higher Density Residential Environments

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Growing Preferences For Higher Density
Residential Environments
the boom ahead
DOWELL MYERS School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD

• RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY THE FUNDERS NETWORK FOR
  SMART GROWTH AND LIVABILITY

Contributing researchers Elizabeth Gearin Ajay
Garde Tridib Banerjee Dowell Myers
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Boom in Higher Density Preference?
Many trends support expanded preferencesin
future for more central, urban residence Current
preference for compact residential choices rises
sharply with age The Baby Boom generation is
crossing age 45 and dominates growth in other age
groups
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Conventional Beliefs of Housing Preferences
American housing consumers favor a housing
product that satisfies five major criteria
suburban fringe location single-family detached
unit stylelocation within a low-density
neighborhood ease of automobile use, including
driving and parkingand lowest cost given these
criteria
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
really?
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
General Trends Toward More Compact Residential
Preferences
Mounting Traffic Congestion   Decreased
Crime Rising Immigration and Enhanced Urban
Vitality Growth of Café Culture Fashionable
Design of Higher-Density for the Middle
Class Positive Examples Created by Growing
Densification
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
How to Measure Current Preferences for More
Compact Residence?
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
California Housing Preferences, 2001
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
Source PPIC Special Survey on Land Use Issues,
October 2001
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
The NAHB Trade-Off Question
Consider the following hypothetical choice Your
income is high enough to purchase a 150,000
home. You have two options
buying a 150,000 townhouse in an urban
settingclose to public transportation, work and
shopping. Or, you could purchase a larger,
detached single-family home in a suburban area,
with longer commutes to work.
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the City
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying
a Home Today
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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Growth in Mover HouseholdsWho Own After Move,
1990-2010
HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
bottom line
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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Combining These Factors
HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Current Preferences by AgexAging Baby
Boomers Conservative Estimate of New Demand
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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And if Current Preferences Expand
HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
General TrendxCurrent Preference by AgexAging
Baby Boomers Expanded Estimate of New Demand
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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Annual Growth in Active Mover Home Buyers
HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
Minority Dictatorship of New Construction
Everyone else living in existing housing
Households who dictate new construction
Dowell Myers USC School of Policy, Planning, and
Development
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HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES
THE BOOM AHEAD
For more information .... Forthcoming
article "Current Preferences and Future Demand
for Denser Residential Environments," Housing
Policy Debate Fall 2001 (Dowell Myers and
Elizabeth Gearin)
Dowell Myers web site http//www-rcf.usc.edu/dow
ell/