Growing Consumer Preferences for Density

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Growing Consumer Preferences for Density
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Growing Preferences for Higher Density
Residential Environments the boom ahead
Dowell Myers, USC Master of Planning Program
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Conventional beliefs about housing preferences
claim that Americans have an overwhelming desire
for low density, suburban single family houses.
Closer examination shows a lot of ambivalence and
greater diversity of opinion.
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A number of general trends support residential
preferences for living in denser, more central
locations, including mounting traffic congestion,
much lower crime than in previous decades, the
growth of café culture, and the emergence of
attractively designed housing environments of
higher density.
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One key indicator of current preferences for
more compact living is a survey question asking
for a trade-off choice between a centrally
located townhome or a larger detached single
family home with a longer commute to work.
Whereas 87 of respondents preferred the suburban
single family home, that was true of only 9 of
young adults and 24 of adults over 55.
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The massive baby boom generation is moving from
young adult years into their 40s and 50s. This
group dominates the growth registered in all
other age segments. Developers will want to cater
to their preferences, especially since they have
the financial means to act on those desires.
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The net result is that adults over age 45 who
have a desire for more compact living (as
measured by the townhouse question) will increase
their share of the growth in home buyers from 15
in the 1990s to 30 in the 2000s. If the general
trends cited under Point 2 are factored into
future preferences, the share of growth captured
by this group could expand to over 50. In
either case, this is a dramatic swing underway in
market preferences for denser housing.
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It bears mentioning that American cities are
built on the preferences of a tiny minority each
year. Developers build for 1-2 of the households
who want to live in new structures. The surge in
baby boomers advancing past age 45 could well
dictate future construction and the future form
of the evolving city.
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Visualizing Density

• Julie Campoli, Terra Firma Urban Design
• Alex MacLean, Landslides Aerial Photography

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• In the debate over the density of future
  development, visual tools are needed to bridge
  the gap between measured density and perceived
  density.
• A visual catalog illustrating various density
  levels can help the public translate density
  numbers into mental images and show how site
  design affects the look and feel of density
• There are several challenges to visually
  representing density through aerial photography.
  A combination of vertical, oblique, close-up, and
  context views can create a visual portrait of a
  place.

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• US census data can be used to calculate dwelling
  units per acre for a range of sites across the
  country.
• There are several design approaches possible for
  each density level. Showing examples will help
  the public draw its own conclusions about how to
  achieve a desired density.

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Question In the 1980s, South Orange County
experienced a huge building boom. Approximately
half the units built were attached. Hence this
community inherited not just single-family homes.
Further, in some parts of Orange County and
other parts of Southern California, more accurate
building to market may not decrease the amount of
land used, since some areas have already been
built to higher densities.

• It is true that many California cities have been
  built to higher densities than many cities
  elsewhere in the United States, such as on the
  East Coast. And it is difficult to measure the
  preferences for high-density preference for
  townhome was used as one social indicator of this
  preference. More importantly, preference for
  density varies with point in life cycle. If the
  Orange County townhomes are not close to transit
  and housing (part of the preference package),
  those townhome residents could have the worst of
  all worlds.

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Question How do we address citizen fears of
higher density, based on natural or other
disasters, such as the terrorist attacks on NYC?

• Research shows that residents in earthquake-prone
  areas, at least, recover from their fears
  relatively quickly (6 months). The terrorist
  attacks hopefully represent an isolated incident.