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????????? (social factor) ????????????????

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Karl Popper (1961) The Poverty of Historicism 27 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: ????????? (social factor) ????????????????


1
? ? ? ?
  • ????????????
  • ??? ???
  • ???? ?????

2
????????????
  • ??? ??(???????)
  • ??? ?????????
  • ??? ???????????????
  • -???1998-2007???
  • ??? ?????????????????
  • -???1989-2003???
  • ??? ??????????
  • -???1998-2008???
  • ??? ??

3
??? ??(???????)
  • ????????????????????????????????
  • ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  • ???20??60????????????????????????????
  • ????????????????? ?

4
??? ?????????
  • ????????? (social factor) ????????????????
  • Berkman, et al. (2000) ????????,???? (macro)???
    (mezzo) ??? (micro) ???? (multiple level)
    ????????????????????????
  • ????2-1?2-2???????????????

5
????-??? (multiple level) ??
  • ?????????????,????????????????????
  • ????????(mezzo)?????????????????????????????????
    (psychological mechanisms) ?????
    (micro),?????????????
  • ?????? (downstream) ??????????????????????????????
    ???????????????(self esteem)??? ???
    (distress)?????(sense of well being)?

6
????-????????????
  • Kawachi, et al. (1997)
  • ?????????,???????????,??????????????,???????????
  • ??????????????????????????????????????????
  • ??????,???????????????,???????? (spillover
    effects) ???????????,???????

7
????-??????????????
  • Marmot (2005) ??????????,???????????,???????????,
    ???????????????,??????????????????????????????
    ???????????????????
  • ????????????????????????
  • ??????? (status syndrome) ????????????????????????
    ?,????????????????,?????????????
  • Karasek ??Job Demand-Control Model???????????,????
    ????????

8
???????????
  • ???????? (panel data regression
    models)-?????????????????????????????????????
  • Mixed mode ?????????????(longitudinal
    data),?????? (repeat measurement data )
    ?????????????????????????????????

9
?????????????????? -???1998-2007???
  • ?????21??????? (panel data) ??1998?2007?????????,?
    ????????????????????????????,?????????????????????
    ?????????
  • ??????????????????????????,???????????????????????
    ??,????????????????????????????15?????????????????
    ????????????????????

10
?????????????????? -???1998-2007??? (cont.)
  • ??????????????? (panel data unit root test)
    ???Hausman test?????????? (fixed effects model)?
  • ?????????????????????????????????????????????????,
    ????????????????,2004??????????
  • ??,15???????????????????????????????

11
?????????????????? -???1998-2007??? (cont.)
  • ?3-1???????????????

12
??? ?????????????????-???1989-2003???
  • ????????????????,?????????????????,???????????????
    ??
  • ??????????1989-2003???????????????????????????????
    ???????????????????16,595??,??????????,???????????
    ?????????

13
??? ?????????????????-???1989-2003??? (cont.)
  • ?????????????????Yang (2007) ???????????? (North
    Carolina Established Populations for
    Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, EPESE)
    ??????,?????20???????????????,????????????????????
    ???????????,????????,?????????,???????????????????
    ?????????????3???,?????????(1929????)???????(1929-
    1946???)????????????????(1946-1953?)??????????????
    ???,?????????

14
??? ?????????????????-???1989-2003??? (cont.)
  • ????????????????,????2??????????????,??75.25?????
    ????????
  • ??????,???????????????????????????????????????????
    ????
  • ????????????,???????????????????
  • ?????????????,?????-0.01188,??????????

15
??? ???????-???1998-2008???
  • ????????1971-2008????????1998-2008????????,???????
    ?????????
  • ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
    ????????????????????Durkheim ???????????????????

16
??? ??????????-??? 1998-2006 ??? (cont.)
?5-1 ??1971?2008????
17
??? ??????????-??? 1998-2006 ??? (cont.)
  • ????82,781??????????????
  • 1993?????????????
  • ????,5???????????,????????1????????,??????,???????
    ???
  • ???? Partonen et al. (2004)??????????????????????
    ???????????????????????????????????????????

?6-2????????
18
?5-2????????
19
??? ??????????-??? 1998-2006 ??? (cont.)
  • ??????????????(anomic suicide)
  • ??????????????????
  • ???????????????????????????????? ?
  • ??????????? ???
  • ????

20
??
  • Karl Popper (1961) ?The Poverty of Historicism
    ?27??????????????????????? (law of motion of
    society),???????????????
  • ??????????????????? (law)????,??????,?? (trend)
    ?????
  • ??????????????? ??????????????????????????????????
    ???????????

21
????????????
  • ???? ????
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