MISTAKES VS. UNEXPECTED OUTCOME

1
MISTAKES VS. UNEXPECTED OUTCOME

• One of the biggest confusion arises when one
  doesnt see the peculiarity of the situation that
  occurs and approaches it probabilistically. That
  is he takes a new situation for something which
  seems similar to him. This way he ignores some
  details which seem unimportant to him. As a
  result, he faces unexpected outcome.

2
MISTAKES VS. UNEXPECTED OUTCOME

• A much more challenging problem arises when there
  are no statistics, stochastic programming or
  sequential analysis to generate probabilities,
  considering especially that sequential analysis
  starts with some a priori probability
  distribution and may take an incredible amount of
  time or resources to produce an optimal solution.
  Additionally, there may be unique situations that
  by definition preclude any reliance on frequency
  of events whatsoever.

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MISTAKES VS. UNEXPECTED OUTCOME

• In this case, rather than observe a highly
  uncertain behavior of individual objects, we look
  at the behavior of the total ensemble formed by
  these objects, since the latter, generally
  speaking, are more amenable to statistical
  patterns in other words, we reduce a unique
  situation to some previously known one by
  stripping the former of its specific unique
  features. This, however, is a pretty risky
  procedure since the specific features of a unique
  event could be quite significant, and eliminating
  them might result in a drastically distorted
  estimate of the likelihood of the situation
  occurring. (Concept of Indeterminism 2728)

4
LORENZ

• One of the most important discoveries was made in
  1963, by the meteorologist Edward Lorenz, who
  wrote a basic mathematical software program to
  study a simplified model of the weather.
  Specifically Lorenz studied a primitive model of
  how an air current would rise and fall while
  being heated by the sun. Lorenz's computer code
  contained the mathematical equations which
  governed the flow the air currents. Since
  computer code is truly deterministic, Lorentz
  expected that by inputing the same initial
  values, he would get exactly the same result when
  he ran the program. Lorenz was surprised to find,
  however, that when he input what he believed were
  the same initial values, he got a drastically
  different result each time.

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LORENZ

• By examining more closely, he realized that he
  was not actually inputing the same initial values
  each time, but ones which were slightly different
  from each other. He did not notice the initial
  values for each run were different because the
  difference was incredibly small, so small as to
  be considered microscopic and insignificant by
  usual standards. The mathematics inside Lorenz's
  model of atmospheric currents was widely studied
  in the 1970's. Gradually it came to be known that
  even the smallest imaginable discrepancy between
  two sets of initial conditions would always
  result in a huge discrepancy at later or earlier
  times, the hallmark of a chaotic system, of
  course.

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MISTAKES VS. UNEXPECTED OUTCOME

• A mistake presumes that there were rules which,
  for some reason, were neglected or forgotten by
  one.
• An unexpected outcome means that there was no
  method or rule for determining the best course of
  action.

7
THE GIFTS OF THE MAGI

• The magi, as you know, were wise
  men--wonderfully wise men--who brought gifts to
  the Babe in the manger. They invented the art of
  giving Christmas presents. Being wise, their
  gifts were no doubt wise ones, possibly bearing
  the privilege of exchange in case of duplication.
  And here I have lamely related to you the
  uneventful chronicle of two foolish children in a
  flat who most unwisely sacrificed for each other
  the greatest treasures of their house. But in a
  last word to the wise of these days let it be
  said that of all who give gifts these two were
  the wisest. Of all who give and receive gifts,
  such as they are wisest. Everywhere they are
  wisest. They are the magi.

8
Positional Combinational Sacrifice
9
The Last Leaf Thinking in probabilities

• Behrman was a failure in art. Forty years he had
  wielded the brush without getting near enough to
  touch the hem of his Mistress robe. He had been
  always about to paint a masterpiece, but had
  never yet begun it. For several years he had
  painted nothing except now and then a daub in the
  line of commerce or advertising. He earned a
  little by serving as a model to those young
  artists in the colony who could not pay the price
  of a professional.

10
The Last Leaf Thinking in probabilities

• Old Behrman was a painter who lived on the ground
  floor beneath them. He was past sixty and had a
  Michelangelos Moses beard curling down from the
  head of a satyr along the body of an imp.

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CONDITIONAL/UNCONDITIONAL VALUES IN LITERATURE

• A literary character can be analyzed from two
  different perspectives from the point of view of
  his conditional importance (revealed through
  aspects of his everyday life, such as his status
  in society, his current position, and his
  relationships with friends and family) and his
  unconditional weight (appearing as a result of
  his interactions with the universe in the
  capacity of demiurge).

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CONDITIONAL/UNCONDITIONAL VALUES IN LITERATURE

• The conditional evaluation of a character is
  based on his function in particular episodes.
  Conditional valuations of characters are revealed
  through the analysis of characters current
  achievements, their relationships with others,
  their present status in society, and the like.

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CONDITIONAL/UNCONDITIONAL VALUES IN LITERATURE

• Names and or characters appearances often take
  the place of their unconditional valuations. The
  symbolism of names and/or appearances conveys a
  notion of the characters influence on the
  development of their universe, their ability to
  leave a trace in the memory of society.

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CONDITIONAL/UNCONDITIONAL VALUES IN LITERATURE

• The integration of these two types of evaluation
  gives a richer understanding of the characters
  predisposition, which cannot be exhausted by
  examining his momentary advantages or
  disadvantages.

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CONDITIONAL/UNCONDITIONAL VALUES IN LITERATURE

• To integrate conditional and unconditional
  valuations of the character, one must compare all
  particular information with the unconditional
  weight of the character. The integration requires
  the ascription of weights, not the establishment
  of the average of given characteristics.

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The Last Leaf conditional evaluation

• He drank gin to excess, and still talked of his
  coming masterpiece.
• For the rest he was a fierce little old man, who
  scoffed terribly at softness in anyone
• and who regarded himself as especial
  mastiff-in-waiting to protect the two young
  artists in the studio above.

17
The Last Leaf unconditional evaluation

• Moses and satyr
• Moses and imp

18
The Last Leaf the metaphor for Satyr

• Satyr
• Satyrs belong to Dionysuss retinue. Dionysus is
  a god of wine and agriculture.
• Dionysus is a dying-reviving god.
• Bear-Dionysus. Dionysus, was transformed into a
  bear.
• Satyrs spent time on drinking, dancing, and
  chasing nymphs.

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MOSES-SATYR
20
The Implied Space

• Unlike the space of action (such as Verona in
  Romeo and Juliet, or Sorins estate in The
  Seagull) which is determined by the artist, the
  implied space is created by the interpreter
  through various metaphors. Using different styles
  and methods, the interpreter establishes
  efficient and semiefficient linkages between
  artistic and nonartistic structures as a result,
  new objects appear to form an implied space.