Iraq: Who

1
Iraq Whos Who?

• 3 main groups
• 1. Sunni Muslim17, center-west north (Arab
  Saddams group),
• 2. Shia Muslim- 60 center-south (Arab, Repressed
  by Saddam),
• 3. Kurd 17 Far North (non-Arab, Repressed by
  Saddam)
• 2 Others (2-3 of pop.) Turkmen conflict with
  Kurds Christian
• Iraq govt.-- Shia-led Kurd support, Sunni
  ambivalent / hostile
• Security Forces Milt. Shia Kurd dominated,
  some Sunni. Getting stronger.
• Private Militas -2 rival Shia (ISCI-Badr VS.
  Sadr) Kurdish Pesh Merga, Sunni Sons of Iraq
  (ex-insurgents)
• Al Qaida sunni, very small, mainly foreign,
  weak
• Iraq Conflcits.
• Violence down 77 in 2008, but hundreds of
  thousands dead 2.5 MN displcd
• Sunni-Shia Conflict (esp. 2005-2007), ethnic
  Cleansing Baghdad
• Intra-Shia Conflict (Sadr vs. ISCI/Badr)
• Shiite Federation in South (oil) ? ISCI wants
  to form, Sadr no
• Kurd-Turk conflict Kurdish Autonomous Zone in
  North (oil),

2
Multiple, Complex Conflicts (Sunni-US,
Sunni-Sunni, ShiiteSunni, Shiite-Shiite, some
Shiite-US, Kurd-Turk, Iran Sunni, IranUS,
etc.)Very, very difficult to manage for US
govt. milt. troops

• Pre-07-- Insurgency (Sunni nationalist) Al
  Qaeda in Iraq (Foreign local relig. extremists
  Sunni) VS. US, Shiites, Kurds, Iraqi govt.
• 2007-08 Intra-Sunni fight -- Sunni insurgency
  VS. Al Qaeda in Iraq ( vs. Shiites) US
  supports Sunni Awakening Council Militias
  millions.
• 2008-- Intra-Shiite Conflict ISCI (Badr)
  Dawa Vs. Sadr (Mahdi Army)
• -- 2004 2008 Mahdi Army (Sadr) vs. US
• -- 2004-2006 --Mahdi Army vs. Sunnis (Bahgdad),
  2007--08 Truce
• -- Kurds Vs. Turkmen Arabs ( Turkey?) in
  north (Kirkuk)
• -- Role of Iran -- link to Shiite Govt. Shiite
  Militas, Vs. US Vs. Sunni in Iraq Hedging its
  bets various Shiites
• -- Other Countries in region (Sunni) no
  relations Iraqi govt., Suppt. Sunni
• -- US Presence indefinite? Troop Surge since
  Jan. 2007 (decrease violence), 4 super bases,
  Lgst. embassy in world, Iran conflict? (Shiite
  reaction)
• The big battle for Iraq has not yet been
  fought (Civil war), OR Negotiations

3
Surge Success Withdrawal Agreement

• ALL US forces out by 2011
• Restrictions on US forces starting 2009