Carly Jerla

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Risk Assessment Scoping Workshop for the Upper
Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot
Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael
Hayes National Drought Mitigation
Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln
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Components of Successful Drought Mitigation
Plans

• Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
• Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
• Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
• Risk and impact assessment
• Who and what is at risk and why?
• Mitigation and response
• Programs and actions to reduce future drought
  impacts
• Programs and actions during drought events

Most drought plans contain only the monitoring
and response components.
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Risk Assessment Purpose

• To identify those sectors, population groups, or
  regions most at risk from drought, most probable
  impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce
  impacts to future events.

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http//drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf
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Components of Drought Risk Assessment

• Hazard

• Risk

• Vulnerability

• x

(social factors)
(natural event)

• Where does the water come from?
• Who uses the water?

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Hazard Assessment(Understanding Drought
Characteristics)

• Review of all available climate resources
• Historical analyses frequency, intensity,
  duration, spatial extent
• Temporal trends
• Review available natural resources
• Streamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks, groundwater,
  etc
• Water use characteristics

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Vulnerability Assessment

• Impact Assessment
• Social
• Environmental
• Economic
• Causal Assessment
• Temporal Trends

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Impact Assessment Subcommittees

• Colorado
• Municipal Water
• Wildfire Protection
• Agricultural Industry
• Tourism
• Wildlife
• Economic Impacts
• Energy Loss
• Health

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Impact Assessment Subcommittees

• Nebraska
• Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife
• Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy
• New Mexico
• Agriculture
• Drinking Water, Health, and Energy
• Wildlife and Wildfire
• Tourism and Economic Impact

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Impact Assessment Subcommittees

• Hopi Nation
• Range and Livestock
• Agriculture
• Village Water Supplies
• Environmental Health

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ChallengesRisk not all impacts are equal
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(No Transcript)
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Risk and Impact Lessons

• Stakeholders
• Reduces conflicts between water users
• Promotes support
• Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk
• Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time)
• Look Back and Look Ahead
• Identify particular baselines
• Triggers for decision-making