Population Projections

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Issues in the Transition to a CO2-Neutral Economy
Mark D. Levine Division Director Environmental
Energy Technologies LBNL Workshop Solar to
Fuel Future Challenges and Solutions March 28
29, 2005
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Objectives

• Provide insights into global scenarios of energy
• use and greenhouse gas emissions and
• Address question role of energy technology in
• preventing big problems

Topics

• Background
• Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions
• Policy China example

New Yorker
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Background

• Current global energy use 400 Exajouoles/yr
  (United States is 25)
• Per capita energy use
• 11.5 kW (U.S.) 5 kW (W. Europe) 1.5 kW
  (developing country)
• Energy production and use accounts for 80 of
  greenhouse gas
• emissions
• Pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in
  atmosphere 280 ppm
• current level is 370 ppm (1/3 higher), growing
  at gt1.0 percent per year
• No controversy about fact that this increase
  has anthropogenic source
• Doubling of carbon in atm from pre-industrial
  levels gt initial 2 deg C
• increase (3.5 deg C increase at steady state)
  in global temperature
• although climate change models still need much
  improvement, this
• average result has been best estimate in
  all major studies since early 1970s
• major impacts likely to be caused by increased
  frequency of events such as
• hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and
  sea level rise rather than
• simply temperature changes

New Yorker
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Scenarios

• In my view, there is a need to rethink approach
  to energy and carbon emission scenarios
• The current approach, exemplified by the
  Special Report on Emissions Scenarios by the
  IPCC, is flawed
• like previous approaches, no attention is given
  to the underlying causes of energy use (e.g.,
  refrigerators efficiency, size, saturation
  steel mills processes, efficiency, tonnes of
  steel, uses of output)
• even more problematical, this work involves
  statistics on analyses of uncertain meaning
• ___________________________
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

New Yorker
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Scenarios
Global energy-related and industrial CO2
emissions historical development and future
scenarios, shown as an index (1990 1).
Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 2000. Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios. London Cambridge University Press.
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Scenarios

• Presentation today is for first phase of new
  work,
• based on macro economic considerations
• On-going work addresses global demand for
  energy
• services
• Example 1 refrigeration size, saturation, and
  efficiency of refrigerators
• Example 2 air conditioning climate thermal
  characteristics of building saturation and usage
  of air conditioners efficiency
• Example 3 steel demand for steel including
  materials substitution efficiency of
  steel-making processes mix of recycled vs. steel
  from ore

New Yorker
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Population Projections
All scenarios assume the same population
projections (source World Bank). All scenarios
break the world into ten regions as defined by
LBNL.
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Scenario Description
Scenario 1
Scenario 2

• North America and Western Europe remain near
  their current per capita energy usage.
• The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and
  0.5x the European level in 2075.

• North America and Western Europe decrease 0.5
  per year from 2000 per capita energy usage
  through 2075.
• The rest of the world approaches 1x, 0.75x, and
  0.5x the European level in 2075.

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Scenario 1A Assumed per Capita Energy Usage
North America fixed at 2000 level. Europe fixed
at 2000 level. Rest-of-world matches Europe in
2075
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Scenario 1B Assumed per capita Energy Usage
North America fixed at 2000 level. All of Europe
and Pacific OECD reaches European 2000
levels. Rest-of-world reaches 0.75Europe in 2075
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Scenario 1C Assumed per Capita Energy Usage
North America fixed at 2000 level. All of Europe,
and Pacific OECD, reaches 2000 European level in
2075. Rest-of-world matches 0.5Europe in 2075
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Scenario 2A Assumed per Capita Energy Usage
Energy use in North America and Europe declines
1/yr per capita from 2005 Rest-of-world matches
Europe in 2075
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Scenario 2B Assumed per Capita Energy Usage
Energy use in North America and Europe declines
1/yr per capita from 2005 Rest-of-world reaches
0.75(Europe in 2075)
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Scenario 2C Assumed per Capita Energy Usage
Energy use in North America and Europe declines
1/yr per capita from 2005. Rest-of-world reaches
0.5 (Europe in 2075)
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Comparison Total Primary Energy, Scenario 1
A/B/C compared to Scenario 2 A/B/C
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Carbon Emitted per Unit of Primary Energy for All
Scenarios
Baseline assumption carbon emitted per unit of
primary energy will continue to decrease at its
historic rate of 3.6 per decade
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Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Concentration in 2100, Different Scenarios
Assumes that for each unit of carbon emitted from
2000 to 2100, atm carbon increases by 0.5 units,
as in past decades Does not consider effects of
major changes in carbon content of energy supply
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Policy

• Story of China
• illustrates a remarkable policy success
  1980-2000
• shows tremendous policy challenges today
• by its size and economic growth, will lie at the
  center of the policy matters
• technology policy
• internal (Chinese) energy policy
• international climate change policy

New Yorker
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Energy efficiency policies and investment in
energy efficiency achieved remarkable results in
China
Energy Use, Actual and Projected at 1977
Intensity, 1952-1999
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Major reversal in China since 2001
Theres been a dramatic change with very
serious consequences
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What is to be done?

• 25B/yr investment in energy efficiency is needed
  to cut energy demand growth in half
• Restoring energy efficiency investment to early
  1980s level (that is 10-15 of supply
  investment) would be 6.5B/yr
• Actual investment is 3B/yr!
• 4-6B/yr investment in energy efficiency may be
  sufficient if policies bring forth the remaining
  needed investment

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What policies will produce the needed
investment?

• Energy Efficiency Policies
• targets for energy efficiency for industries,
• building energy standards,
• appliance efficiency standards,
• auto fuel economy standards, and
• Incentives for new transport infrastructure (bus
  rapid transit).
• Supporting Programs and Policies
• technical guidance
• utility demand-side management
• good economic signals
• Investment Incentives
• for whatever is not paid for by consumers (above)

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Conclusion

• If we are to reduce emissions of
• greenhouse gases to acceptable levels,
• everything is important
• Policies
• Energy efficiency technology
• Zero-carbon supply technology

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Carbon Emissions per Unit of Primary Energy
Three Scenarios of Future Development
Decrease in carbon emitted per unit of energy
produced (percent decrease per decade)
I II III
2000-2019 3.6 3.6 3.6
2020-2039 3.6 4.5 6
2040-2059 3.6 5.5 8
2060-2100 3.6 7 10
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Projected Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Concentration in 2100, under Different Scenarios
of Carbon per Unit Energy
Assumption for each unit of carbon emitted from
2000 to 2100, atmospheric carbon in 2100
increases by 0.5 units.