EXTREMES AND CEOP

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EXTREMES AND CEOP

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Extremes

• Background
• A fundamental aspect of the water and energy
  cycle is the occurrence of extremes. 
• Big Issues
• 1. How can we improve our understanding and
  prediction of extremes?
• 2. To what extent will the types, distributions,
  and impacts of extremes change in a world with an
  altered climate?   
• We envision Extremes addressing both of
  these issues
• It will address extremes within the present
  climate system
• This foundation will allow us to contribute to
  assessments of their future occurrence

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Extremes and CEOP

• Overall objective
• To advance our understanding of hydro-extremes
  including their occurrence, characteristics,
  evolution and inter-connections for prediction
  and for addressing societal concerns

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The Focus of Extremes During CEOP

• Extremes of Interest
• Drought
• Floods and heavy precipitation
• And, in some instances
• Inter-meshing of extremes

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SIMPLE UPDATE

• Who is carrying out some type of extremes
  research?
• What aspect of extremes?
• What needs to be done?
• How we move forward?

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WIDE INTEREST

• RHPs or regional projects that are addressing
  extremes include
• drought CPPA, DRI, LPB, MDB ... 
• heavy precipitation/flooding  CPPA, DRI, LPB,
  BALTEX, MAHASRI, NEESPI ...

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MDB and Drought

• Through Helen Cleugh
• A substantial amount of research on drought in SE
  Australia as well as other regions
• Over SE Australia, the recent drought exhibited a
  spatial and temporal structure which varied in
  space and time
• - decline in late autumn and early winter
  further south and west
• - is more late summer early autumn farther
  North and East.
• Forcing mechanisms are likely to differ from one
  region of SE Australia to another

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BALTEX and Extremes

• From Hans-Joerg Isemer and Ole Christiensen
• BACC Climate Change Assessment hasextreme events
  included
• Several critical parameters
• Temperature, precipitation, wind

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TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION EVENTS
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Others

• CPPA
• LPB
• MAHASRI
• AMMA

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DROUGHTS and CANADA
case study of an extreme event 1999-2005 30
investigators
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The CanadianPrairies
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Drought Occurrence Southern Prairies
(1915-2002)
SPI
PDSI
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DRI(Canadian Prairie drought)
2001/02
500 km
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BIG ISSUES

• Given the 1999-2005 drought, some key issues
  include
•  
• 1. What maintained it over multiple years?
•         
• 2. What governed its actual structure?
•         
• 3. Why did it end?
•  
• And, what was the role of the cold season a
  natural Canadian focus
•        
• 4. What did prediction systems 'miss and why?
• 5. Given this progress, how can we better cope
  with drought?

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LARGE SCALE ACTUAL PATTERNS
1999
2004
Summer 500 mb
2002
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PRECIPITATION
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DRI (flooding at the end of the drought) St.
Jean de Baptiste, Manitoba July 2005
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SEASONAL PREDICTIONSSummer of 2005
OBSERVATION
PREDICTION
Above Normal
Below Normal
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PARTNERS AFFECTED BY DROUGHT

• Some of our current partners are
• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
• Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development
• Alberta Environment
• Canadian Forestry Service
• Environment Canada (several components)
• Health Canada
• Manitoba Hydro
• Manitoba Water Stewardship
• Natural Resources Canada
• Saskatchewan Research Council
• SaskWater
• Saskatchewan Watershed Authority
• and others

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EXTREMES IN CEOP
T
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OTHER EXTREME FEATURES
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WORKSHOP

• Objective To advance our extremes activity
• Key issues will be
• review the precise objectives of the Extremes
  activity 
• update the extremes work being carried out in
  CEOP, GEWEX and (hopefully) WCRP
• synthesize progress to better address overall
  objectives
• chart next steps
• Timing week of May 19, 2008 (tentative)
• Location Vancouver

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LINKAGES

• Within CEOP
• many activities are within RHPs
• Within GEWEX
• collaboration on data and models for extremes
• Within WCRP
• a key issue
• Beyond GEO

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IN SUMMARY

• Hydrometeorological extremes are of critical
  importance
• Within CEOP, we are addressing some of the key
  issues associated with these extremes

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And thank you for your attention