Strategic Development Plan: Managing for Better Results

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• Strategic Development Plan Managing for Better
  Results
• Presentation by Civil Society
• Economic Strategic Sectorpresented by Juvinal
  Dias
• Timor-Leste Development Partners Meeting
  (TLDPM)
• Dili Convention Centre, 25-26 July 2014

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Petroleum income so far
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Timor-Leste doesnt have much oil
TL already exported Timor-Leste TL without Sunrise Aust-ralia
Oil and gas reserves per person 510 barrels 800 barrels 310 barrels More than 1,180 barrels
Will last for how long at 2012 production rates 14 years 5 years More than 58 years
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If we keep going as we are, Timor-Leste cannot
afford its budget in only 12 years.
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Recurrent spending keeps going up
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77 of GDP is from oil and gas
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Non-oil GDP is stagnant
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Petroleum Dependency

• Projected state revenues in 2014.. 2,380
  million2,213 million (93) will be from oil
  (incl. 770m investment return) 166 million (
  7) will be from non-petroleum sources
• 2014 State Budget 1,500 million
  903 million (60) will be taken from the
  Petroleum Fund in 2014.430 million (29) more
  is from the Petrol. Fund in the past and future.
• Non-oil GDP in 2011............. 1,047
  million Petroleum GDP in 2011.. 3,47
  8 mill. (77) Productive (agriculture
  manufacturing) GDP . 179 m (4) and
  dropping
• Non-oil balance of goods trade 535m imports,
  16m exports (98 coffee)
• Petroleum income goes to the state, not the
  people.

Only South Sudan, Libya (and Equatorial Guinea?)
are more dependent on oil and gas exports than
Timor-Leste is.
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Import dependency
Import Exports (non-oil) Power plant
imports Imports of U.S. dollar notes
Importa Sistema Elétrika Nasionál
This graph shows legal goods trade only. More
than 80 of donor spending and 50 of state
spending goes overseas.
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The 2014 budget doesnt prioritize education,
agriculture or health
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Budget execution through 24 July 2014
Transfers Capital Development Minor
Capital Goods services Salaries benefits
Million US dollars
The green target in the back represents the
amount which would have been spent if execution
was uniform throughout the year.
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Revenue sources in 2014 budget1.5 billion total
Total revenue 1,500 million, of which 89 comes
from oil and gas in the past, present and future.
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What do 630,000 Timorese people age 15-64 do for
work?
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Many children will become youth
Timor-Leste has problems finding jobs for the
16,000 young people who will achieve working age
during 2014.
In 2024, 28,000 more people will seek work each
year, and the oil and gas may be gone. Todays
youth will have children of their own.
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When VVIPs come, who pays?
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Oecusse Special Economic Zone

• What are Oecusses competitive advantages?
• Can ZEESM justify investing 4 billion?

Who will benefit Oecusse residents or political
leaders?
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Overbuilding ports and airports

• IFC is encouraging Timor-Leste to build a port
  and airport far beyond realistic traffic
  expectations.
• How will the country pay for a 6 billion annual
  trade deficit after the oil is gone?

Traffic forecast for Tibar Port
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Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project

• In 2010, TL began the South Coast Petroleum
  Corridor.
• During 2011-2013, TL spent 35 million
• Total project costs could exceed 2 billion (much
  more if Timor-Leste pays for the refinery,
  pipeline or LNG plant).

• The new budget allocates 46m in 2014 and 320m
  in 2015-2018, but leaves a lot out.

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Thank you.

• You will find more and updated information at
• Lao Hamutuks website http//www.laohamutuk.org
  
• Lao Hamutuks bloghttp//laohamutuk.blogspot.com
  /
• Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring
  and Analysis
• Rua Martires do Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-Leste
• Mailing address P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-Leste
• Telephone [phone] (mobile) 670 3321040
  (landline)
• Email info_at_laohamutuk.org

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State Budgets 2002-2014
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Cash balance, spending and Petroleum Fund
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Timor-Leste doesnt have enough oil and gas
wealth to meet our needs
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Year-on-year inflation, per GDS