Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its Consequences

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Biomedical Longevity Revolution and its
Consequences

• Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
• Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
• Center on Aging
• NORC and the University of Chicago
• Chicago, Illinois, USA

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Trends in Life Expectancy at 60Females

• Source Human Mortality Database

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Longevity Revolution through Biotechnology and
genetic engineering

• "... it may soon be possible to delay both aging
  and age-related disease in humans." (p. 162)
• The Longevity Revolution The Benefits and
  Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert N.
  Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

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Longevity Revolution (2)

• "The present level of development of aging and
  longevity research justifies an Apollo-type
  effort to control aging ... (p. 187)

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Longevity Revolution (3)

• "Enthusiasts over the future of cell, tissue, and
  organ replacement imagine successive,
  comprehensive reconstitutions of the body.
  Replacement or regenerative medicine would push
  death back, presumably indefinitely. (p. 401)

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Longevity Revolution (4)

• " "Indeed, some believe that humans can master
  their evolution. Among them is Aubrey de Grey of
  Cambridge University, who suggests a life
  expectancy of five thousand years by 2100 17.
  (pp. 13-14)

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New academic journal on
life-extension and rejuvenation

• Fully indexed by MEDLINE
• Latest Impact Factor is 4.138

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Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed?

• Because it requires serious funding
• and commitment
• "It is sheer foolishness to imagine that we can
  extend life ... without substantial governmental
  participation" (p. 11)
• in 2007 only about 15 to 20 percent of
  approved grants were funded, depending on the
  institute. I believe that at least 30
  percent of approved grants (if not more) should
  be funded. ... When funds are tight, review
  committees act too cautiously and conservatively.
  Funds should be available to support risky
  research. (p.106)

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Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (2)

• Today less than 1 percent of the entire federal
  budget is spent on medical research. Both to
  improve health and control costs, I propose that
  3 percent of the nation's overall health bill
  (1.8 trillion projected as 2005) or 54 billion
  be available to NIH for medical research from
  federal revenues. I also propose that of Medicare
  expenditures, 1 percent (or 3 billion) be
  devoted to the National Institute on Aging.
  (p.110)

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Why Longevity Revolution may be delayed? (3)

• While the numbers I am suggesting may seem
  extraordinary, I believe the level of scientific
  progress in the field since the 1950s justifies
  such a program, which could be dubbed the Apollo
  Program for Aging and Longevity Science.
  (p.110)
• "An orbital jump in financing of science is
  required to advance longevity and health as well
  as national wealth. (p. 118 - 119)
• Reference The Longevity Revolution The Benefits
  and Challenges of Living a Long Life. By Robert
  N. Butler. 553 pp. New York, PublicAffairs, 2008

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General Prediction

• Effective life-extending technologies may appear
  within our lifetime
• However they will be initially expensive and not
  readily available
• Therefore, 'longevity risk' will be particularly
  high for persons who are HEWM
• Healthy (at baseline)
• Educated
• Wealthy
• Motivated
• It is conceivable that such HEWM people may reach
  life expectancy of about 120 years in a
  foreseeable future.

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What May Happenin the Case of Radical Life
Extension?
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Rationale of our study

• A common objection against starting a large-scale
  biomedical war on aging is the fear of
  catastrophic population consequences
  (overpopulation)

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Rationale (continued)

• This fear is only exacerbated by the fact that
  no detailed demographic projections for radical
  life extension scenario were conducted so far.
• What would happen with population numbers if
  aging-related deaths are significantly postponed
  or even eliminated?
• Is it possible to have a sustainable population
  dynamics in a future hypothetical non-aging
  society?

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The Purpose of this Study

• This study explores different demographic
  scenarios and population projections, in order to
  clarify what could be the demographic
  consequences of a successful biomedical war on
  aging.

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"Worst" Case Scenario Immortality

• Consider the "worst" case scenario (for
  overpopulation) -- physical immortality (no
  deaths at all)
• What would happen with population numbers, then?
• A common sense and intuition says that there
  should be a demographic catastrophe, if immortal
  people continue to reproduce.
• But what would the science (mathematics) say ?

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The case of immortal population

• Suppose that parents produce less than two
  children on average, so that each next generation
  is smaller
• Generation (n1)
• Generation n
• Then even if everybody is immortal, the final
  size of the population will not be infinite, but
  just
• larger than the initial population.

r lt 1
1/(1 - r)
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The case of immortal population

• For example one-child practice (r 0.5) will
  only double the total immortal population
• Proof
• Infinite geometric series converge if the
  absolute value of the common ratio ( r ) is less
  than one
• 1 r r2 r3 rn 1/(1-r)

1/(1 - r) 1/0.5 2
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Lesson to be Learned

• Fears of overpopulation based on lay common sense
  and uneducated intuition could be exaggerated.
• Immortality, the joy of parenting, and
  sustainable population size, are not mutually
  exclusive.
• This is because a population of immortal
  reproducing organisms will grow indefinitely in
  time, but not necessarily indefinitely in size
  (asymptotic growth is possible).

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Method of population projection

• Cohort-component method of population projection
  (standard demographic approach)
• Age-specific fertility is assumed to remain
  unchanged over time, to study mortality effects
  only
• No migration assumed, because of the focus on
  natural increase or decline of the population
• New population projection software is developed
  using Microsoft Excel macros

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Study population Sweden 2005
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Mortality in the study population
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Population projection without life extension
interventions
Beginning of population decline after 2025
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Projected changes in population pyramid 100 years
later
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Why Life-Extension is a Part of the Solution,
rather than a Problem

• Many developed countries (like the studied
  Sweden) face dramatic decline in native-born
  population in the future (see earlier graphs) ,
  and also risk to lose their cultural identity due
  to massive immigration.
• Therefore, extension of healthy lifespan in these
  countries may in fact prevent, rather than create
  a demographic catastrophe.

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Scenario 1Modest scenarioContinuous mortality
decline

• Mortality continues to decline with the same pace
  as before (2 percent per year)

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Changes in Mortality, 1925-2007
Swedish Females. Data source Human Mortality
Database
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Modest scenarioContinuous mortality decline
An example for Swedish females. Median life span
increases from 86 years in 2005 to 102 years in
2105 Data Source Human mortality database
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Population projection with continuous mortality
decline scenario
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Changes in population pyramid 100 years later
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Scenario 2

• Negligible senescence after age 60

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Radical scenario No aging after age 60
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Population projection with negligible senescence
scenario
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Changes in population pyramid 100 years later
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Conclusions on radical scenario

• Even in the case of defeating aging (no aging
  after 60 years) the natural population growth is
  relatively small (about 20 increase over 70
  years)
• Moreover, defeating aging helps to prevent
  natural population decline in developed countries

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Acknowledgments

• This study was made possible thanks to
• generous support from the National Institute on
  Aging, and
• stimulating working environment at the Center
  on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

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Acknowledgments

• This study was made possible thanks to
• generous support from the SENS/Methuselah
  Foundation

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Longevity

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• Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory
  of aging and longevity. In Handbook of the
  Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition
  (published recently).