Vulnerability to Climate Change

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Vulnerability to Climate Change

• Habiba Gitay
• World Bank Institute
• The World Bank

www.worldbank.org/climatechange www.worldbank.org/
wbi
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IPCC defines vulnerability as

• The degree to which a system is susceptible to,
  or unable to cope with, adverse effects of
  climate change, including climate variability and
  extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
  character, magnitude, and rate of climate
  variation to which a system is exposed, its
  sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

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Climate change has many characteristics and
affects countries in many ways
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Impacts - already occurring low income
countries most affected
Drought Flood Storm Sea-level rise Impact on Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All low-lying Island States Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan
Middle income countries
Low income countries
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Proportion of people affected by climate related
disasters
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People affected by floods and droughts in Africa
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Major development sectors affected/vulnerable

• Water its availability
• Agriculture options to reduce adverse impacts
• Urban - Direct e.g. heat-waves, flooding
• - Indirect e.g. rural to urban migration
• Infrastructure Damage and decreased lifespan
• Coastal Storm surge, sea-level rise, saltwater
  intrusion
• Natural systems Damage, failure to regenerate
  (e.g. after frequent fires)

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Agriculture Impacts Are Likely to Worsen Over
Time additional challenges and vulneabilities
Percentage change in agricultural yields between
now and 2050 Source WDR 2010
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Health impacts by 2040
By 2030
Increased mortality due to malnutrition,
infectious and respiratory diseases, vector and
water borne diseases, heat related diseases in
many parts of the world
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Scarcity of natural resources and climate Change
could lead to migration and conflict and there
are hotspots
WBG 2007
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Innovation in Carbon Finance Biocarbon Fund
Costa Rica Coopeagri Forestry Project The
project reimburses farmers for environmental
services of biodiversity protection as a result
of reforestation. Payments will be complemented
with the income from the carbon sales. At least
600 farmers in 38 rural communities are currently
associated with Coopeagri, a cooperative of
coffee, sugar cane farmers who have agreed to
introduce forestry production activities in their
farms.
The project is expected to sequester around
0.56Mt C02e by 2017.
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Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR)

• First operational program under the Strategic
  Climate Fund 967million in grants and IDA-like
  resources

Purpose To help highly vulnerable countries pilot
and demonstrate ways to integrate climate risk
and resilience into core development planning
while complementing other ongoing
activities. Participating countries Bangladesh,
Bolivia, Cambodia, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger,
Tanzania, Yemen, Zambia, Regional Programs
Caribbean (Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica,
Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and Grenadines) and
South Pacific (Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga)

• Example Cambodia
• Technical support for mainstreaming climate
  resilience
• Piloting vulnerability assessments and
  investments on an ecosystem basis
• Strengthening data collection on climate risks
• Promoting participation of the private sector and
  civil society

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Working together to reduce poverty and
vulnerability

• Different countries affected differently now and
  in future
• Climate change is an added stress - pushes them
  over the edge
• Marginalised groups - often face multiple
  stresses are most vulnerable
• Reducing poverty will have multiple benefits
  including decreasing vulnerability to climate
  change
• Your parliamentary functions representative,
  legislative, oversight and your leadership role
  in and out of parliament are critical
• MPs can share knowledge amongst themsleves and
  develop guidance to fast track the much needed
  policies and strategies

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Integrate climate change as part and parcel of
sustainable development

• Climate change policies cannot be the frosting
  on the cake of development they must be baked
  into the recipe of growth and social development
• Robert Zoelick, President, The World Bank

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