1
Proving or Disproving Theories

• Theory as methodology

2
Relation of theory to data

• A theory can neither be proved nor disproved
  by data alone.
• It is one of the commonest errors of
  undergraduate research to suppose they can.
• Yet the relation of theories to data is central
  to any empirical science.

3
Lieberson on Einstein, again

• When there is a case, like that of the proof of
  general relativity and the disproof of
  Euclidian space, that implies
• The auxiliary assumptions by which one gets from
  basic principles to observed measures are widely
  accepted.
• Lieberson was arguing that me need to spend more
  time and attention on middle range theories and
  measurements.

4
Theories cannot be proved true

• The fact that a theory predicts correctly does
  not show that the theory is true
• because there are always indefinitely many
  alternate theories for any particular empirical
  finding or body of facts.
• This is true both of very general theories and of
  very specific hypotheses.
• It is a well-known empirical fallacy to argue A
  implies B B is true therefore A is true. If
  all humans are female, then Mary Queen of Scots
  was female she was therefore, all humans are
  female.
• A theory course must make one better able to
  think of alternate theories for any finding.

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Falsificationism Karl Popper

• Popper stressed the fact that if a theory
  predicts falsely, this does imply that the
  theory, as formulated, is false.
• Finding a single black swan shows that it is not
  true that All swans are white.
• Popper argued that good theories are those that
  make many predictions which could have been false
  but which turned out not to be.
• This position is called falsificationism, and is
  accepted, with modifications, by many
  sociologists, such as A. Stinchcombe.

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The point of falsificationism

• Poppers real targets were Marx and Freud.
• He thought that conceptions such as the
  unconscious or latent class struggle were
  dishonest ways of avoiding real tests of the
  theories,
• Which were overly flexible, and could be made
  consistent with any observations, whatever.
• He argued for simpler theories that generated
  hypotheses that could be directly tested.

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Why theories cannot be disproved, either

• The central problem of falsificationism was
  pointed out by one of Poppers students, Lakatos
• The fact that a theory has predicted incorrectly
  shows that there is some kind of problem with the
  theory or with the assumptions used to apply it,
• But it does not show what the problem is.
• Only with indefinitely many auxiliary assumptions
  is any particular data consistent or inconsistent
  with any particular theory.

8
An example the discoveries of Uranus and Pluto

• For Popper, the discoveries of the outer planets,
  not visible to the naked eye, were among the
  great triumphs of Newtonian mechanics.
• The theory was specific enough, so that when the
  know planets orbits were not as predicted, it was
  possible to calculate where additional planets
  would have to be to disturb the orbits in the
  ways, observed.
• But note that Newtonian theory was not rejected,
  but fixed.

9
Dealing with an Anomaly

• When a theory predicts incorrectly, in a way we
  do not understand, that is called an anomaly.
• One solution to the anomaly of Neptunes orbit
  was an additional planet, which was found,
• But many other solutions were possible a dust
  cloud, a magnetic field, a dark body, an optical
  problem, and scientists would never have rejected
  Newtonian mechanics without a superior theory,
  nor should they.
• Theories only make predictions with auxiliary
  assumptions and if one can make these
  arbitrarily, then any theory can be made
  consistent with any data.

10
Dealing with anomalies

• Whenever you apply a theory to data you make
  auxiliary assumptions,
• and the auxiliary assumptions may be
  nonproblematical in any particular case.
• Anomalies have been part of many scientific
  revolutions, such as Einsteins.
• Deciding how to respond to an anomaly is a
  theoretical judgment.
• Usually one makes the simplest, most modest and
  most economical corrections available (e.g.
  measurement assumptions.)

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The main paradigms in sociology

• P. 267-276 of OW shows that the different maps of
  the main theoretical positions in sociology can
  be translated into each other.
• They boil down to two dimensions functional v
  conflict and micro v macro. However
• The 20-odd different sections of sociology such
  as medical sociology contain importantly
  different theoretical positions.
• Any way of dividing the 20,000 or so practicing
  sociologists into a small number of schools is
  bound to simplify

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The main map
Functional macro-theory e.g. Durkheim, Parsons Organizational- macro-theory e.g. Webers rationalization Conflict macro-theory e.g. Marx
Functional microtheory e.g. some aspects of Merton Interactionist micro-theory e.g. Mead Conflict micro-theory e.g. Mills
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Functional theory

• Functional theorists mainly treat society as a
  stable solidary system.
• Durkheim is the classical example.
• Parsons view of social structure as a
  self-maintaining normatively integrated system is
  the main contemporary example.
• There are functional approaches and theories in
  every section and sub field of sociology

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Conflict theory

• Other theorists mainly treat society as a
  competitive system.
• Marx view of modes of production and
  exploitation as replacing each other by a process
  of class conflict is the classic example
• Mills, Feagin, Massey, and Reskin are
  contemporary examples.

15
Organization theories as a Mix

• The interactionist/organization theories stemming
  from Weber, Mead, and others, can be viewed as an
  ambivalent synthesis of elements of conflict and
  functional theory.
• Often the elements that distinguish them from
  functional or conflict theory appear at the micro
  level.

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Micro-theory v Macro-theory

• Micro-theories mainly treat social structure as
  the outcome of individual choices and actions.
• Parsons took Webers action theory as the main
  model.
• Other American sociologists took George Herbert
  Meads interactionism as a model.
• The main difference between rational-action
  theories stemming from Weber and symbolic
  interaction theories, stemming from Mead is the
  nature of the tinker-toy, but they are both
  tinker-toy models.

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Macro-theory

• Macro-theories focus on the fact that humans and
  human behavior is shaped by the social structure.
• This leads to concentrating on how social
  structures influence their members and other
  social structures.

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Theory simplifies to the essential

• It is trivially true that both
• functional and conflict processes operate
• and also that
• individuals create social structures and social
  structures shape individuals.
• However, it is also trivially obvious that any
  theory must simplify, and that models that
  include everything are usually too complex to use
  or test.

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Theory and research I) model specification

• The first set of jobs that theory does is
  called model specification
• One can only test a hypothesis if one can make
  assumptions about what variables are involved and
  what is their causal order.
• These follow from general theoretical
  considerations often they are adopted from the
  existing strand of research.

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Theory and researchII) Domain Specification

• A theory is a claim.
• Usually it applies to some set of cases more
  limited than all social structures in all of
  recorded history.
• Theory involves establishing the domain of the
  theory.
• Statistical interactions are the main clues about
  domains

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Theory and researchIII) Generalization

• Particular findings, empirical generalizations,
  and hypotheses (e.g. Protestants have higher
  suicide rates) need to be related to more general
  processes.
• Conceptualization (e.g. deviance rather than
  crime or suicide) is partly a matter of
  generalizing.

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Theory and researchIV) Explanation

• The conceptualization, and the establishment of
  the conditions and size of the effects is basic
  to establishing what is the mechanism that brings
  it about.
• The main paradigms propose mechanisms.

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Theory and research

• Research establishes that there is an
  association.
• Theoretical questions involve Why? How? and When?
• I.e. what direction does the causal arrow run in,
  under what circumstances, why and how?