Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs, Signals and Lights

1
Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs,
Signals and Lights

• presented to
• Virginia Department of Emergency Management
• by the
• Center for Risk Management of Engineering
  Systems
• October 6, 2000

2
Project Team

• Virginia Department of Transportation
• Travis Bridewell
• Lynwood Butner
• Mac Clarke
• Perry Cogburn
• Jon DuFresne
• Stephany Hanshaw
• Steve Mondul
• Gerald Venable
• Virginia Transportation Research Council
• Wayne Ferguson

3
Project Team (cont.)

• Students
• Ryan Finseth
• Clare Patterson
• TJ Zitkevitz
• Linn Koo
• Richie Moutoux
• Advisors
• Professor James H. Lambert
• Professor Yacov Y. Haimes

4
Overview of Presentation

• Introduction
• Overview of Project and Goals
• Retrofitting and Upgrading Options
• Spares and Reserves Options
• Priority Setting
• Recommendations

5
Motivation

• Why a Recovery Plan is Needed
• Restore mobility and save lives
• Solicit aid from FEMA and FHWA
• Estimate 30-60 billion if categ.4 hit Hampton
  Rds, Richmond, and NoVa (Source 97 Post
  Hurricane Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute)
• Current Plan
• Allows inventory only for routine damage
• Absent rationale for recovery priorities

6
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Categories
7
Hurricane Andrew Impacts Dade County, FL

• Replaced 2,000 signal heads at 400 intersections
• Replaced signs
• 7 Overhead structure signs
• 45 Multipost ground mounted signs
• 169 Single post ground mounted signs
• 5 Span-wire attached signs
• Compared with Groundhog Storms (1998)
• 40 Signal heads
• No damage to signs reported
• Storage of these items is associated with
  scheduled maintenance or upgrades to the system
• Source Fr. Adofo Fassrainer, FDOT-D6 OPERATIONS

8
Hurricane Floyd

• Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in
  mid-September, causing significant flood damage
• 56 deaths made Floyd the deadliest US hurricane
  since Agnes in 1972
• Roads did not receive much wind damage, but
  flooding closed many roads in Virginia

9
Hurricane Floyd Damage
10
Suffolk District

• Interstates 64, 264, 464, 564, and 664
• US Routes 13, 17, 58, 60, 258, 460
• State Routes 44, 164, and 168

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Project Objective

• The goal of the effort is to aid the Virginia
  Department of Transportation (VDOT) in planning
  and management for the hurricane recovery of
  highway signs, lights, and signals through
  assessment of the risks, costs, and benefits of
  alternatives.

12
Project Structure
13
Equipment Upgrade
14
Wind Speed Assumptions

• Not all equipment experience maximum sustained
  wind speed
• Most equipment experience less than maximum
  sustained wind speed
• Few equipment experience wind speeds greater than
  max sustained wind speed

15
Distributions of Damage
16
Three Upgrade Levels
17
Upgrading Costs
communicated with Vince Roney, Suffolk District
18
Upgrading Trade-off Analysis
19
Upgrading Cost Trade-off
20
Spares and Reserves Options
21
Spares and Reserves

• Motivation
• Currently VDOT and others prepare for low level
  damage
• New spares and reserves leads to faster, cheaper
  post-hurricane recovery
• Objective
• Assess the costs and benefits of inventory options

22
Spares Options

• Options in terms of of damageable equipment
  currently installed on roadways

23
Spares Cost Analysis

• Pre Hurricane Costs
• Cost to increase current level
• Annualized cost under low demand
• Yearly storage cost
• Post Hurricane Costs
• Affected by hurricane severity
• Costs under moderate and high demand

24
Post Hurricane Costs
25
Spares Cost Assumptions

• Signs will be produced in-house unless under
  extreme demand (Paul Balderson)
• Sign shops provide signs at cost
• All other equipment will be purchased from
  contractors
• Shops not equipped to produce cantilevers,
  signals, and lights
• Cost of purchasing equipment increases by 2-3
  times under heightened demand

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Obtained Inventory Data
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Investment in Spares vs. Post Hurricane Cost
(Ground Signs)
28
Time to Recovery under Spares Options

• Reduction of Time to Recovery
• Spares and reserves
• Reduction in manufacture and delivery time
• Immediate replacement of equipment
• Data used in calculation
• Manufacture and delivery time
• Installation time

29
Investment in Spares vs. Time to Recovery (Ground
Signs)
Option3
Option2
Option1
Status Quo
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Priority Setting
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Features of Priority Setting

• Importance of roads and intersections based on
  critical facilities and condition of road network
• Restoring or replacing damaged equipment
• Critical facilities are those necessary for a
  communitys well-being

32
Classification of Critical Facilities
33
Critical Facilities
34
Geographic Information Systems

• Build on an existing GIS database of VDOT roads
• Network model in Arcview to create prioritization
  tool
• Using Arcviews Network Analyst for optimization

35
Electronic Road Map

• Two sources for electronic road maps
• VDOTs Network Level Basemap
• Used to establish road system from which network
  model will be created
• Census maps obtained from UVA Library
• Used for geocoding addresses

36
Example of Arcview Map
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Facility Data

• Working with the Hampton Roads Planning District
  Commission to get data on locations of critical
  facilities
• HRPDCs databases are much more complete and
  accurate than any data collection we can do
• Data acquisition and formatting is ongoing

38
Norfolk Facility Data
39
Phases of Preparedness
.
.
.
40
From Map to Network Model

• The Arcview maps need translation to a
  mathematical model
• Data consists of intersections, road segments,
  and various classes of critical facilities
• Mathematical model is in terms of nodes, arcs,
  and levels of supply and demand

41
Optimization of Recovery
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Recommendations

• Consider three remedies
• 1) Upgrading equipment
• 2) Increasing spares and reserves
• 3) Priority setting of roads for recovery

43
Sample of Recommendations

• Upgrading overhead (two pole span) signs on
  critical routes (10 of installed base 35 signs
  )
• Assume pay 3.3 of total cost annually
• Replacement cost per sign 75,000
• Over 30 years

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Sample of Recommendations (cont.)

• Spares for ground signs in Suffolk District
• Assume pay 5 of total cost annually (12,000
  installed)
• Over 20 years

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Recommendations (cont.)

• Notice the problem Hurricanes can cause
  region-wide damage to traffic equipment
• Consider short (days or weeks), medium (months),
  and long-term (years) aspects of recovery
• Short-- Hospitals, Medium-- Schools, Long-- All
• Evaluate different upgrading or spares policies
  by assessing the cost before a hurricane strikes
  and the damage, cost, and recovery time after a
  hurricane

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Recommendations (cont.)

• Adapt spares and reserves to hurricane-center and
  other seasonal forecasts
• Perform impact analysis using the various storm
  categories
• Adopt the models for estimating the costs and
  effectiveness of upgrading and spares policies
• Consider upgrading only routes critical to a
  communitys well-being in a hurricane

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Recommendations (cont.)

• Consider critical facilities throughout the road
  network in setting priorities for recovery
• Consider the following facilities as critical
  emergency, education, government, military,
  operations, commerce, communications, and
  transportation.
• Maintain a web site for support of recovery of
  signs, signals, and lights.