Grand Overview

1
Grand Overview

• Over consumption will lead to resource scarcity
  eventually
• Resource scarcity changes traditional economi
  models and puts us in new territority
• 3. That time is near for fossil fuels as our
  energy foundation
• 4. New solutions do exist implementation
  takes leadership and the ability to think big

2
What has changed in the last Year

• The Obama Unit is now established insufficient
  Federal funding for alternative energy
  infrastructure.
• Optimistic discovery potential of new NG reserves
  keeps on BAU pathway
• Despite a massive corporate oil spill in the Gulf
  BAU continues unabated
• Congress has now proved ineptness at large scale
  budget issues

3
Resource Scarcity Depression

• At any given time, humanity always thinks its
  doomed yet we survive
• Dont be depressed be angry and be proactive
• Consume less Subversive messaging works
  convince your peer network to consume less.
• Become Fred

4
Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all
production
Adam Smith right up there with Aristotle!
5
1942 Lecture

• I do not think we will ever escape from the
  appalling squirrel-cage of economic confusion in
  which we have been madly turning for the last
  three centuries the cage in which we landed
  ourselves by acquiescing in a social system based
  upon Envy and Avarice. A society in which
  consumption has to be artificially stimulated in
  order to keep production going is a society
  founded on trash and waste and such a society is
  a house built upon sand.

6
Consumption with a Conscience
7
The traditional Economic Argument Does Not Scale!
8
Wow bet you didnt know this
9
And Now we are at an Interesting Point (50-150
for crude oil) ? worldwide economic volatility
10
The Business As Usual Future whats the point
its time to grow up now
JUST SAY NO TO THIS PATH
11
Continued Climate Change
12
What Are the BAU Options?

• LNG development
• Clean Coal
• Fast Breeder Reactors
• Unconventional Oil sources (shale oil and tar
  sands)

• Fastest gateway to energy economy
• Leads to Growth of GDP
• Accelerates Global CO2 Deposition
• Reinforces BAU mine the planet

13
Breaking out of BAU

• Consume less
• Drive less
• Plan ahead
• Invest in Renewable Energy infrastructure
• Have long term governmental goals

• Requires some component of morality based
  decision making
• Requires leadership
• Requires world cooperation

Is this just too Damn Hard to Do? So we run away
from it?
14
But Many Options Now Exist

• Solar PV
• Solar CSP Solar Thermal Electric
• Wind (ON shore and Off Shore)
• Alternative Fuels (biodiesel, ethanol (grain and
  celluolistic, hydrogen, hybrids)
• Biomass Co-Generation
• OTEC Gulf Current

15
Barriers to Renewables

• High capital cost long payback times
• Lack of any vision or out of the box thinking on
  truly large scale projects
• NIMBY reactions to anything and everything makes
  implementation difficult
• Technology uncertainty
• Electrical Grid limitations

16
Solar Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Resource is available
• CSP technology rapidly improving
• Many small scale applications
• Thermal Electric is dispatchable
• Can co-locate with Fossil Plan

• Cons
• Large /Watt installation costs
• Large Scale (1000 MW or greater) facilities
  difficult
• Requires Significant Energy storage for 24x7

17
Wind Pros and Cons

• Pros
• Low levelized costs
• Small footprint on the Land
• Applicable on both large and small scale
• Some wind resources is usually always present

• Cons
• Visual Pollution
• Resource is erratic in nature and therefore
  requires energy storage
• Transmission line expense for remote wind farms
  is large

18
Transportation Changes

• Pros
• Single biggest lever arm for energy conservation
• Single biggest lever to mitigate climate change
• Single biggest influence on development

• Cons
• Marx says we cant
• Our whole economic structure is based on private
  vehicles
• Vast amounts of jobs are associated with our
  current structure

19
OTEC Gulf Current

• Pros
• Has enough capacity to sustain world for
  centuries
• In situ Hydrogen Production for transport economy

• Cons
• Gigantic up front costs
• Engineering challenge
• Requires world cooperation

20
Evaluation Rubric For All forms of Renewables

• 1. MW output per surface area (MW/KM2)
• 2. MW output per material use (MW/Ton)
• 3. MW output per job created (Jobs/MW)
• 4. MW output versus production time scale to
  bring on line (months/MW)
• 5. Capital cost per MW (/Watt)
• 6. Realistic Levelized Cost (cents per KWH)

21
To Evaluate Electricity Generating Technologies

• Develop an internally consistent indexing system
  for the 6 attributes listed previously (the dow
  jones is an index)
• Use real world data and real world physics to
  best determine the values
• Weight the indexes appropriately (real world
  cares about /Watt and Jobs Created)
• Choose Baseline we will use Solar in the
  following exercise

22
Indexing - Solar

• 1. 20 (averaged over 24 hour day) 1
• 2. 3 tons per kw 1
• 3. 3 jobs per MW
• 4. 10 MW per month
• 5. 3 per watt real facility cost
• 6. 10 cents per KWH

23
Index Solar Wind Waves Biomass
1 1 10 2 .2
2 1 3 .5 1
3 1 1 1 5
4 1 3 .5 .5
5 1 2 .75 .5
6 1 3 .5 1
Cumulative Index 12(1.5)341.25(5)1.25(6)
24
Relative Ranking

• Solar 7
• Waves 7.5
• Biomass 11 (because of jobs created)
• Wind 24 (because of excellent material ratio
  and low Levelized costs)

25
Thinking Big -Solar

• Sonoran Desert Project

300,000 square km _at_ 2 coverage yields 100,000 MW
26
Thinking Big - Wind
Lake Michigan Wind project down North South Axis
Populate 400 x 30 km box with 30 legs each
containing 1200 5 MW turbines 180,000 MW
27
Thinking Real Big - Wind
Great Prairie Wind Farm with 100 MW vertical Wind
Turbines Construct 10,000 of these (Space
Needle Size) and each per 125 square km. This
produces 1TW of electricity and effectively
replaces all other forms of electricity
generation in the US.
28
Be Optimistic

• Change can occur this class is part of this
  process
• Individual attitudes matter and multiply this
  is where informed peers matter!
• European Union is providing a good example of
  government driven initiatives for a new energy
  economy ? Temporary World economic set back
• Technology is rapidly improving but investment
  needs to be sustained
• Nanotech is important, very important.
• Wisdom can be re-acquired remember Fred!
• We aint dead yet!