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• ?????????? ??????? ????? ???????? ?????????????
  ???????? ???????????? ?????????
• Climate warming new problem of subpolar public
  health in Russia
• ????????? ????? ?????
• Prof. Boris Revich

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???????? ??????????? ?? ?????????? ??????
????????????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ??????
1936-2005 ??. (www.meteorf.ru/klimat05)
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T Yakutsk-1950-1995
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????????? ? ???????? ??I ???? ?????????
??????? ??????? ??????????? ??????? ??? ????????
???????? ??????Expected by 2050 Increments of
Annual Average Temperatures in Russian Regions
?????? Region ??????? ?????????? ????????????? ??????????? º? Temperature Increase, º?
??????????? / Central 0.5-1.0
??????-???????? /North-West 0-1
????? ???/European North 2-3
??????????? ????????? /Arctic Coast 2-3
???????? ??????/West Siberia 3-4
??????/Yakutia 2-3
??????? ??????/Far East 1-2
???????????? ?????? ?? ????????? ?????????
??????? ????????????????? ??????, National Report
on Climate Change, Ministry of Economic
Development, 2003
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????????? ??????? ? ???????? ? ???????? ??????
???????????? ???????????

• !!!??????????????? ????????? ???????? ?? ?????
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• ?????????? ???????? ?? 12-15, ???????????
  ??????? ?? 160-200 ?? ????????
• ??? , ??????, 2001, ??????? ???
• !! ?????????? ?????????????? ???????? ??
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• ! ????????????????, ?????????
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?????????? ???????- ???????????? ???????????
????????? ????????? ???? ? 1999 ???? ???????
??????????? ????? ??????? ????????????? ?
???????????? ????????, ?????????????? ????.
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????????? ????????? ???? ? ?????? ? 1999 ?.
?????????
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????????? (gt 500 ???????, 38 ???????) ?????????
(gt 90 ???????, 5 ???????) ????????? (gt 40
???????, 3 ??????).
?.?.????????, ???? ????????????? ?? ??
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???????? ?????????

• Ø ????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ????????? ?????? ??
  ????? (??????-????? ??????)
• ???? ?????????????? ???????? ??????????? - ?
  ??? ?????????? 5-10 ???. ???????
• ?????????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????-????????? ?
  ???????????? ????????. ??????? ??????????
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• Ixodes Persulcatus ????? ????????? ????????
  ?????? _!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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??????????????? ?????????

• ????????? ????-?????.
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• ????????? ? ?? ??????????? ? ??????????????? ??
  ?????.

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????? ??????? ????????

• ????????? ????
• ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ???????????????
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?????????? ?? ?????? ??????
1998, ??? ??????????? ??????? ?. ?. ????? ???????????? 10 ???. ???????
1998, ??? ?????, ?????? 172 ???. ?????? ? ???? ?????????? 475 ???. ???????, ???????????? 50 ???. ???????, t ???? 1 3 ? ???? -10 -12 ?, ????
2001, ??? 8/06/2006 ?????, ?????? 172 ???. ?????? ?????? ?????????, ?????? ????????? 23 ???. ???????,???????? ?
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T and Public Health Arctic and Subarctic
cities, 7 - more 100 thous. peoples13 - more 20
thous.peoplesUrban population -2 2000th
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Project Climate, Air Pollution and Mortality in
Moscow in 2000-2005

• Center of Demography and Human Ecology of
  Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of
  Science, Moscow
• Environmental Monitoring
• Meteorology Observatory of Moscow State
  University
• Environmental Defense (USA)

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Source Moscow Environment and Climate Reference
Book, 2003, vol.1, 173.
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Summer vs. winter concentrations of ??10, NO2 and
O3 in 2000-05, ug/m3 (MosEcoMonitoring data)
Winter Summer
?? 10 30,7 33,0
NO2 42,0 35,4
?3 19,3 26,2
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Regression Equation of Daily Pollution on Daily
Temperature

• Pollution Const ßTlag e

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Summer (2003 2005)Regression coefficients of
proportionality between NO2 and T with different
time lags in days
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Summer (2003 2005) Regression coefficients of
proportionality between PM10 and T with different
time lags in days
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Summer? and Concentrations wave in August of
2004
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Winter (2003 2005) Regression coefficients of
proportionality between PM10 and T with different
time lags
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Number of days with extremely high (in summer)
and extremely low (in winter) daily average
temperatures in 2000 2005
Threshold for temperature anomaly 20.2 21.8 20.1 - 13.2 - 16.4 - 14.7
June July August December January February
2000 5 2 0 0 3 0
2001 4 20 7 10 0 4
2002 8 21 8 12 3 0
2003 0 12 4 0 6 3
2004 3 4 14 0 0 2
2005 3 7 8 0 0 0
2006 10 18
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• Summer Heat Waves
• 2001 and 2002.
• Energy system failure,
• Black-out of May 25th, 2005

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Heat wave of July01 and consequent increase of
daily mortality from all causes, all ages
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Moscow, Summer02

• Extremely high temperatures 16 days with daily
  ?max above 29 ?, accompanied with smog situation
  27 days with haze, high level of air pollution
• Low visibility on highways
• Airports in Moscow Region closed for weather
• Smell of smoke, empyreuma
• Eye irritation, breathing problems, headache,
  etc.

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Results of regression analysis T-related
increase in daily mortality

• Total mortality of males
• Yt 146 (1.180.45)T0
• IHD of males
• Yt 33 (0.510.19)T0

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Results of regression analysis
temperature-related increase in daily mortality

• Cerebrovascular diseases of males
• Yt 23.6 (0.60.2)T0 ,
• Yt 14.7 (0.980.19)T-1
• (T-1 temperature on previous day )
• Mortality of males from external causes Yt
  18.9 (0.400.19)T0

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Health consequences of heat wave in July02

• 632 additional deaths
• as direct result of heat wave

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Moscow. May 25th, 2005

• Warm weather
• Accident at thermal power station
• Sharp increase of PM10 concentrations from
  average value of 33 ug/m3 to extreme of 71 ug/m3,
  NO2 concentrations within the norm
• (MosEcoMonitoring data)

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Cold wave January06

• Age group 75
• 142 additional deaths
• from all causes ( except external),
• including 61 additional deaths
• from IHD

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?, air pollution and mortality in Moscow in 2002
2005

• 4 causes included in the analysis
• All cases, except external
• IHD (I20-25)
• Cerebrovascular diseases (myocardial infarction,
  cerebrovascular accidents) (I 60-69)
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases (bronchitis,
  emphysema, asthma, asthmatic status) (J40-47)

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Seasonal variations of mortality from all causes
(except external) in age group 75. 30-day
moving average for 2000 2004
Winter 2000
Winter 2001
Winter 2002
Winter 2003
Winter 2004
summer 2000
summer 2001
summer 2002
summer 2003
summer 2004
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?-mortality curve for Moscow and T of maximum
comfort (2000-2005)
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Daily Mortality-T relationship in Moscow, 2000 -
2005

• Moscow
• linear decrease from -20 to 19 ? Revich,
  Golub, Shaposhnikov, 2006
• London
• linear decrease from 0 to 150C
• Keatinge, Donaldson, 2001

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Results of regression analysis

• and risk factors
• Temperature increase above maximum comfort
  (19º?)
• Temperature decrease below maximum comfort
  (19º?)
• Increments of daily average concentrations of
  PM10,, NO2, and O3 by 10 µg/?3

• Relative risks were calculated for
• 8 causes of mortality
• (4 causes and 2 age groups)
• and time lags
• 0, 1, , 6 days

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Examples of relative risks of variation of daily
average temperature by 1ºC
Cases RR of summer heat (Tgt20ºC) RR of cold temperatures (Tlt19ºC)
All causes (except external), all ages 2.8 (2.0 3.6) -0.44 (-0.40 -0.48)
Chronic lower respiratory diseases, all ages 8.7 (0.7 16.7) -1.31 (-1.75 -0.87)

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Relative risks of mortality per 10 µg/?3 increase
of daily average concentration of pollutant
Causes Age group PM10 NO2 O3
All (except external) All ages 0.48 - 0.57
All (except external) 75 0.96 0.39 -
Chronic lower respiratory All ages - - 4.9
Chronic lower respiratory 75 - - 7.8
IHD All ages 0.76 - 1.10
IHD 75 1.11 - -
Cerebrovascular All ages 0.94 0.66 1.55
Cerebrovascular 75 1.39 1.02 1.23
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• Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in Russia
  
• North territories make about 64 of total area
  of the RF
• Cold discomfort
• Cardio-vascular system
• Respiratory tract
• Mortality from frostbite
• In Russia, about 1,500 people die from frostbite
  every year, predominantly males over 20y.o.
• There are no deaths cased by frostbite
  registered in European countries with cold
  climate (Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland,
  Iceland)

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Climate Change and Human Health in Russian Arctic
Region

• Infections diseases - Infrastructure break-downs
  in cryolite zone !
• Emergence and new infectious diseases and
  parasitosis of sea mammals and humans ?
• Change in food dietary problems ?
• Changes in air quality - ?
• Problems with traditional hunting of northern
  aborigines - !

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WWF-Russia climate programme
Observations of Climate Change Made by Indigenous
Inhabitants of the Coastal Regions of Chukotka
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Majority of people survived have noticed climate
changes
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Vladilen Ivanovich Kavry 39 years of
ageChukchiMarine Mammal Hunter
Has noticed significant climate changes. Ice
breaks up a month earlier than it did before.
Old ice no longer exists. Walrus stay longer
at haul out sites. Birds depart later.
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Required research of climate/health in Russia

• Infectious diseases and T relationship
• Mortality and T relationship in different climate
  zones (North, Siberia, Far East)
• Climate warming and traditional crafts in Arctic

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The following documents should be prepared

• National Climate Health Impact Assessment
• Scientific Report about Climate change and health
  at Russian Arctic
• National Climate Health Action Plan
• (as French Plan Canicule, UK, Germany, Spain,
  Finland, etc.)

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??????? ?? ???????? !
Thank you for attention!!