Bruce S. Kristal, PhD

1
Long-Range Disease Risk Prediction Algorithmic
Information Fusion in a Life and Death
Environment

• Bruce S. Kristal, PhD
• Dept of Neurosurgery, Brigham and Womens
  Hospital
• Dept of Surgery, Harvard Medical School

2

• Industry Affiliations
• (Disclosure per Partners Healthcare policy)
• Related
• ThermoFisher My lab has an LTQ-Orbitrap, we
  beta-test SIEVE, some work done in collaboration.
  
• I also collaborated for years with ESA, Inc
  (1995-2005), which has since been acquired by
  ThermoFisher. Ongoing discussions
• Unrelated
• Additional consulting Mead Johnson (Consultant,
  inactive), MARS Petcare UK (consultant,
  inactive), Kelloggs (also, gift)
• Metabolon/Metabolomics Consultant/Equity,
  Post-sales Royalties
• (IP agreements for ten patents via/Cornell Med)

3
Caloric Intake and Disease

• Humans
• Increased BMI associated with increased risk of
  neoplasia, type II diabetes, cardio- and
  cerebro-vascular disease
• Laboratory Rodents
• Low calorie diets increase longevity and delay
  morbidity

4
Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults Between 1985
and 2010

• Definitions
• Obesity Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher.
• Body Mass Index (BMI) A measure of an adults
  weight in relation to his or her height,
  specifically the adults weight in kilograms
  divided by the square of his or her height in
  meters.

5
Obesity Trends Among U.S. Adults Between 1985
and 2010

• Source of the data
• The data shown in these maps were collected
  through CDCs Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance
  System (BRFSS). Each year, state health
  departments use standard procedures to collect
  data through a series of telephone interviews
  with U.S. adults. Height and weight data are
  self-reported.
• Prevalence estimates generated for the maps may
  vary slightly from those generated for the states
  by BRFSS (http//aps.nccd.cdc.gov/brfss) as
  slightly different analytic methods are used.

6
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1985
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
7
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1986
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
8
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1987
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
9
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1988
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
10
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1989
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
11
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1990
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
12
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1991
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519
13
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1992
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519
14
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1993
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519
15
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1994
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519
16
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1995
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519
17
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1996
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519
18
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1997
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 20
19
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1998
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 20
20
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1999
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 20
21
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2000
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 20
22
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2001
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 25
23
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2002
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 25
24
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2003
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 25
25
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2004
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 25
26
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2005
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
27
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2006
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
28
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2007
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
29
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2008
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
30
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2009
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
31
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2010
(BMI 30, or 30 lbs. overweight for 5 4
person)
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
32
Obesity Trends Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1990,
2000, 2010
(BMI ?30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 54
person)
2000
1990
2010
No Data lt10 1014
1519 2024 2529
30
33

• In 1990, among states participating in the
  Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 10
  states had a prevalence of obesity less than 10
  and no state had prevalence equal to or greater
  than 15.
• By 2000, no state had a prevalence of obesity
  less than 10, 23 states had a prevalence between
  2024, and no state had prevalence equal to or
  greater than 25.
• In 2010, no state had a prevalence of obesity
  less than 20. Thirty-six states had a prevalence
  equal to or greater than 25 12 of these states
  (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana,
  Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South
  Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia)
  had a prevalence equal to or greater than 30.

34
Citations

• Mokdad AH, et al. The spread of the obesity
  epidemic in the United States, 19911998. JAMA
  199928216151922.
• Mokdad AH, et al. The continuing epidemics of
  obesity and diabetes in the United States. JAMA
  200128610151922.
• Mokdad AH, et al. Prevalence of obesity,
  diabetes, and obesity-related health risk
  factors, 2001. JAMA 20032891769.
• CDC. State-specific prevalence of obesity among
  adults United States, 2005. MMWR
  200655(36)9858.
• CDC. State-specific prevalence of obesity among
  adults United States, 2007. MMWR
  200857(28)7658.
• CDC. Vital signs State-specific prevalence of
  obesity among adults United States, 2009. MMWR
  20105915.